By Ric Chapman
It would be stating the bleeding obvious to say, everyone with a horse in the Cup each year has a puncher’s hope of winning the coveted race.
But the reality is that certain trainers have both better horses and better preparations.
So, based on that fact, let’s look at trainers as a way to determine this year’s winner.
I’ll divide them into local and International trainers whose records support them being the ones to get behind this year.
LOCAL TRAINERS
CIARON MAHER & DAVID EUSTACE
They have to be top of the list for the sheer fact they trained last year’s winner in GOLD TRIP (Outstrip-Sarvana) who may well win again this year.
Once you get a taste for Grand Slam Gr 1 victory you chase it again and again and the boys have this old boy going even better than last year. He is a must to have in your numbers.
The duo will also saddle lightweight, FUTURE HISTORY (Showcasing-Likelihood) who has a great chance too.
He likes to go forward and lightly weighted horses, especially those with European form behind such as this bloke has, are very hard to beat down the running. And this guy led all the way to win the Gr 3 Bart Cummings over 2500m and then was less than a length behind Cleveland in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup. He is very fit.
And, you can throw in their dark horse, RIGHT YOU ARE (So You Think-Leica Ding) whose Gr 1 Caulfield Cup run when finishing solidly for 5th was a real gem. He’s also weighted to run a big, big race on Tuesday. Finally, INTERPRETATION (Galilo-Daldiyna) won the Gr 3 Bendigo Cup over 2400m for them last starting fast time.
DANNY O’BRIEN
Has also won the Cup with old VOW AND DECLARE (Declaration Of War-Geblizit) and it would be a brave man to say he can’t win again following his last two runs which have been pearlers. Both times he fought home hard to finish 2nd – in the Gr 1 Caulfield Stakes behind Alligator Blood in very fast time and last start in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup. He is cherry-ripe again this year.
CHRIS WALLER
Looks to have a pair of chances too, and he has also won the Cup with Verry Elleegant so knows what it takes. This year he has SOULCOMBE (Frankel-Ribbons) whose preparation screams out, ‘back me on Tuesday.’ He was 3rd in the Gr 1 Turnbull over 2000m which is a massive Melbourne Cup pre-race, then was a solid 7th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup, beaten 5 lengths, which has also been a great lead up race. And Waller also has the Irish import MORE FELONS (Churchill-Pivotalia) who has had one start in Australia thus far and was an eye-catching 5th in the Geelong Cup, beaten half a length. He will strip much, much fitter for the Cup.
ANTHONY & SAM FREEMAN
Have long been considered master trainers of stayers, especially Anthony who goes back to the days when the Freedman Bros dominated everything including Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Anthony, with his son Sam, produced this year’s Gr 1 Caulfield Cup winner WITHOUT A FIGHT (Teofilo-Khor Sheed) who does look the one they all have to beat this year on Tuesday. He is a world class stayer and showed that when 2nd up he outstayed a really strong Caulfield Cup field.
GAI WATERHOUSE & ADRIAN BOTT
Looks to have a pair of chances too, and he has also won the Cup with Verry Elleegant so knows what it takes. This year he has SOULCOMBE (Frankel-Ribbons) whose preparation screams out, ‘back me on Tuesday.’ He was 3rd in the Gr 1 Turnbull over 2000m which is a massive Melbourne Cup pre-race, then was a solid 7th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup, beaten 5 lengths, which has also been a great lead up race. And Waller also has the Irish import MORE FELONS (Churchill-Pivotalia) who has had one start in Australia thus far and was an eye-catching 5th in the Geelong Cup, beaten half a length. He will strip much, much fitter for the Cup.
INTERNATIONAL TRAINERS
WILLIE MULLINS
He has been here before from his base in Ireland and has run a place in the Cup a few times. He brings one of the toughest, fittest horses on the planet to the race this year in VAUBAN (Galiway-Waldfest). He’s carried 75.5kg in Gr 1 hurdle races and run well, and he’s won his past two flat starts, both times carrying 61kg, latest in Ireland over 2414m at Gr 3 level. He’s been training at Flemington in recent weeks and the locals say he is a monster who just runs and runs and runs. Similarly, his other runner ABSURDE (Fastnet Rock-Incroyable) is a very good stayer too carrying Frankie Dettori and 60.5kg to victory in the great 2816m Ebor at York. He must be considered too.
JOSEPH O’BRIEN
Who has also won a Melbourne Cup, will present VALIANT KING (Roaring Lion-Assembly). He has form around Vauban in Ireland finishing 2nd to him in that Gr 3 race and has shown us how close that form is to our best because he ran a solid 6th in the recent Gr 1 Caulfield Cup on debut in Aussie. The stable’s other runner OKITA SOUSHI (Galileo-Amicus) was beaten 10 lengths in the Caulfield Cup in his first race here so may struggle in the big race.
ALLAN SHARROCK
Is from New Zealand and brings LADIE’S MAN (Zed-Just Polite) who is by the same sire at Verry Elleegant. And he can stay all day too having last start won at Gr 1 level over 2040m at Hastings and last prep was 3rd on a slow track in the 3200mm Auckland Cup.