Gr 1 – Melbourne Cup

Any horse trained by Joseph O’Brien has to be considered and this bloke seems well above average. Won his past 2 starts by big margins. Both races over 2816m, latest the Gr 1 Irish St Leger. That is winning form for this. But, he’s drawn very deep and the pace will be a cracker from the get go. That may upset his rhythm. I do think if he gets cover, however, he will be making good ground late.

Heavily tried to win this race last year and after having a nice run, stormed into it at the clock tower but failed to stay it right out missing a place. Seasoned now and he ran the great Via Sistina to a nose in the 2040m Gr 1 Cox Plate last start. Form is outstanding this time up and has power when he accelerates but that lack of 3200m power may test late again with this weight.

Loves it wet. Moved into it as they turned in the Gr 3 Bendigo Cup last start but plodded late to finish 8th under 61kg. This is considerably harder. But, did win the Gr 1 Sydney Cup earlier this year in record time by a big space. If the clouds open, he has a chance but probably not otherwise.

He is talented but has had a few cracks at this race and not been seen. Should nearly have won the Gr 1 Metrop over 2400m in October when 5th, but then in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup same trip, he didn’t run on at all finishing 8 lengths behind the winner Half Yours carrying 6kg more than that horse. Meets him 3kg better. Probably not going to finish in the frame here although he has drawn perfectly and if it’s wet his chances improve.

Japanese visitor who can stay and has run a fast time this trip, but not been near a winning chance in 4 starts this year in Japan. Resumes here and does have handy fresh stats. Not keen, though.

Will be hard to beat. And, being a big grey horse you will see him clearly in the run. Resumed from a  spell in France over 3000m in Gr 3 Kergorlay and was an encouraging 3rd, then came to Australia and raced a little wide but doing best work late when 4th to Half Yours in the 2400m Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Carried 5kg more than the winner that day and was beaten just on 2 lengths. Meets Half Yours better 2.5kg here. Drawn perfectly too. Big threat especially if the track is damp.

He has had a prep that has put sufficient miles into his legs but has a habit of being slow early which then puts him in a bad spot. But, he can stay and can produce a finish and is with a master trainer. Showed a glimpse of form last start over 2040m in the Gr 3 JRA Cup at The Valley when 3rd, beaten 1.8 lengths in fast time under 60kg. If he jumps and finds a spot midfield he might be a player here at big odds.

Has only ever won 2 races in his life. English trained galloper who can stay all day. After running 3rd at Kempton Park in England over 2412m he came here and ran a patchy race finding a few blocked lanes before winding up 9th, beaten 4.5 lengths in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Meets the winner that day, Half Yours, 2.5kg better and will like Flemington better. But, has drawn poorly

Looks one of the main hopes. Always smothered in behind runners throughout the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup when beaten 3 lengths by Half Yours. Meets that horse 2 kg better here and can stay all day. Has again drawn perfectly and if he sees clear room in the straight he is dour, tough and weighted well enough to make a charge late. Did run 5th in this race last year carrying 52.5kg.

Interesting German runner. He has won on synthetic, heavy, slow, good and fast tracks in France, Germany and the US. Latest effort was a runaway win in the States over 3319m carrying 57kg in the $1.6million Bowling Green in August. Hard to line up that form here but he didn’t run fast time. Drawn awkwardly so probably goes back looking for a spot which will be hard to find. Has great fresh stats though.

Last year he was placed in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup before running 8th in the Melbourne Cup. This year he was last in the Caulfield Cup so not likely to bother these.

Old timer who is probably the pace in the race but looks tested over the final 300m. Led and beaten into 4th in the Gr 2 Herbert Power then last start on speed before weakening to 8th in  much easier Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Not likely.

Is a front-runner so has no option other than speeding out of the gates here from this barrier and trying to cross the field. And that should bring him undone. Led the Gr 3 Geelong Cup field for a good way under 60kg before wilting late beaten 4 lengths. Big drop in weight here but the trip is the major concern.

So many things point to a win here by this very much in form galloper. Sat off pace then just crushed a similar Gr 1 field in the Caulfield Cup. Goes up 2kg for that win but his form is outstanding. Only slight, very slight, concern for me is, he moved up to win the Cup last start by a big margin but seemed to get tired over the last 75m. The pace will be on here in earnest from gate rise so if the trip is a concern that will show up. To mitigate that, he has drawn to receive a great, economical run and can sprint. Big show.

Dour stayer who has no option but to drop out early from the barrier. Is in form and can run on. Trip and track look to suit him too. Will be a long way back on the bend but will be running on. Rough place hope.

Came here last year with a reputation as a smart stayer and duly easily won the Gr 3 Geelong Cup before going into this race as a $7 chance with 51kg. Ran well but was 12th beaten 6 lengths. Did make ground as he was near last on the bend. This time around, won the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Finished hard. Can stay so expect him to run on late.

Lightly raced English stayer who can run home hard. Drawn perfectly and is weighted to run a big race. Won over 2715m at Newbury in a Gr 3 quite easily then beaten 4.5 lengths when plodding 6th in the Gr 1 St Leger. Can he run this trip with the speed on all the way? That’s the big question but he’s improving all the time. Place.

US staying star. Has raced 11 times for 4 wins but steps up to Gr 1 here, an international Gr 1 at that where the pace will be on in earnest from gate rise. Has good form though and has won at 2816m. That was last start in August at Saratoga. Has very good form on wet tracks. This is many lengths harder than he’s experienced and although he has one of the best riders in the world on top and has drawn absolutely perfectly, he should find it tough over the last 200m.

Smart stayer on his day and finally found form last start when a game 2nd to Onesmoothoperator in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Was doing best work at the finish but this is much harder. Has been placed at Gr 1 level over 3200m in last year’s Sydney Cup, though, so can plug on late.

Interesting runner. She can run all day and has never carried this light a weight, plus Joseph O’Brien trains her which means she is ready to fire up. Form is strong too winning 3 of past 5 and placing in the others. Against her, however, are factors like: she has drawn very wide which is a worry, she hasn’t run fast times which means the breakneck speed here will cause her concern, especially if she races wide, and her form is against 2nd tier runners in England. Place at best.

Mare who is ready to fire and if Beau Mertens can pop her out, move up and find a spot on the fence or one off in about 5th place by the time they run past the post the first time, she will be the one to beat. Is absolutely ready to peak here. Can stay all day. Was on speed and kept fighting when all others on pace weakened when beaten half a length by Half Yours in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. The winner stormed past her with 200m to go but she kept clawing back and will strip fitter this time. Meets him 2.5kg better off. Looks the winner for mine.

Can Robbie Dolan win two Melbourne Cups in a row? Hmm, probably has a great shot at it here on this bloke who is in great form having won with Robbie in the saddle two starts back in the Gr 1 Metrop. Then close up and encouraging 5th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Well weighted here but draw is a concern. Will have to find cover against these. Place.

Has found form at the right time and is a definite lightweight hope. Ran home hard in fast run Gr 3 Bart Cummings over 2520m here and 2nd to Valiant King carrying 1.5kg more than him then franked the form with a brilliant win in the Gr 3 Geelong Cup, which is always a good lead-up race to this, from Gilded Water. Drops 5kg and if Celine can find a spot and turn him off, he has a great chance.

Is the best weighted horse in the race. And if he runs like he can, he can win this. Where will he be in the run from this good gate? Probably punches up and stays one off in about 15th spot, turned off and travelling sweetly. Loves this track and has a powerful finishing burst when his mind is on the job. The expected fast pace will help too. Won here brilliantly in fast time two starts back over 2520m and was flashing home when 3rd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup behind Half Yours who he meets 1.5kg better. Huge chance.