Top Five Melbourne Cup Hopes

It’s Beginning To Look A lot Like – Cup Time!

By Ric Chapman

Trying to find the Gr 1 Melbourne Cup winner two weeks before the race is always tough.

As we saw just prior to the Cox Plate, accidents can happen.

But, for the purpose of this exercise, we’ll look after the many people who like to have a name, put it in their mind early, so when Melbourne Cup talks and time for betting rolls around, they have an opinion.

So, here we go.

Here are the Top 5 chances I think leading into the Cup this year. Just as a caveat though, Via Sistina is still in the field at the time of writing this, but I think she may go to Hong Kong and miss the Cup. If, however, she runs in the Cup, she will win.

Outside of her, these are the five.

There is a thought that the 3200m at this level is a bridge too far for him. But, he has, like Verry Elleegant did a few years ago, way, way more class and speed than any horse in the race. He is very fit, was 2nd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup which is always the best Melbourne Cup lead-up race, and in that race he met with both near the home turn and should have won. To me, he looks a cut above the rest but there is that doubt about the distance.

This English visitor is very tough, in form and very fast late. These are essential elements for a Cup winner. His turn of foot on his Aussie debut in the 23 October, Gr 3 Geelong Cup over 2400m, was Melbourne Cupesque. He carried 54kg that afternoon, was travelling in 5th until the bend then just exploded. He’s won over 3319m in England so can stay well enough. Some Europeans just grow a leg when they come to our sunshine and run in the way we do, and I suspect this bloke may be one of them.

A lot of people will question this bloke, based on the fact he gets back, runs on but never seems to win. Plus, can he run 3200m hard? Well, I think he can. He is peaking at the right time. He will be midfield hopefully with cover, smoking his pipe, and his run under 59kg in the WFA Cox Plate when 6th to Via Sistina, was a far better trial for this than most would think. He covered a lot of ground over the last 600m and he still ran a fast last 400m. With the right run, he is in this finish.

Is from Europe and has been here a little while now so has acclimatised. Showed that with a really solid, impressive win on pace last start in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. He beat Serpentine and Smart And Sharp that night and really just looked much better than them. Looks to have improved a lot this prep and is coming ripe at the perfect time.

This bloke is the dark horse because he can stay all day and he is tough. Wasn’t at his best when with 51kg he wore down Zardozi to win the Gr 1 Metrop over 2400m in October then came to Melbourne and was a really good 3rd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup after being on speed and travelling a little wide as they turned. Should be supremely fit now and last year it must be said, he did very easily win the 2600m St Leger at Randwick.

Of course, barriers will play a role and the weather too come race day which may well bring Vaubani who is in great form and tough Sydney stayer Athabascan into the frame, but by and large the above quintet to me stand out.