HOW TO PICK A WINNER FOR THE MELBOURNE CUP
The Melbourne Cup is the race “that stops a nation” and every Australian, New Zealander and increasingly around the world tries to find that elusive winner each year for bragging rights against their fellow punters.
It is the cultural highlight of the Australian turf where fashion, socialites, sports stars and traditionalists join each other for the best 3 minutes plus on the Australian racing calendar where another horse, rider and trainer are written into history.
Everyone has an opinion on finding the winner of the great race, favourite number, colour of the horse, a name that you can associate with or a premonition, but history tells us there are some key factors that have proven over the years to offer and advantage in determining who can win the great race.
At Palmerbet we have identified some key features in a horse’s history that gives him/her a distinct advantage when the barriers open. Increase your chances and study the following to give you an advantage in finding the Cup winner.
HANDICAP WEIGHT
One of the unique features of the Melbourne Cup is that it is a 3200m (2 mile) race run under handicap conditions. The Victoria Racing Club, under the auspices of Racing Victoria, allocate a handicapper who will assign a weight to all horses entered based on their age and past performances.
The idea of handicapping horses is to make the race a level playing field which ensures a close contest. Weights are allocated by the handicapper after nominations close in mid-September.
The horses with superior form will carry more weight than horses with inferior form based on the opinion of the handicapper.
It is very difficult for a horse carrying top-weight to win a Melbourne Cup. In the last 20 years only Makybe Diva (2005) and Gold Trip (2022) have carried saddlecloth number 1 carrying the highest weight.
One of the keys to finding a Cup winner is identifying a horse that may have improved since weights were allocated and as such has been given a light weight. On 2025 the two horses which looked to get under the guard of the handicapper look to be Sir Delius (55.5kgs) and Half Yours (51kgs) who have both made an impressive start to the Spring.
AGE
The Melbourne Cup is open to all horse three-years-old and upwards at Group 1 level. The youngest horses have the least winning record in the Melbourne Cup with three-year-olds lacking the strength and conditioning to get a strong two miles. The last three-year-old to win was Skipton (1941).
What to look for is the seasoned gallopers who have the miles under their legs with five-year-olds having the most successful winning record that includes last year’s winner in Knight’s Choice.
The next best age groups to look for are the four-year-olds on the way up and six-year-olds who are strong experience gallopers.
SEX
Males have a big advantage in Melbourne Cups throughout history, particularly geldings who have won 7 of the last 10 Cups.
The last mare to win the Melbourne Cup was Verry Elleegant (2021) but prior to her winning you need to go back to the three time winner in Makybe Diva who completed the treble in 2005.
So if trying to simplify your selections, look for geldings as the superior sex when finding the winner.
LEAD UP RACES
For a long time in history the best lead-up to the Melbourne Cup was the Caulfield Cup run 2 ½ weeks prior to a Melbourne Cup. Although the Caulfield Cup can still be a vital guide, the references for winners has changed particularly with the recent domination of the field with International raiders.
The last three winners of the Cup all contested the Caulfield Cup but two of them had another start before the first Tuesday in November.
Some races to watch before making a decision are the Caulfield Cup, Geelong Cup, W.S.Cox Plate, Irish St Leger, The Valley Cup, Turnbull Stakes, GB Ebor Handicap.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN RECENT FORM
Recent form is vital in finding the winner of the Melbourne Cup. In the last 12 running’s of the Cup on one winner (Knight’s Choice (2024)) has failed to finish in the top 4 in one of his previous two starts (and that was a luckless 14th in Caulfield Cup).
Look at the quality of races the horse has been running in and particularly how they have been finishing their races off to ascertain if they can run a strong 2 miles.
DISTANCE
Probably the biggest factor in determining the winner of the Melbourne Cup is if they can run a strong 3200m (2 miles). There are not many flat races on the Australian calendar that are run over that distance so to identify a local runner assess their form over 2400m and beyond.
The Europeans are likely to have the better form over the longer distances as they have more opportunities.
A horse may have more ability than their rivals but if they cannot stay they are unlikely to be winning a Melbourne Cup.
BARRIER
An important factor in the Melbourne Cup can be at the barrier draw. It is a long run down the Flemington straight before taking the first turn but it is crucial that a rider gets his horse to relax without working hard in the early stages and a wide barrier can undo all the planning.
Who can forget when the winning jockey Michelle Payne had her little brother Stevie draw barrier 1 for Prince Of Penzance (2015) and that was the winning moment as the horse and rider had a dream run from the perfect gate.
Wait for barrier draw before making your final selection.
TRACK CONDITIONS
In 1976 the Melbourne Cup was nearly cancelled when a thunderstorm dropped a deluge of rain on the track and the racing conditions were extremely heavy. Many horse’s chances are soured if they cannot handle wet ground so if there is any rain about on Cup Day sit down and identify the horses that have either won on wet tracks or shown they can handle the conditions.
In contrast if the Melbourne weather is kind and the track is firm then the Internationals chances can be diminished as they are used to the soft conditions back home.
The track conditions is vital for a runners chances.
INTERNATIONALS
The Melbourne Cup was always a race that “stops a nation” but after Vintage Crop (IRE) came across from Ireland with and Irish trainer and Irish rider and triumphed in the 1993 the world has changed and the race became an International destination.
Up until 1993 the International raiders were considered to be the New Zealanders who had, and still have, great success in this grueling test but since then the race has been won by the Japanese (Delta Blues 2006), French (Americain 2010, Dunaden 2011), Germans (Protectionist 2014) and the United Kingdom have been dominant over the last 10 years.
Always hard to assess the form of the Internationals but their success suggests they can never be left out of chances.
Whatever you preference is when finding the winner of the Melbourne Cup ensure you head to the Palmerbet App and secure the best odds.