Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 $1m Gr 1 ATC Oaks with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Randwick R6- $1million ATC Oaks (3YO F) 2400m
1. PENNYWEKA (11) 3×41839231
T; Jim Wallace / J: Damian Lane (56kg)
Yet another star filly from NZ. And is a powerful stayer. Won the NZ Oaks in a breeze by 3 lengths. Is consistent, strong, a hard finisher and likes the mud. Ticks all the boxes. Big threat.
2. PAVITRA (2) 115322×512
T: Team Freedman / J: James Mcdonald (56kg)
Is a star stayer and the one they all have to beat. Led and run down late when 2nd in the Gr 1 VRC Oaks. Won Kembla Classic by a big space and last start hit front in straight only to be claimed late by a superstar in Prowess. Looks the real deal.
3. FIREBURN (4) 2x554x6943
T: Gary Portelli / J; Tyler Schiller (56kg)
Star multiple Gr 1 winning filly who came home along the fence in the Gr 1 Vinery like a future Oaks winner to finish 3rd. Doesn’t have any issues with track or heavy and seems to have the distance down pat too. Looms as a major threat.r home.
4. POLYGON (5) x124511x67
T: Lance Noble/ J: Brett Prebble (56kg)
Is one of NZ’s best 3YO fillies with multiple Group wins behind her. Is now 3rd up here after plodding 7th to Prowess in the Gr 1 last start. Much fitter now.
5. ARTS (10) 101
T: Ed Cummings/ J: Hugh Bowman (56kg)
How good is she? That’s the only question that needs to be asked after she just donkey-licked them in big lead up 2000m race last week. Was having just 3rd start that day. If she has improved she will win.
T: Team Snowden / J: Sam Clipperton (56kg)
Might well be a dark horse here. Ran home very gamely from well back when 3rd in Kembla Classic over a mile. Then last start did the same when grabbing 4th to Prowess in the Gr 1 Vinery. Has claims.
7. SOUL CHOICE (1) 2122118
T: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott /J: Tim Clark (56kg)
Interesting filly. Took Tassy by storm earlier this year winning the Oaks there then led and folded when 8th to Prowess in the Gr 1 Vinery. If left alone in front on home track may just take some catching.
8. SO DAZZLING (15) 5130×820
T: John Sargent /J: Joao Moreira (56kg)
When big odds rattled home for 2nd in the Gr 2 Kembla Classic over 1600m behind Pavitra. Then got back and just didn’t run on when 10th to Prowess. This is just as tough.
9. BYRON BELLE (8) 2479×1025
T: John Sargent /J: Kerrin McEvoy (56kg)
After winning maiden at Canterbury her form has been patchy but has been in some good company. Plugged on ok in Gr 1 Vinery last start when 5th to the brilliant Prowess. Rough place show.
10. PREMISE (6) 8×2113
T: John O’Shea / J: Tom Marquand (56kg)
Has ability and may have a lot of it. After comfortably winning a Gosford maiden, did the same thing at same track in 1900m Cl 1. Last start was thrown into the Gr 3 Adrian Knox and rocketed home from last to finish 3rd. Came down best part of the track though.
11. MOUNTAIN GUEST (9) 22×8352
T: John Sargent / J: John Allen (56kg)
John Sargent is a master trainer of fillies to stay and this one might be right in this. Started $31 and was sent to the lead early, hanging tough and running 2nd to Arts in Gr 3 Adrian Knox. Can stay but this is harder.
12. FRANKIE’S ME DAD (3) 83110
T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace /J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg)
Well bred filly who looked good winning Newcastle maiden, then same track a Cl 1. But did weaken last start in the Gr 1 Vinery over 2000m when 11th to Prowess. This looks harder.
13. JOLTED (14) 7×8441
T: John Sargent /J: Tom Sherry (56kg)
Is going to find this hard even though she was far too strong winning maiden last start. Can stay and is on home track. Will be in it for a while.
14. STORMY WITNESS (12) 52×130
T: Danny Williams / J; Robbie Dolan (56kg)
Not likely after running 12th last start to Prowess in Gr 1 Vinery over 2000m.
15. FAY’S ANGELS (13) 317×007437
T: Karen Owen / J; Reece Jones (56kg)
Looks completely outclassed, although saying that did finish well at 100/1 when 7th to Arts in the mud last start over 2000m.
