Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 the $1.5m Railway Stakes with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Ascot R8 – $1.5million Winterbottom Stakes (3YO+) 1200m
1. ROTHFIRE (3) x5543x1528
T: Rob Heathcote / J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg)
Outstanding Queensland sprinter capable of winning easily on his day. But this trip west seems to bring a lot of these eastern seaboard stars unstuck. Saying that, he has drawn perfectly, is suited at WFA and is in form. Respect.
2. VILANA (12) x1151x181
T: James Cummings / J: Jamie Kah (58.5kg)
Rising star on the way up. Just toyed with a good field in Sydney last start. Long trip to be here but he is showing top grade form and is only 4th up here. Looks the one to beat if he races up to his latest form, but caution – is coming back 100m in trip.
3. PAULELE (16) 03322×6180
T: James Cummings / J: Ben Melham (58.5kg)
Pretty hit and miss but can win on his day. Drawn awkwardly so may have to go back early and then circle these. That should prove a problem. On the other hand if he charges early to find a spot may end of 3-deep all the way. Tough bet, but has talent.
4. ELITE STREET (7) x1113x11x4
T: Dan Morton / J: Brad Rawiller (58.5kg)
Has the finishing power to win this. Was near last turning for home when flashing home for 3rd in this race last year. Since, had 3 runs, for 2 wins against a few of these. Made a long hard dash last start when 4th to This’ll Testya giving her 5kg. Meets her 3 kgs better and could run right over the top of these with clear running.
5. THE ASTROLOGIST (2) 2633×64636
T: Team Corstens / J: Willy Pike (58.5kg)
Perfectly drawn and should be a length off the pace all the way on the fence smoking his pipe. Is a top line sprinter on his day. If he has travelled over from the east in good style I see him being the one to beat down the running. Respect this horse.
6. MASSIMO (11) 73x4833x31
T: Team Cangemi / J: Brad Parnham (58.5kg)
Has talent and always is well supported these events. Local star who is 3rd up after two terrific runs to get ready including a powerful front-running display to land the Gr 2 Lee Steere Stakes over 1400m. Is tough, has won 5 times at this track and looks a great show.
7. RED CAN MAN (17) 4x222x6482
T: Steve Wolfe /J: Shaun McCruddy (58.5kg)
Really consistent, tough, well-travelled star who goes particularly well this grade. If he gets in from this horror draw he is a major player. Up on speed when close 2nd to This’ll Testya last start and meets her a kilo better. Have in your numbers.
8. STAGEMAN (5) 2722×29904
T: Adam Durrant J: Clint Johnstone-Porter (58.5kg)
Generally races well at this level. Likes to get back and run on but has a great draw here and is 4th up so may be a few pairs closer in the run than usual. If so, can get into the clear as they turn and run on hard. Was 4th to Massimo last start over 1400m at level weights.
9. INDIAN PACIFIC (15) 436x86x033
T: Nev Parnham / J: Paul Harvey (58.5kg)
Likes to press forward from gate rise and will have to do that from this wide draw. And that may be his undoing as he will have to work very hard. Placed past two runs against many of these but is a little suspect at the trip at this level.
10. BEAU ROSSA (8) 27x47x99x4
T: Will Clarken / J: Todd Pannell (58.5kg)
Pretty smart, certainly good enough to be in this finish when at his best. Trouble is he is 2nd up here and hasn’t shown up solidly this level for a fair while. May struggle late.
11. HOT ZED (6) 53x426x491
T: Steve Miller /J: Brad Parnham (53kg)
Another who likes to get back and run on. Did look smart in a much, much weaker race last start here this trip, winning in fast time with a big weight. Has had trouble with these top horses in the past though.
12. KISSONALLFORCHEEKS (14) 2104×31606
T: Dan Morton / J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg)
Melbourne mare who has been freshened for this and is in a new stable. Can make ground fast late but is coming back from 1600m at Gr 1 level last start when 6th at Flemington, to this shorter race. Sure to be making ground late.
13. MISS CONTEKI (13) x2x113x115
T: Simon Miller / J: Pat Carberry (56.5kg)
Very smart mare. Form is most consistent and her finishing power is to be admired. Has form around all the locals here and from this gate probably drops back to be about 12th for home. Don’t be concerned though as she is very smart late. Have in your numbers.
14. THIS’LL TESTYA (9) 2511x5x221
T: Mitch Pateman / J: Lucy Warwick (56.5kg)
Good mare who has gone to a new level this time up. And that level may well be Gr 1. Came from the clouds last start to claim the Gr 3 Colonel Reeves over 1100m beating Red Can Man. Just seems to be relishing her racing and trip looks ideal. Should be about 6th for home – close enough to launch.
15. SNIPAROOCHY (1) 414121×11
T: Stephen Miller/ J: Jason Brown (56.5kg)
Hmmm, this is an interesting animal. She is very fast early and from this gate has the opportunity to find the front and dictate. Has done that at past two starts winning easily but they have been in much easier events. Is very honest but is she up to the finishing power of these Gr 1 horses? Time will tell.
16. MY BELLA MAE (10) 111
T: Dion Luciani / J: Steve Parnham (51.5kg)
Is going to take some beating. Massive rise in class here but has raced 3 times for 3 easy wins and latest at stakes level in very fast time. Carries no weight here and can sit back in about 5th spot to the bend. Will she finish off against this grade? Probably yes, given the weight and the times she has run. Getting better with racing too. Big danger.
17. TITAN BINDERS (4) 3350×54225
T: Team Gangemi/ J: Shaun O’Donnell (58.5kg)
Tough on his day and is in form. Likes to be handy all the way and if he gets a run from this gate he should be right there all of the way. Will be big odds but certainly not the roughest.