Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1  Flemington VRC Derby with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
Flemington  R6 – $2million Victoria Derby (3YO) 2500m
1. FORGOT YOU (8) 388×31161
T: Trent Busuttin & Nat Young /J: Daniel Moor (57kg)
Top class racehorse in the making and just seems to be a better young stayer than his cohort. Certainly up to 2000m. Has won three of past four starts, against many of these. Looks the goods again if he gets this trip. Big show.
2. TUTUKAKA (12) 2231×851
T: Tony Pike / J: James McDonald (57kg)
Gee this is a good, tough racehorse. In fact he may be a superstar. He just knows how to stay and these Kiwi-bred horses are always tough when they come here to compete in these Gr 1 races. Last start he rounded them up and won with authority at Geelong in the Classic over 2200m beating Character. Respect him.
3. ALEGRON Â (9) 5x025x1543
T: James Cummings / J: Brett Prebble (57kg)
This bloke might be a bit of a sleeping giant. He is bred to stay and he has steadily improved every start this time up. Last start being his best when he did not shirk his task in the Gr 1 Champion Stakes over 2000m running home hard to get 3rd. That was run in fast time so he can finish off. Respect his emerging qualities as he should get a great run behind speed.
4. GUNSTOCK (19) 4×131
T: Mick Price & Michael Kent / J: Jye McNeil (57kg)
Smart galloper who, like all the three above him, looks a likely stayer and improver. Lightly raced which is a big ask over this trip but gee he looked good coming from 5th at the bend to quite comfortably in the end claim the Gr 3 Norman Robinson from El Patroness. Has the pedigree and the recent performances to rate highly here. Â Good hope.
5. AKIHIRO (2) 571×281254
T: Gary Portelli / J: Rachel King (57kg)
Hasn’t won past 1300m and while he looked good when a solid 4th at Gr 2 level to Forgot You over 2040m last start, he might find this grade and trip another matter. Â What he has on his side is the fact he is honest and tries very hard every start. Place.
6. CHARACTER (10) 4×75324142
T: James Cummings / J:Fred Kersley (57kg)
Interesting galloper. Like so many of his rivals he looks to be getting better every run and also as the trips increase. After easily winning a Cranbourne mdn over a mile, he was just behind the speed all the way when hitting the line hard and 2nd in the 2200m Geelong Classic over 2200m. Sure to be handy and run home hard again.
7. JUNGLE MAGNATE (5) 1×823
T: Mick Price & Michael Kent / J: Luke Currie (57kg)
Big chance here because he looks the real deal as a stayer. Just drops his head, relaxes nd can make ground late. Which he did when an eye-catching 3rd to Forgot You in the Gr 2 Vase ov er 2040m last start. Trip shouldn’t be a concern.
8. COMMANDER HARRY (15) 2192
T: Trent Busuttin & Nat Young / J: Linda Meech (57kg)
Enigmatic galloper who can fire up big time on his day. Which he did last start when at $101 he circled the field coming to the bend and hung tough to grab 2nd behind Forgot You and beating Jungle Magnate home. Likes the sting out of the ground. Place.
9. HITOTSU (7) 706×15
T: Ciaran Maher & David Eustace / J: John Allen (57kg)
Off this draw this bloke is going to be handy all the way. His biggest hurdle is the trip. Easily beat Commander Harry winning his maiden over 1300m then straight up in class and grade when a strong 5th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Guineas over a mile last start. Big leap to this trip but the grade may be a little easier. Watch market.
10. CERBERUS (20) 331
T: Team Freedman /J: Damien Thornton (57kg)
Smart galloper in the making. Biggest question is: perhaps this is a prep too soon. He does look very smart though. Did sit behind speed when a tad too strong late for Jungle Magnate over 1800m in the Listed Hill Smith Stakes. Another step in grade and trip here but is bred to stay and looks likely to handle it.
11. GUNDEC (3) 46×216
T: Symon Wilde / J: Craig Williams (57kg)
Gee this is a good story if he wins. Was sold after just two unplaced starts for $10,000 and in three runs since has won $52,000 in prize money. And deserves a shot at this as he won at Flemington over 1800m being on speed all the way. A little disappointing last start when 6th behind Gunstock in the 2000m Gr 3 lead-up to this but we know he’s fit and can run.
12. CLYDE Â (6) 82×41401
T: Gary Portelli / J: Dean Yendall (57kg)
Sydney galloper who has won a couple of bush races but when brought to Gr 1 level, was beaten a long way in the 2000m Champion Stakes. This looks too rich.
13. EL ROCKO (16) 2x738x6526
T: John McArdle / J: Jamie Mott (57kg)
Maiden galloper who has failed in all 8 starts. Not that that is a massive impediment as a maiden won this race last year. Still, this is a strong field this time and he looks tested.
14. RAGING BULL (17) 33×516
T: David Payne / J: Michael Dee (57kg)
Another Sydney-sider down here. He has staying talent too. Pretty much led throughout putting a maiden field to the sword over 2100m comfortably then straight to Gr 1 grade and a courageous 6th in the 2000m Champion Stakes. Trip looks idea but still a question about the grade for him.
15. CHEERFUL MOMENT (14) x5x3218230
T: Lindsey Smith / J: Blaike McDougall (57kg)
Interesting galloper. Is from West Australia and did run a good 3rd when narrowly rolled in a Saturday 3YO over a mile recently. But not sure he’s ready for this trip at this level. Looks tested.
16. TEEWATERS (4) 02313
T: Archie Alexander / J: Declan Bates (57kg)
Is fit and is ready to run a big race at big odds. He joined in as they turned for home in a Ballarat maiden over 2000m and just romped in before stepping up to the 2000m Gr 3 Norman Robinson and a solid finishing 3rd to Gunstock. Looks a stayer of talent and will be running on.
17. ZOUMON (13) 141Â
T: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott / J: Glen Boss (57kg)
This is the dark horse, the unknown factor. He has raced three times and won twice. Both in the bush, latest when leading all the way in the mud over 2050m at Moe. This appears harder but he likes it wet and is pretty fit. Will no doubt lead them for a good portion of the race.
18. SEBASTIAN THE FOX (1) 831834
T: Shay Keating/ J: Jarrod Fry (57kg)
Is just the type to make himself a pest. Has the rails draw so he sits in about 6th on the fence not using much juice throughout and he is very fit. Beaten 2 lengths by Gundec at Flemington over 1800m then last start plugged on for 4th to Gunstock at Gr 3 level. Rough place show. Food for thought.
19. KING OF PHARAOHS (18) 36124
T: Lindsey Smith / J: Will Gordon  (57kg)
If the track is a bit damp I’m having this bloke in my numbers. He looks a likely type and his maiden win, on a wet track was by 9 lengths easing down over a mile. Looked very good late when flashing home, on a good track, last start to get 4th behind Tutukaka in the 2200m Geelong Classic. Keep safe.
20. SPIRIT OF GAYLORD (11) 5×15
T: Mitchell Freedman / J: Jordy Childs (57kg)
Interesting galloper. Gets back and runs on hard as he did to win his 1500m maiden, then ran a huge race rattling home from last on the bend to grab 5th in the 2040m Gr 2 Vase behind Forgot You. He gave the impression the bigger track would suit him more. Place show.
Tips: 1. ALEGRON,  2. Forgot You, 3. Hitotsu, 4. Spirit Of Gaylord
