Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Tuesday’s Group 1 the $7.7m Melbourne Cup with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Flemington R7 – $7.7million G1 Melbourne Cup (3YO+) 3200m
1. GOLD TRIP (14) 52x3x33529
T; Ciaran Maher & David Eustace / J: Mark Zahra (57kg)
Two years ago he won his first race, a Gr 2 in Paris. Not won a race in 11 starts since but he looks the one to beat in this. Not raced this trip but every time he has stepped up to 2400m he has run boldly, including a great 2nd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Last start was just on 3 lengths away from the champ Anamoe in the Cox plate. Has drawn to be one off the fence in about 7th from the get go and his superior sprinting speed will take him to the front by the clock tower. Will then be extremely hard to run down.
2. DUAIS (10) 96117×0688
T: Ed Cummings / J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg)
Outstanding mare on her day and loves this track. Beaten just over 2 lengths in the Gr 1 Turnbull by Smokin’ Romans then finished same distance back in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Has her foot on the till and she goes very well for Hughie Bowman. Will be running home hard.
3. KNIGHT’S ORDER (24) x3521x1343
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / J:Tim Clark (55.5kg)
Outstanding chance. Loves it wet and is in peek condition. Led all the way to win the Gr 1 Sydney Cup this trip in April. And that was on a heavy track. Led and run down late when 3rd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup last start. Is fast and is very honest – two great ingredients needed to win a Cup.
4. MONTEFILIA (11) 14x718x434
T: David Payne / J: Jason Collett (55.5kg)
What a good, consistent race mare. Is a multiple Gr 1 winner and last start was an eye-catching 4th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Came from near last on the bend and that type of effort is often rewarded in this race. Should be flying home. Respect her.
5. NUMERIAN (7) x60211x225
T: Annabel Neasham / J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg)
Will fly under the radar but is very tough and is in form. Up on speed all the way when a gutsy 5th in the recent 2400m Gr 1 Caulfield Cup behind Durston who isn’t racing in this. Fit enough to be up there all the way and is drawn perfectly. Has claims.
6. WITHOUT A FIGHT (18) 11x20311x2
T: Team Crisford / J: William Buick (55.5kg)
Is one of those typical, tough English stayers who can run all day and through brick walls if needs be. Not served well at the draw but he has raced in great fettle all year in Europe. Two starts back won over 2787m with 57kg in York. Sure to run boldly.
7. CAMORRA (17) 3217x551x8
T: Team Hayes /J: Ben Melham (55kg)
Might find this a bit too fast for him as he is dour. Won at The Curragh over 2816m with 62kg in June then at same track up to Gr 1 level was beaten 20 lengths in the St Leger. Not keen.
8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (9) 4z2x12121x
T: James Ferguson/ J: Kerrin McEvoy (55kg)
Watch market moves. He is lightly raced, only been to the races 7 times and to 7 different tracks. So he is well travelled and seasoned enough. Has won 3 races, latest when easily beating the recent Gr 1 Cox Plate placegetter El Bodegon at level weights. So he appears to have enormous staying talent and is drawn well enough here too. Should be a factor.
9. STOCKMAN (2) 127×964418
T: Joe Pride / J: Sam Clipperton (54kg)
If the rain comes have him in your numbers. Is a dab hand in the mud. Won the St Leger at Randwick over 2600m in the mud comfortably from Arapaho then last Saturday made up nice ground from last to grab 8th over 2000m. It was a neat hit out. This is harder but has drawn very well and is extremely fit.
10. VOW AND DECLARE (4) x8x00x5356
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Blake Shinn (54kg)
Good old stayer who won this race a few years ago and is back in nearly as good a form. Beaten a length by Lunar Flare in the 2500m Bart Cummings over 2510m here carrying 58kg then last start was working home very well when 6th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Runs this trip right out, is fit, loves this track and is a chance.
11. YOUNG WERTHER (21) 32x528x430
T: Danny O’Brien /J: Damian Lane (54kg)
Has been given a great prep for this with a Gr 1 3rd to Smokin’ Romans in the Turnbull over 2000m then last start beaten 3 lengths by Anamoe in the Gr 1 Cox Plate. Is a Gr 1 Derby placegetter so gets the trip and is a threat in this.
12. HOO YA MAL (15) 312×322318
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / J: Craig Williams (53.5kg)
Another lightly raced very talented British star. This one is now with Gai and Adrian. Was 2nd at $151 in the famous Gr 1 English Derby in June and has since won at Goodwood in a Gr 3. Trip is his biggest concern but he clearly has talent and Craig Williams has chosen to ride him.
13. SERPENTINE (23) 786x0x0902
T: Robert Hickmott/ J: John Allen (53.5kg)
Returned to form with a really strong 2nd in a fast run 2500m race on Saturday behind Surefire. This is many lengths harder and he will be taken on in front by Knight’s Order which may well upset his applecart. May find this hard final stages.
14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (13) 111213×070
T: Philip Stokes/ J: Dan Moor (53kg)
Good galloper who can stay. Won the Gr 2 Adelaide Cup over 3200m, then was 3rd in the Gr 1 Sydney Cup this trip behind Knight’s Order. Not racing well this time up but has proven he can run this journey out.
15. GRAND PROMENADE (1) 2516x7x594
T: Ciaran Maher & David Eustace / J: Harry Coffey (53kg)
Good 2nd tier stayer who is fit and was 4th in the Moonee Valley Cup at Gr 2 level last start but these will beat up on him.
16. ARAPAHO (19) 2721712382
T: Bjorn Baker / J: Rachel King (52.5kg)
Carried 4kg more than Durston when 3rd to him in the Newcastle Cup. That horse went on to win the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Anyway, since then this bloke was a game 2nd with 57.5kg in the St Leger to Stockman. Lightweight place hope.
17. EMISSARY (3) 53x35x1581
T: Michael Moroney / J: Patrick Moloney (51.5kg)
Good emerging stayer with finishing power. Got a mile back but charged home to claim the recent Gr 3 Geelong Cup running down subsequent Flemington winner Surefire. Runs on hard and can sneak a place.
18. LUNAR FLARE (12) 1156×46612
T: Graeme Begg / J: Micky Dee (51.5kg)
Good mare on her day and is in form. Finished hard to win the 2500m Bart Cummings at Gr 3 level beating Interpretation home, then ran on strongly when 2nd in the recent 2500m Moonee Valley Cup on a very wet track. Sure to dash late in this too as she is very fit.
19. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (16) 2219×92117
T: Ciaran Maher & Dave Eustace /J: Jamie Kah (51.5kg)
Top stayer with no weight on his back. Has won at 2500m and has won at Gr 1 level when on speed all the way to claim the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m here. Last start moved up to the lead as they swung but plodded late when 7th in the Caulfield Cup beaten 2.3lengths. So query about his ability to run the trip but on class he is weighted to win.
20. TRALEE ROSE (22) x33219x700
T: Symon Wilde / J: Dean Yendall (51.5kg)
Was 9th this race last year and three runs since have been pretty average. Not keen.
21. POINT NEPEAN (20) x7x2111x90
T; Robert Hickmott / J: Wayne Lordan (51kg)
Was a rising star last prep winning here over 2800m at stakes level but his two runs this campaign, when ridden up on speed, have been woeful. Isn’t expected to show up at the finish.
22. HIGH EMOCEAN (8) 9x25x34161
T: Ciaran Maher & David Eustace/ J: Teo Nugent (50kg)
Good game solid stayer who stormed home to win the Bendigo Cup last start. This is harder but she has no weight and is very fit. Sure to run boldly.
23. INTERPRETATION (6) 11144×6536
T: Ciaran Maher & David Eustace / J: Craig Newitt (50kg)
Got through along the rails and looked the winner of the Geelong Cup last start at the 200m but plodded late to wind up 6th. Is fitter now and some smart money was invested on him to win this prior to his Geelong failure so keep safe at big odds. Drops 5.5kg for this.
24. REALM OF FLOWERS (5) 51x006x033
T: Team Freedman / J: Damien Thornton (50kg)
Mare who is a genuine lightweight hope. Loves it wet. Sat three deep all the way in the Gr 1 Metrop over 2400m and was beaten a half length. Can stay all day and she is a big threat in this.
