Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 Caulfield Cup with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
Caulfield R9 – $5m G1  Caulfield Cup  2400m
1. HOMESMAN (13) x31x932x24
T: Team Freedman /J: Jordan Childs (55.5kg)
What a good horse. But this is a big ask. He’s drawn wide so will have to go forward. He may well find the top on his own which will help and is 3rd up. Ran 4th at WFA last week and the 2nd horse home, Noncormist meets him 3.5kg better. And, he’s never won at this journey. Place at best.
2. INCENTIVISE (20) 8111111×11
T: Peter Moody / J: Brett Prebble (55.5kg)
Ok, how good is he? Drawn the extreme outside which is no bother at all because he will ping and will be ridden hard to lead. And he will find the front by the first bend. From there will dictate terms. He may be a freak of nature and just run them along and break their hearts. He doesn’t mind it wet and the last time he was in a race over this trip, he won by 9 lengths. Â Big show.
3. EXPLOSIVE JACK (1) 1132113×95
T: Ciaran Maher and David Eustace / J: John Allen (54kg)
Class galloper in the making. Seems to be getting better every start. Flashed home when close-up 5th in the Gr 1 Turnbull behind Incentivise and meets him a kilo better. Is 3rd up now and is a dab hand at this journey. Has won 2 x Gr 1 races over this trip and both times it was on a soft track. Drawn to get a cushy run on the fence saving ground covered up. Just needs luck in the straight. Respect. Big show.
4. THE CHOSEN ONE (9) 4x2606x342
T: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman / J: Damian Lane (54kg)
This is a tough, good stayer who is in career best form. Rattled home with 59kg to grab 2nd last start in the Gr 2 Herbert Power, always a good lead-up to this. Has a good late dash when ridden quietly and being 4th up he is now duper fit. Good chance.
5. OCEAN BILLY (7) 71x610x505
T: Chris Waller / J: Damian Thornton (53.5kg)
More than handy Gr 1 winning stayer from New Zealand here for the Melbourne Cup. May find these too slick.
6. SELINO (17) x86541x084
T: Chris Waller / J: Fred Kersley  (53.5kg)
Interesting galloper. Is a very strong stayer who won the Gr 1 Sydney Cup earlier this year. Is 4th up here and should be peaking and last start he rattled home for a good 4th in the Gr 2 Bart Cummings over 2500m. Drops 5kg here and if he finds a spot with cover he’s a place show.
7. PERSAN (11) 15x1244x37
T: Ciaran Maher & David Eustace / J: Linda Meech (53kg)
Good strong galloper who gave his all in the Gr 1 Turnbull last start trying to run with Incentivise. Weakened only in the final 200m but before that was looking a place show. Drops in weight here and has won over 2510m so is a lightweight place show.
8. QUICK THINKER (14) 75810×0520
T: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman / J: Declan Bates (53kg)
Good stayer normally but was rather disappointing when there to win at the rise but weakened in the Gr 1 Metrop over 2400m last start. Not likely.
9. CHAPADA (18) x73590x003Â
T: Michael Moroney / J: Dan Stackhouse (52.5kg)
Is interesting. Got back last start in the Gr 1 Turnbull but came with a game run late to grab 3rd and many admirers behind Incentivise. Is better suited this trip, but the gate is the issue. If he goes hard he will get in but will be burnt off by the poppies, and if he goes back he may be trapped three wide all the way. If he gets luck is a definite place hope.
10. DELPHI (19) 1111x6x421
T: Team Freedman/ J: Damien Oliver (52.5kg)
Tough, solid, star in the making. Has only raced 9 times but has won 5 of them, one at Gr 2 level, and another at Gr 3. He can stay all the day and just might be a weighted special here. Won the Herbert Power here this trip in fast time last start with 57kg. Looks up to this and probably goes hard early to find a spot then turns off. I think he’s the real deal.
11. MASTER OF WINE Â (10) 8x663x0003
T: Team Hawkes /J: Dean Holland (52.5kg)
Had been badly out of form until last start when at huge odds came from midfield to grab 3rd in the Gr 3 Bart Cummings over 2500m. Doesn’t mind it damp and if he is back to his best has place claims.
12. MONTEFILIA (12) 3x6345x321
T: David Payne / J: Jye McNeil (52kg)
Sydney mare with talent. Has won a couple of Gr 1 races now and last start’s powerhouse win in the Gr 1 Metrop this trip beating tough stayer Entente in fast time was a great trial for this. Gets in well at the weights and will get back to about midfield. Needs to find cover but has wheels.
13. PORT GUILLAUME (6) 1x1510x060
T: Team Hayes / J: Harry Coffey (52kg)
Is a solid stayer at best and has won a Gr 2 race in France over 2500m but three Aussie races have been woeful. No.
14. SHE’S IDEEL (5) 32324×3719
T: Bjorn Baker / J: Craig Newitt (52kg)
Just got too far back in a fast run Gr 1 Metrop last start and while she did run on she was beaten 3 lengths by Montefilia. Can sit closer and probably will from this gate and could surprise this field.
15. YOUNG WERTHER (8) 3x75232x52
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Daniel Moor (52kg)
More than impressive finishing burst to almost nail Incentivise in the Gr 1 Turnbull. He was 2nd up that day in a fast run race. Looks beautifully weighted and remember he flashed home hard to run 2nd in the Gr 1 ATC Derby this tip too. Peaking perfectly for this.
16. NONCONFORMIST (16) x3502x6412
T: Grahame Begg / J: Craig Williams  (51.5kg)
Interesting galloper. Is emerging as a force. Looks in this race at the weights better than every other runner. Has a powerful finishing burst, is peaking for this, has placed at stakes level this trip and more significantly he finished hard when 2nd to Probabeel in the Gr 1 Caulfield stakes last start. It was run at a cracking pace and he beat the boomed Zaaki home. Huge danger here.
17. DUAIS (3) 821121×361
T: Ed Cummings / J: Michael Dee (51kg)
Strong mare who is very well suited by this gate. Is extremely honest and runs home hard. Is on the quick back-up after brilliantly winning the 2000m Coongy during the week. That’s often a good formula for this, but when you add the fact she won the Gr 1 QTC Oaks over 2200m easily you see she is a major player.
18. CHARMS STAR (4) 622x32x057
T: Chris Waller / J: Dean Yendall (50kg)
Solid staying mare who, speaking of the QTC Oaks, came home hard to run 2nd behind Duais. Is pretty dour and this grade may test.
19. GREAT HOUSE (2) 34×1327515Â
T: Chris Waller / J: – (50kg)
Good stayer who loves this trip and thrives in the wet. Did win the 2300m Newcastle Cup recently beating Quick thinker then came home hard when 5th in the Gr 1 Metrop beaten less than 2 lengths behind Montefilia.
20. CONSTANTINOPLE (15) 0x0558x968
T: Aaron Purcell / J: – (50kg)
