Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s soon to be Group 1 Caulfield Cup with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Caulfield R9 – G1 $5million Caulfield Cup 2400m
1. GOLD TRIP (12) 4x52x3x335
T; Ciaran Maher & Dave Eustace / J: Mark Zahra (57.5kg)
When racing in Europe last year he proved to be a real competitive star who, if he came then, would be considered a major threat here. Since going to the Maher/Eustace camp, he’s had three solid runs culminating in a tough, grinding 5th last start where he made good ground behind his stablemate Smokin’ Romans in the Gr 1 Turnbull Stakes. He does seem to run better on damper tracks and last start was a hard track. So can be in this finish.
2. DUAIS (9) x96117x068
T: Ed Cummings / J: Josh Parr (55.5kg)
What a great war horse. Has won at this level and at this trip and when she fires up she is unbeatable. Her three starts this campaign have been useful without flattering but this is her Grand Final and on best form looks nicely placed. Has great wet track form but poor heavy track form. Is classy enough to win.
3. KNIGHT’S ORDER (18) 0x3521x134
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott /J: Tim Clark (55.5kg)
Could sneak this. He is very fit and loves to roll along at a fast tempo. Did that on a very heavy track to easily claim the Gr 1 Sydney Cup over 3200m. Tried the tactic on a fast track last start when, with top weight he led and was run down late for a close up 4th to Smokin’ Romans in the Gr 1 Turnbull. Will cut across from this wide gate and make it a true staying test.
4. MONTEFILIA (16) 214x718x43
T: David Payne/ J: Jason Collett (55.5kg)
Is ready to show up. Although barrier is a worry. Has won at Gr 1 level a few times, has won at Gr 1 level this trip, has won at Gr 1 level on a heavy track and her 3rd in the Gr 2 Hill Stakes over 2000m last start was full of merit. If she had drawn a gate she’d be a special, but this barrier means she will need luck. Still can win.Very fit now.
5. NUMERIAN (10) 7x60211x22
T: Annabel Neasham / J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg)
This is a really good racehorse. And he is flying at present. Goes well on a heavy track too. Past few starts have been brilliant. They include a Gr 2 win in Qld and then a spell. Resumed with a super effort and 2nd to Knight’s Order over a mile then last start beat Montefilia home in the 2000m Hill Stakes. Meets her 2kg better for beating her. Big show.
6. NONCONFORMIST (15) 64122×8767
T: Grahame Begg / J: Jordan Childs (54.5kg)
Interesting galloper. Rises 4kg on a great 2nd in this race last year. His subsequent runs this time up have been encouraging. All at WFA, latest last week when 7th to the great Anamoe carrying more weight. Loves this track and should be considered.
7. VOW AND DECLARE (17) 0x8x00535
T: Danny O’Brien /J: Blake Shinn (54kg)
Is a Melbourne Cup winner and a Caulfield Cup placegetter. and carries just 1.5kg more here. Hasn’t won since his brave Melb Cup win three years ago and recent form has been in handicap races carrying big imposts. And they have been solid. Will love this weight and no horse will be fitter going into this. Place show.
8. NO COMPROMISE (13) 32510×5361
T: Chris Waller / J: Craig Newitt (53.5kg)
Brilliant mudlark who will just savage the line on this wet track. Did that last start to claim the Gr 1 Metrop at Randwick. Isn’t the best horse in the race but does boast the best wet track form and is very fit. Must be considered.
9. ALEGRON (14) 2x80314x71
T: James Cummings / J: Ethan Brown (53kg)
Very smart stayer on his day and he is in form. Was 2nd up last start in the mud when winning the Gr 3 Kingston Town beating Benaud by half a length. Meets him same weight here and has won up to 2800m. Sure to be very competitive here.
10. BENAUD (20) 62542×6426
T: John O’Shea/ J: Regan Bayliss (53kg)
Winner of just one race and it was 1400m. So on paper that looks a red flag. However, has Gr 1 placings at this trip to his name and is also a Gr 1 placegetter in the mud beating Alegron at level weights. Quick back up here after terrific 6th to the great Anamoe at WFA last week. Should drop out to near last early but is very fit and can fly home.
11. GREAT HOUSE (3) x438240x30
T: Mick Kent & Michael /J: Damian Lane (53kg)
Fascinating horse. has won at Group level to 2500m and was an eye-catching 5th this race last year. Only two starts this time up and both have been useful but he hasn’t fired up in three starts on a heavy track.
12. INSPIRATIONAL GIRL (1) x5x6160x27
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Jye McNeil (53kg)
Good raceme. Is 3rd up here but has never won this trip. Ran a useful 7th beaten 2.5lengths to Smoking Romans in the Gr 1 Turnbull over 2000m last start and meets him 2kg worse for losing to him. Place at best.
13. MAXIMAL (19) 6x00x25x82
T: John O’Shea / J: Ben Melham (53kg)
Solid, legit Gr 1 galloper who last campaign beat Zaaki at Gr 1 level in Brisbane. Since resuming has performed excellently with a great 2nd to Smokin’ Romans in the Gr 1 Turnbull last start. Weighted well, is very fit and looks hard to beat.
14. SOUND (4) 7321763×46
T: Michael Moroney / J: Blaike McDougall (53kg)
Old horse with a great record. Placed in the recent 3200m Auckland Cup but these may be too fast for him nowadays.
15. CHAPADA (11) 0x0036x840
T: Michael Moroney / J: Dan Stackhouse (52.5kg)
Stablemate of Sound and just doesn’t seem to be racing well enough these days at this level.
16. CRYSTAL PEGASUS (2) 211119×900
T: Chis Waller / J: Damien Thornton (52kg)
Was a rising star last campaign but recent form of three runs have been poor. Not keen.
17. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (5) 12219×9211
T: Ciaran Maher & Dave Eustace / J: Jamie Kah (51.5kg)
His rise has been outstanding culminating in a Gr 1 win last start over 2000m in the Turnbull. Meets all of them better off here too. Only real query is the trip. Has won at 2500m but up to the elite level now. Likes to run on the speed and will probably sit behind Knight’s Order before making his move. Is very fit, is the form horse and weighted to win this. Big danger.
18. TRALEE ROSE (8) 4x33219x70
T: Symon Wilde / J: Dean Yendall (51.5kg)
Tremendous mare at this level and trip when right, but hasn’t beaten a runner home in both her starts this time up. Not keen.
19. DURSTON (6) x4x1x70116
T: Chris Waller J: -Michael Dee (51.5kg)
May not get a run but of he does he is a definite light weight hope. Can stay and likes it wet too.
20. MAKRAM (7) 21x01x9142
T: Team Hayes / J: – (50kg)
Probably doesn’t get a start either which is a shame because his form in handicap races says he would have been in this for a while with this weight.
