Can another underdog be a Melbourne Cup top dog?
By Ric Chapman
In this era of internationals coming to our shores for our big races, especially our most famous one, the Gr 1 Melbourne Cup, will we see $101 chances ever winning again?
No, is probably the simple, safest answer.
But wait, I hear you shouting me down – ‘didn’t Prince Of Penzance win at $101 recently?’
Yes, yes he did but he shouldn’t have been $101 that day. He was in reality a $34 chance but the price ballooned out when the rank and file punter thought the Europeans that year would dominate.
And, with some justification as the Europeans are normally very hard to beat. This year Vauban and Onesmoothopperator will prove that claim correct again.
But, the market place that day wasn’t quite as educated on the nuance of English form etc, but now understands what type of European is best suited and if a horse in reality does reach $101 it will be because it just can’t win nowadays.
That doesn’t stop us looking back at the longshots from the past, the most recent being the aforementioned Prince Of Penzance in 2015. His win under Michelle Payne changed her life, and her brother Stevie’s as well, and of course spawned a great movie about the achievement as Payne was the first woman to ever win the race while riding a horse.
The start prior to the Cup, Prince Of Penzance was a pretty good thing beaten into 2nd spot in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He could run, he could stay and he was underrated. Perhaps having a girl on top also made his price so large. It’s a little-known fact that 2 years earlier, in a low-key race over 2000m, Michelle rode Prince Of Penzance to a win and was so taken by him that she told the owner, ‘I’ll win the Melbourne Cup on this horse one day’.”
In this year’s Cup, the horse who was 2nd in this year’s Moonee Valley Cup is not running, but the winner Okita Soushi and 3rd home Sharp ‘N’ Smart are.
Prior to Payne’s historic win, the previous $101 Cup winner was Old Rowley, back in 1940.
Just a day before his victory, the US Election was run and won by President Franklin Roosevelt who had helped the US people regain faith in themselves and the system that would govern them. This was necessary because in 1940, Roosevelt won in the midst of the Great Depression. “The only thing we need to fear, is fear itself,” he declared in his inauguration speech.
The most controversial US Election ever will take place this year – on Melbourne Cup day – and as a betting man it does look like President Donny will win. Is that a portent of another boilover at Flemington?
Old Rowley won a much-reported race that year, coming from near last to win by a length while the favourite, Beau Vite, ran 4th. Beau Vite had made national front-page headlines the day prior having survived an assassination attempt on his life when two masked paid killers entered his box and shot him – although they actually didn’t. They entered the box next to his and shot a stablemate thinking it was him. Does that resonate, you know, with Trump surviving an assassination attempt last month? Eery.
In 1936, Wotan won the great race at $101.
Three starts earlier after he won a low-key restricted race in New Zealand, his owners tried to sell him but did not get one offer. So, he came to Australia with some stablemates and ran in the Cox Plate finishing 2nd last. He lined up for the Cup, as the despised complete outsider of the field. On race morning he was a $201 chance, but his owners had a wager on him as you do. They backed him to win 30,000 pounds so his price halved. But, he still was the rank outsider as his rider was booked on the day of the race! He was last early, stayed on the fence and railed up to win in race record time of 3.21.4. Without A Fight won the race last year in 3:18.37 by way of comparison.
The only other time a horse won at $101 was in 1871 when The Pearl saluted.
The race was just 11 years old when The Pearl lined up and the previous longest-priced winner has been a $25 chance. The Pearl was trained by the legendary John Tait who’d won it twice before. He had two runners this day, the fancied Pyrrhus and The Pearl. Tait would put his top set of colours of black cap, yellow jacket on his best hope and the second set, yellow cap black jacket on his second runner. The Pearl carried the second set but according to rider, Jas Cavanagh, the trainer told him race morning that The Pearl was just as good as Pyrrhus.
There was a midrace scrimmage and many horses copped interference – not The Pearl who carried 45.5kg and won by 2 lengths in 3:39.0.
This year, I really can’t see anything longer than $20 getting the prize but have your bets anyway. Just Fine and Knight’s Choice and Mission Of Love will all be very long odds… the latter even $101.
Good luck.