Key indicators for finding the cup winner
By Ric Chapman
For years, everyone looked to the way super trainer, Bart Cummings, prepared his horses, counting the miles in their legs and the races they ran in and comparing that to the WFA scale.
Be 2.5kg or more under the scale, with 7km of racing this prep in your legs and bam, you’re a big hope.
But, while Cummings became the Cups King with his theories, that all changed when we started accepting international runners. Many came here, first-up and that completely destroyed his winning ways.
So, what’s the modern-day Cup winner preparation look like?
Well, these stats will help you.
AGE
The best strike rate belongs to the 4 and 5-year-old division. Occasionally this changes, Without A Fight last year was a 7-year-old when he won easily. But, by and large look at the ones in their prime as the history of stats in the race suggests they will always give you a good run for your money.
RACING
Probably not a good idea to back a horse who has raced 28 times or more. For some reason if they are ‘on the way up’ in terms of racetrack experience, that stands them in better stead. On the other end of the scale, no-one feels comfortable backing a horse with 7 runs or less on his/her CV.
GENDER
More males have won than females – that’s a fact but one that could be challenged as there are considerably more males contesting the race than females. Some of the very best winners have been girls like Makybe Diva, Let’s Elope and Verry Elleegant. I personally don’t let gender play a role at all.
LEAD-UP RACES
This to me is always the best guide. The Gr 1 Caulfield Cup is by far the best guide. Last year’s winner, for example, came through the Caulfield Cup. The Turnbull Stakes and Cox Plate are good guides too as is the Geelong Cup oddly enough. This year’s Caulfield Cup winner is NOT in the Melbourne Cup. But, the runner-up that day, Buckaroo is. The Cox Plate winner Via Sistina will win the Cup if she runs in it. The Geelong Cup winner Onesmoothoperator is a lightweight chance in the Cup, while the Turnbull was won by Via Sistina from Buckaroo. The only other runner in that race who is in the Cup was Circle Of Fire who also ran in the Caulfield Cup.
BARRIERS
Long run to the first bend, then plenty of time to get in as the field stretches out so gates are not a massive player. I still feel happier drawing inside 15 but the history of the race says you can win from any gate.
WEIGHT
Unless the top 3 weighted horses are considerably better, like Phar Lap, Peter Pan, Makybe Diva etc., the lighter-weighted horses have the advantage and historical superiority. So, the big question in my mind: is Buckaroo considered one who is considerably better? I think so.
INTERNATIONALS
They either run brilliantly or run poorly. We tend to get above-average horses from overseas here and the Irish run best but you really need to have had a run within 8 weeks of the Cup and it should have been over 2400m or longer.
So, if we add all that into the melting pot, what have we got that bubbles to the surface?
Hmm, Buckaroo does. He did his early racing in Europe, but since coming here has proven he is a star at WFA and in handicap races. He was 2nd in the Turnbull at WFA, was a good thing beaten when 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and he will carry 4.5kg under WFA. he is a 6-year-old in the book, BUT, being born overseas means he is actually a 5-year-old and he has raced just 22 times! Added bonus, he likes it wet too.
Land Legend won the Gr 1 Metrop over 2400m before running 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and will carry 6kg under WFA. Here’s actually a 4-year-old whose raced just 13 times.
Onesmoothoperator is a European and on his Aussie debut he won the Geelong Cup with ease. He will carry 6kg under WFA and looks exciting. Against him is the fact he’s actually a 6-year-old who has raced 37 times.
Okita Soushi is a European who has been here for a year now and he ran a solid 2400m when on speed in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup to win. He also carries 6kg under WFA. He’s actually a 6-year-old but has only raced 18 times.
Zardozi is a female and she can stay all day. After a very close 2nd in the Gr 1 Metrop over 2400m she was a solid 4th in the Caulfield Cup. She is honest, is a 4-year-old and raced just 18 times. She also LOVES it wet.
Good luck everyone!