The 2024-25 Premier League season kicks on into Matchday 6, and we’re here with five top-shelf EPL tips for the weekend ahead.
Newcastle v Manchester City
The numbers make this one look tough for Newcastle, but they are exciting reading for Manchester City and Erling Haaland.
While Newcastle has only conceded six goals, it’s not long before the floodgates open up without significant improvement.
Newcastle has given up the second-most shots in the Premier League so far this season. They’ve been relatively lucky so far for a -2.81 goals vs XG figure, too. Their 1.74 non-penalty expected goals conceded per 90 minutes is the 5th-worst in the EPL while only three teams have allowed more shots on target than their six per game.
Manchester City, meanwhile, don’t miss chances. They’ve scored a league-leading 14 goals this season and Haaland is $1.12 to finish as the top scorer in the Premier League this season.
“Haaland’s 100th goal for the club is his 10th already this season, breaking the record for fewest games needed in a season to score 10 goals (5 games).” – Matchday 4 Review
This team simply doesn’t miss many opportunities and will see plenty in this one. Haaland is the favourite to net one at $1.52, with Phill Foden ($2.35) and Kevin De Bruyne ($2.80) also solid options. It could get ugly for Newcastle if they can’t put some pressure on with an early goal.
Bet Now MANCHESTER CITY -1.5 @ $2.32Nottingham Forest v Fulham
Nottingham Forest and Fulham have defended well to start the EPL season. Forest have conceded only four goals while Fulham have let five through to the keeper. Recent form suggests we’re in for a low-scoring affair. However, the two tend to pile up goals in their fixtures.
Forest took the chocolates with a 3-1 earlier this year, but not before Fulham scored five in the match prior. Scoring is a regular occurrence between these two.
Unbeaten so far this season, Forest are exceeding expectations. They’re a quality side and always up for the fight. Chris Wood is one of the better strikers in the league when it comes to expected goals and has found the back of the net three times in five games. Fulham, meanwhile, aren’t afraid to get a shot off with 80 in five games (6th) with 28 on target (5th). Emile Smith Rowe, in particular, is starting to find his feet as a key feature of the Fulham attack.
The form guides suggest two solid defensive teams, but the numbers suggest that goals are coming.
Bet Now Total Goals - Over 2.5 @ $1.90Arsenal v Leicester City
We’ve got arguably the worst team in the EPL up against one of the best defensive teams in world football here.
Leicester City don’t look good. Widely tipped for relegation, they’ve picked up a few handy results to be out of the relegation zone at 15th.
But the numbers suggest they might not have performed quite as well as those results suggest. Their 0-0 draw with Walsall mid-week, where they lost the XG battle, better reflects where this Leicester team is at.
They’ve scored six goals in the Premier League this season but generated just 3.99 expected goals – the second-worst mark in the EPL. Only Ipswich has attempted fewer shots and seen fewer hit the target.
It’s hard to see them scoring even one against this Arsenal defence.
📊Volume of Shots conceded vs quality of shots for teams in EPL 2024/25, updated after GW 5.
🚨 Arsenal conceded 18 Shots per game (Two games in RED card), but still the quality of shots are the LOWEST ~ 0.072. ELITE DEFENCE.
🚨BRIGHTON 👀#PremierLeague pic.twitter.com/t1TJjmRa2W
— EPL – Analytics (@DataAnalyticEPL) September 25, 2024
Arsenal has conceded just three goals so far this season. Two came last week against Manchester City, one of which was scored while defending with only ten men. While Arsenal give up a lot of shots (90 this season – second most in the EPL), their 0.07 expected goals per shot is the lowest in the league.
Leicester work hard. It’s what their transfer approach seems to have played for over the summer. However, you need more than hard work to break down this Arsenal defence.
Bet Now ARSENAL WIN TO NILL @ $1.72Brentford v West Ham
Brentford became the first team in EPL history to score in the opening minute in back-to-back games before going on to lose when going down to Tottenham 3-1 last week.
It’s a wild record and one they don’t want, but it sets them up well to play West Ham this week.
Brentford has performed well at home, winning both games at Gtech Community Stadium so far this season. They’ve had the wood over West Ham in recent meetings, too. Meanwhile, the Hammers come into this one in awful form, having lost 3-0 to rivals Chelsea and being disappointing overall across the first five games. That’s without considering the 5-1 hammering they received from Liverpool mid-week.
While little separates them on the Premier League ladder, the eye test tells us Brentford is the better of the two right now.
West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui, understandably – given the summer transfers – hasn’t settled on his best side yet. A slow start to the season isn’t unexpected. But that lack of cohesion shows in defence, and it’s an area Brentford can exploit. The Bees have been one of the best teams in the EPL at taking their chances to have scored seven goals in five games, converting 13.73% of their shots into goals (4th). They’ll only need a handful of chances to take the points in this one.
Bet Now BRENTFORD TO WIN @ $2.15Manchester United v Tottenham
Who knows which version of these two teams will turn up for Matchday 6.
Manchester United have played out periods where it finally looks like they’re on the up before playing out a dire 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Tottenham’s best is among the top teams in the Premier League but their worst will have Ange Postecoglou and the Spurs faithful pulling their hair out.
Christian Eriksen offered a concerning quote following Manchester United’s UEFA Europa League opening 1-1 draw with FC Twente:
“They looked like they wanted it more than us and that cannot be right.”
There will be days when the opposition wants it more. Even the best teams have off days when they aren’t fully switched on. However, United should have the quality to beat FC Twente on an off day. A team well-managed and assembled certainly would…
Tottenham get three consecutive wins for the 𝐅𝐈𝐑𝐒𝐓 time in 2024. ⚪️✅ pic.twitter.com/zerZPaBK48
— Spurs Global (@spurssglobal) September 26, 2024
With the form Tottenham seem to have found in their 3-1 win over Brentford and 3-0 win over Qarabag FK during the week, they’re the more trustworthy of the two teams. At the very least, they’re on the same page and playing for the manager. Expect them to capitalise on a United side that isn’t working well as a unit under Erik ten Hag.
Bet Now TOTTENHAM TO WIN @ $2.75