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  • by David Schout

Newcastle are Flying

Matchweek 32 of the 2022-23 EPL season saw Newcastle all but seal a Champions League spot, while a jumpy Arsenal gave up yet more ground at the top.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Newcastle bury Spurs after chaotic start

Newcastle went in as $1.93 favourites at home against Spurs in a clash that was billed as crucial in the Top 4 race. But inside 10 minutes, the game was over.

The Magpies raced to a 3-0 lead in this time, helped by a helter skelter brace by Jacob Murphy, as St James’ Park were sent into raptures. But Eddie Howe’s side weren’t done there. Back-to-back goals from Alexander Isak in the 19th and 21st minute saw them balloon their lead to 5-0 in a scarcely believable start to a game between two sides separated by just three points on the EPL table. Relatively speaking, things calmed down from there; Spurs pegging one back in the second half through Harry Kane before Callum Wilson restored the five-goal buffer.

Underlining just how big the win was, Newcastle were $18 pre-game giving up a -3.0 head start. The total goals market was also $21 for Over 6.5. And just for good measure, the correct score of 6-1 was $201. More importantly, the win all but assures — save for a big Newcastle slip up in the latter stages of the EPL season — a return to Champions League football next season. Howe’s men are now $1.10 to seal a Top 4 spot and reach the group stages for the first time since 2002-03.

Gunners losing hope

A five-point lead atop the EPL table in late April should have you buzzing. But for Arsenal, their glass is all of a sudden looking half-empty. For a third successive game, the Gunners dropped points and have now dropped six points in this period. And this was perhaps the worst of the three. The first, drawing with Liverpool at Anfield, was an understandable blip. The second, drawing with West Ham after going up 2-0 inside 10 minutes, was a poor performance but somewhat excused by the Hammers’ buoyant home crowd. Here, a draw ($7.20 pre-game) against bottom-placed Southampton at home was nothing but inexcusable. Arsenal were lucky to even grab a point out of it; two goals in the 88th and 90th minute preventing what would have been a famous $14 Saints’ upset.

The pressure of the EPL title run is clearly adding up. The Gunners’ lead is tempered by the fact Manchester City (now $1.20 title favourites) have two games in hand as Arsenal ($3.70) prepare to face Pep Guardiola’s dominant side — who sealed an FA Cup Final berth on the weekend — on Thursday morning (5am AEST). Mikel Arteta’s men start that clash as $5.50 outsiders.

Leicester, Everton neck-and-neck

Poor old Leicester City, hey? The Foxes ($2.42) grabbed a much-needed 2-1 win over Wolves on the weekend to finally lift themselves out of the bottom three. But despite the crucial three points, they’ve actually shortened (from $1.91 into $1.83) in Palmerbet’s EPL relegation market. The Toffees themselves grabbed a point away to Crystal Palace, a result they likely would’ve taken if offered pre-match after starting as $4.28 outsiders. On the back of that, they too have shortened from $1.91 into $1.83 for relegation. It means that, at least in the markets, there’s nothing splitting Leicester and Everton. Which makes their clash early next week (the early markets have Leicester favourite at home) one of the biggest late-season relegation matches we’ll see.

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