Find the back of the net with tips for all 10 matches of EPL Week 38, the last round of the season, with the title race, all-important fourth spot and the relegation battle still very much alive.
History: Played 60: Man United 39 V Crystal Palace 9 (12 Draws)
Last meeting: December 5, 2021 (EPL): Man United 1 d Crystal Palace 0 at Old Trafford
Final Thoughts: It’s been a tough season for Manchester United, but they can salvage a faint silver lining with a final-round victory that would guarantee a Europa League berth next season. Sixth-placed United’s top-four hopes spiralled with four losses from their last seven games – culminating in a horrific 4-0 defeat at Brighton in their last outing.
Crystal Palace are 13th and on a short turnaround from a wild clash with Everton, who were in relegation danger. Palace led 2-0 at halftime but crashed to a 3-2 loss that secured the Toffees’ EPL future and ended a four-match unbeaten run for the Eagles.
Crystal Palace have managed two wins and two draws in their last seven clashes with Man United. But the Red Devils grabbed a 1-0 home win earlier this season via Fred’s 77th-minute strike.
United are modest $2.25 favourites here – perhaps unsurprisingly given they have lost five straight on the road.
Same Game Multi: Total – Over 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Cristiano Ronaldo; Anytime Goalscorer – Wilfried Zaha @ $7.53
History: Played 218: Arsenal 108 V Everton 64 (46 Draws)
Last meeting: December 6, 2021 (EPL): Everton 2 d Arsenal 1 at Goodison Park
Final Thoughts: This shaped as a massive showdown for both clubs – until Everton sealed their place in next season’s Premiership with a stunning comeback on Friday (AEST). The Toffees seemed certain to take a mere one-point buffer into the last day of the season at 2-0 down against Crystal Palace, before Michael Keane, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored in the second half for a stunning 3-2 win.
Arsenal have surrendered fourth spot courtesy of consecutive bad losses to Tottenham (3-0) and Newcastle (2-0). They are two points behind Spurs – who take on last-placed Norwich – but will be determined to at least make their North London rivals earn fourth by winning here.
Everton have won their last three against Arsenal, including a 2-1 home victory in Week 15. The Gunners led at halftime but a 92nd-minute Demarai Gray goal secured the upset for the Toffees.
Everton could be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas after their emotional victory less than 72 hours earlier. Expect Arsenal to come out firing and get the result – even if it is in vain.
Best Bet: Handicap – Arsenal -1 @ $2.00
Same Game Multi: Result – Arsenal; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Bukayo Saka; Anytime Goalscorer – Alexandre Lacazette @ $6.09
History: Played 38: Chelsea 22 V Watford 10 (6 Draws)
Last meeting: December 1, 2021 (EPL): Chelsea 2 d Watford 1 at Vicarage Road
Final Thoughts: Chelsea have limped to the end of an otherwise solid season with just three wins from their last nine games, but they belatedly confirmed a third-place finish with a 1-all draw at home to Leicester City on Friday. Marcos Alonso scored a 34th-minute equaliser after Chelsea conceded early.
Second-last Watford’s relegation goose was cooked weeks ago and they have managed just one point – from a scoreless draw at home to Everton – from their last eight games. The Hornets were pumped 5-1 by Leicester last weekend despite opening the scoring through Joao Pedro in the sixth minute.
Chelsea have won their last five against Watford but made hard work of a 2-1 victory at Vicarage Road in Week 15, with Hakim Ziyech finding the 72nd-minute winner.
Count on the Blues to win comfortably here, putting on an exhibition for the Stamford Bridge faithful against a Watford team with a -42 goal differential.
Best Bet: Handicap – Chelsea -2 @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Total – Over 4.5; First Goalscorer – Mason Mount @ $14.28
History: Played 111: Newcastle 46 V Burnley 44 (21 Draws)
Last meeting: December 4, 2021 (EPL): Newcastle 1 d Burnley 0 at St James’ Park
Final Thoughts: Burnley are 17th but only ahead of Leeds, who face Brentford, on for-and-against. The Clarets will be hellbent on controlling their own destiny. They have won four and drawn two of their last nine games, but couldn’t quite capitalise on an opportunity at Villa Park on Friday (AEST) – drawing 1-all after Ashley Barnes scored the only goal of the first half.
One-time relegation candidates Newcastle are 12th after winning 11 of their last 17 games, including a huge 2-0 upset of desperate Arsenal last weekend. The Magpies have lost only one game to a team outside the top four since mid-December.
Newcastle boast five wins and a draw from the clubs’ last seven Premier League matches, including a 1-0 victory at St James’ Park in Week 15. Callum Wilson’s first-half goal was enough for the Magpies.
Burnley, $2.20 favourites, boast three wins from their last four games at Turf Moor and everything to play for. But Newcastle have developed into a quality outfit in the second half of the campaign and are eyeing off a top-half finish. Depending how things pan out simultaneously at Brentford, the Clarets may be better served to play it conservatively for a draw.
Best Bet: Result – Draw @ $3.40
History: Played 95: Southampton 34 V Leicester 31 (30 Draws)
Last meeting: December 1, 2021 (EPL): 2-all draw at St Mary’s Stadium
Final Thoughts: A match of little consequence, though Leicester will be aiming to leapfrog Wolves into eighth spot and complete a bright finish to a disappointing season. The Foxes followed up big wins over battlers Norwich (3-0) and Watford (5-1) with a 1-all draw at Chelsea on Friday (AEST).
Southampton, 15th on the ladder after briefly occupying a spot in the top half in March, have won just one of their last 11 games. The Saints come into the final round on a three-game losing streak, though they made life difficult in a 2-1 loss to title-chasing Liverpool last weekend.
Leicester twice came from behind to secure a 2-all draw at Southampton in Week 15. They should get all three points at home if they produce anything close to their form of the past fortnight.
Best Bet: Result – Leicester @ $1.80
Same Game Multi: Result – Leicester; Total – Over 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Jamie Vardy; Anytime Goalscorer – James Maddison @ $8.76
History: Played 41: Leeds 14 V Brentford 12 (15 Draws)
Last meeting: December 5, 2021 (EPL): 2-all draw at Elland Road
Final Thoughts: Leeds United hit the road in a last-ditch bid to avoid relegation. They are 18th, tied on 35 points with 17th-placed Burnley but with an irretrievably worse goal differential. If Burnley beat Newcastle, it’s all over; if the Clarets draw, Leeds need a win; if Burnley loses, a draw will be enough for the Whites.
Leeds ended a three-game losing streak (against heavyweights Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea) by nabbing a valuable point against in-form Brighton last weekend, with Pascal Truijk’s 92nd-minute goal earning a nail-biting 1-all draw.
Eleventh-placed Brentford are finishing a superb promotion campaign in outstanding style. Last weekend’s 3-2 win at Everton was the Bees’ seven from their last 10 games and they could grab a place in the top half with a win here.
Leeds scored first and last – including a 90th-minute equaliser to Patrick Bamford – in the teams’ 2-all draw at Elland Road in Week 15.
Brentford are slight favourites at home and have been picking apart weak defences of late, scoring 20 goals in their last 10 games. Leeds have conceded 78 goals this season, one off the worst record in the league, and the intense pressure on them here is set to prove just as formidable an obstacle.
Best Bet: Result – Brentford @ $2.30
Same Game Multi: Result – Brentford; Total – Over 2.5; Both Teams To Score; Anytime Goalscorer – Ivan Toney @ $6.10
History: Played 176: Man City 78 V Aston Villa 57 (41 Draws)
Last meeting: December 1, 2021 (EPL): Man City 2 d Aston Villa 1 at Villa Park
Final Thoughts: Manchester City head into the final day of the season with a one-point lead over Liverpool, who have a reasonably straightforward assignment at home against out-of-sorts Wolves. City will likely need a win to clinch the title. But it could have been an even sketchier situation for the defending champs, who trailed West Ham 2-0 at halftime last week before a Jack Grealish goal and a Hammers own goal salvaged a 2-all draw.
Aston Villa are 14th but have lost only one (to Liverpool) of their last six, drawing 1-all with Crystal Palace and Burnley in the past week.
A draw back in 2015 is the best Aston Villa have managed in their last 12 encounters with Man City. But three of the last four have finished just 2-1 in the Citizens’ favour – including at Villa Park in Week 15 this season.
Man City’s title destiny is in their own hands. We’ve seen some wild final-day finishes in the past but I’m backing the champs to seal it in emphatic style.
Best Bet: Handicap – Man City -2 @ $2.25
Same Game Multi: Result – Man City; Total – Over 3.5; Both Teams To Score; Anytime Goalscorer – Kevin de Bruyne; Anytime Goalscorer – Raheem Sterling @ $9.73
History: Played 75: Tottenham 33 V Norwich 24 (18 Draws)
Last meeting: December 5, 2021 (EPL): Tottenham 3 d Norwich 0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Final Thoughts: The equation is simple for Tottenham: win or draw against bottom-placed Norwich and they are guaranteed to finish in the top four for the first time in three years. Spurs are two points ahead of Arsenal with a massive for-and-against advantage after losing just one of their last 10.
Antonio Conte’s charges are coming off a draw against Liverpool and wins over Arsenal (3-0) and Burnley (1-0) in the past fortnight. Meanwhile, marquee duo Harry Kane and Son Heung-min have both scored in three Tottenham’s last four games.
Norwich is aiming to farewell the Premier League on a high – potentially offloading the wooden spoon. After losing five straight and failing to score in their past four, the Canaries managed a 1-all draw at Wolverhampton via Teemu Pukki’s 11th goal of the season.
Spurs banked a 3-0 home win over Norwich in Week 15, scoring twice in the second half. Funny things happen on the last day of the season, but I can’t see Tottenham blowing a gift-wrapped Champions League berth.
Best Bet: Tottenham To Win To Nil @ $2.02
Same Game Multi: Handicap – Tottenham -2; Anytime Goalscorer – Harry Kane; Anytime Goalscorer – Son Heung-min @ $4.15
History: Played 56: Brighton 18 V West Ham 18 (20 Draws)
Last meeting: December 1, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at London Stadium
Final Thoughts: There’s potentially a bit on the line here for West Ham, who can nab sixth spot and a Europa League berth if Man United stumble again. After a poor couple of months that doused their top-four ambitions, the Irons have returned to form with a 4-0 drubbing of Norwich and a Premiership-altering 2-all draw with leaders Man City which they were unlucky not to win. Jarrod Bowen bagged a first-half brace to give Hammers a 2-0 halftime lead.
But Brighton, who are looking to climb back into the top half to finish a promising campaign, had proved a tough nut to crack lately. The Seagulls’ only loss in their last eight games was to Man City, while they dished out thrashings to Wolves (3-0) and Man United (4-0) before last weekend’s draw at Leeds (1-1).
This rivalry is on an incredible streak, with the last six West Ham-Brighton matches finishing in a draw. The teams finished 1-all in London in Week 15 after Neal Maupay’s 89th-minute goal cancelled out Tomas Soucek’s fifth-minute opener for Hammers.
An intriguing clash destined to be one of the more entertaining of the final round – particularly if things aren’t going to plan for United at Selhurst Park. But I’m leaning towards another draw here with Brighton performing so well on both sides of the ball over the past six weeks.
Best Bet: Result – Draw @ $3.40
Same Game Multi: Total – Over 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Neal Maupay; Anytime Goalscorer – Jarrod Bowen @ $11.93
History: Played 109: Liverpool 56 V Wolverhampton 36 (17 Draws)
Last meeting: December 4, 2021 (EPL): Liverpool 1 d Wolverhampton 0 at Molineux Stadium
Final Thoughts: With one eye on how Man City are travelling at home against Aston Villa, Liverpool will look to do their part in the title race by putting away Wolverhampton at Anfield. If City draws or loses, a Liverpool victory will be enough to snatch the Premier League trophy.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 18 games, winning 15 and drawing with Chelsea, Man City and Spurs. They have overcome Villa and Southampton in their past two by 2-1 scorelines after conceding early in both games, with Joel Matip scoring in both.
Wolverhampton are limping dismally towards the end of the season and could drop as low as 11th. They have picked up just two points from their last six games and drew at home with last-placed Norwich last weekend.
Liverpool have won five straight against Wanderers by a combined 11-1. Divock Origi snatched a 1-0 away win for the Reds in Week 15 with a 90th-minute goal.
Given how poor Wolves have been lately, expect Liverpool to do it considerably easier this time.