Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 $3million Australian Cup with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Flemington R7 – $3million Australian Cup 2000m
1. CASCADIAN (11) x341154x52
T; James Cummings / J: Ben Melham (59kg)
So solid, so consistent, so tough and always peaks on these big days. He maps to get a great run in about 6th and being third up he charges home. Last week’s 2nd in the All-Star Mile said back me in this. So I will. Big, big chance.
2. REGAL POWER (10) x4411x46x7
T: John Leek / J: Craig Newitt (59kg)
Probably goes into this a little under done with just one run under his belt when 7th last start. This is tough with depth and although will be running on, may miss a place.
3. MO’UNGA (15) 032852×533
T: Annabel Neasham / J: Daniel Moor (59kg)
Strange tactics adopted last start when leading at a solid clip then hanging on for 3rd in the Gr 1 Ranvet over 2000m. That was last week and should derive a great deal of benefit from that outing. Major threat.
4. NONCONFORMIST (14) 22x87670x1
T: Graeme Begg / J: Jordan Childs (59kg)
Back in form and last start win over a mile in the Gr 2 Blamey suggested he would be a player here. Stormed home from a mile back to win easily in solid time. Genuine Gr 1 horse. Respect him.
5. EMISSARY (19) 5x15812x53
T: Michael Moroney / J: Blake Shinn (59kg)
Good stayer who is back in form and ready. Did run 2nd in the Gr 1 Melbourne Cup last prep. Last start made healthy ground when 3rd in the Australian Cup Prelude to Right You Are. Place shot.
6. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (5) x921177x88
T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace/ J: Beau Mertens (59kg)
Not won since Oct last year when victorious at Gr 1 level here over this trip in the Turnbukll Stakes. Two runs this time up haven’t set the world on fire however and looks held.
7. NUMERIAN (1) 211x2250x4
T: Annabel Neasham /J: Jamie Mott (59kg)
Is 2nd up here after a solid 4th when resuming to Steinem in the Gr 2 Peter Young over 1800m. Loves it wet and last placing was last Oct when 2nd to Cascadian at WFA in the 2000m Hill Stakes. Not all that keen.
8. MAROCCHINO (13) 2x61011x10
T: Lou Luciani /J: Jordan Childs (59kg)
SCRATCHED
9. RIGHT YOU ARE (8) x343511111
T; Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace/ J: Ben Allen (59kg)
Very interesting new staying star on the block. Has won past 5 on the bounce and a couple of them including last start in the Australian Cup Prelude, he has run time. Has been up a long time, and is up in class here but he can run fast time and that makes him a threat.
10.HEZASHOCKA (3) 32120423×0
T: Mick Price & Michael Kent / J: Damien Oliver (59kg)
Under rated galloper who has some impressive efforts on his resume including a Gr 1 placing here in the McKinnon Stakes. Never a threat last start when 12th to Nonconformist when resuming. Can improve on that.
T: Peter Moody / J: Luke Nolen (59kg)
On the quick back up from last Saturday when up there all the way and a solid 6th in the All-Star Mile when beaten 3.7 lengths by winner. Previously had run 2nd to Nonconformist in the Blamey over 1600m. Can bob up into the placings.
12. LUNAR FLARE (16) 56x46612x72
T: Graeme Begg / J: Micky Dee (57kg)
Good solid staying mare who can make a race of it when right. Resumed from spell when 7th beaten 4 lengths to Nonconformist in Gr 2 last start. Gets an extra 400m to deal with here and is fitter. Rough place hope.
13. EL PATRONESS (6) 28x3381x84
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Pat Moloney (57kg)
In and out type who is a Gr 1 winner over 2400m. Two runs this time up have been handy but this grade will test her.
14. STEINEM (12) 96x05232x1
T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace / J: Harry Coffee (57kg)
More than handy mare who can go hard early also. And, is getting better as she matures. Ran two Group placings in WA before spell, one at Gr 1 level, then resumed and showed a great turn of foot to finish hard and win the Gr 2 Peter Young over 1800m. Might be a surprise packet here.
15. BANK MAUR (7) 7x218x2741
T: Richard Lamming / J: Jye McNeil (54.5kg)
Is a quality 3YO who seems to love this trip and is getting better each run. Came from near last in big field when eye-catching v4th in Gr 1 Aust Guineas over a mile then showed his true worth with impressive Gr 2 win at The Valley over 2040m. Probably sits about 5th within striking distance all the way. Good chance.
16. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (2) 91x132x88
T: -Liam Howley / J: Blaike McDougall (54.5kg)
Is lightly raced and has some learning to do but does have staying promise. This may be too soon however.
17. YAPHET (18) x24142x565
T: Cliff Brown /J: – (59kg)
Was Gr 1 placed as a 3YO over 2400m but not run a place in 3 subsequent runs and they have been in weaker races. Not keen..
18. CAMPIONESSA (4) 4122211422
T: Mark Walker /J: Opie Bosson (57kg)
Very smart Kiwi mare who comes here boasting an impressive record. Narrowly beaten by the star Sharp ‘N’ Smart in Gr 1 this trip two runs back again denied by a head in the Gr 1 Bonecrusher by Prowess. Sure to run well.
19. BEAR STORY (17) 332652x1x0
T; Clinton McDonald / J: Dan Stackhouse (59kg)
European galloper who came here with strong Group form but at only Aussie start was thrashed behind Nonconformist. Is fitter but not keen.
Tips:
1. CASCADIAN, 2. Right You Are, 3. Mo’unga, 4. Steinem
