Placing a bet on a favourite – some punters can’t get enough of them, while others steer clear of them. Racing writer Justin Devine looks at some of the more fancied runners for this weekend’s horse racing and decides if he loves them 😍 or if he should leave ❎ them!
Emerging stayer GRAND PROMENADE ran well for second in the Andrew Ramsden last start and looks well placed to get punters off to a flyer in the opener at Flemington this week. USMANOV showed plenty of speed when winning the Bat out of Hell on the Gold Coast and will be even better stepping up to 1000m for the Lightning Handicap at Eagle Farm this week. SPLINTEX wasn’t disgraced in the Doomben 10000 and will get all the favours in the Group 2 Moreton Cup. He can return to the winners’ list 😍.
STAR OF UMA has been a costly horse to follow in recent times and while she looks ready for the 1400m this week, I cannot step into the short price at Morphettville. GROUNDSWELL is looking to bounce back in the Spear Chief Handicap after a disappointing BRC Sprint run last start, but I’m not sure he is going well enough to carry 3kg+ more than his rivals. Over at Belmont, the promising filly ULTIMATE COMMAND looks under the odds in her race against some lightly raced gallopers who have plenty of upside ❎.
Good Luck Punters!
Flemington R1 – 2. Grand Promenade @ $1.60 😍
GRAND PROMENADE followed up a comfortable win over 2400m at Sandown with a strong performance for 2nd in the Listed Andrew Ramsden last start (below). While no match for REALM OF FLOWERS in the Ramsden, GRAND PROMENADE finished comfortably in front of the rest of the field and the red hot Jamie Kah takes the ride. From the good gate and down in grade the 5yo will get all the favours in the run and is the best bet of the day.
"You're in the Cup in November."
Realm Of Flowers books her Melbourne Cup ticket with a dominant win in The Andrew Ramsden. pic.twitter.com/fJMmLSb94X
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) May 15, 2021
BET ON FLEMINGTON RACE 1 HERE:
Eagle Farm R4 – 1. Usmanov @ $2.30 😍
USMANOV was an impressive winner of the “Bat out of Hell” over the 900m at the Gold Coast last start and will be even better over the 1000m at Eagle Farm this weekend. He is a two-time winner at the track and distance and only gets 1kg extra weight despite his last start win. Expect Baylee Nothdurft to slot into a perfect position before powering to the line. Yes, please.
BET ON LIGHTNING HANDICAP HERE:
Eagle Farm R5 – 1. Splintex @ $2.80 😍
SPLINTEX followed up an impressive win in the Group 3 Hall Mark Stakes (below) with a solid showing in the Doomben 10000 when beaten less than 2 lengths. From gate 1 this week he will get the gun run behind the leader before being produced in the straight. He will zoom past them. It will be a replay of the Hall Mark. He ticks all the boxes.
https://twitter.com/WorldRacing1/status/1385823939960651777
Morphettville R5- 2. Star of Uma @ $1.90 ❎
Is it a case of third time lucky for STAR OF UMA? The McEvoy trained filly has finished second at her last two starts when well backed and is likely to go around as a short-priced favourite again this week. She has found the line strongly at both her runs this prep and gives the impression that the step up to 1400m will suit. BUT, she is a filly who will need to carry 57.5kgs against the boys who have fared better at the weight. Can she win? Yes. Will she win? Probably not! Pass.
BET ON MORPHETTVILLE RACE 5 HERE:
Eagle Farm R6 – 1. Groundswell @ $3.30 ❎
GROUNDSWELL ran a shocker in the BRC Sprint last start when he was beaten by 10+ lengths. Back in grade to Listed company this week, the Anthony Freedman trained 4yo has Nash Rawiller on board for the first time and is expected to be hard to beat. He has won at his only previous 1500m start and is the quality runner in the race. Can he carry 3kgs+ more than his rivals to victory? Not on what he showed last start. I will be betting around him!
BET ON SPEAR CHIEF HANDICAP HERE:
Belmont R3 – 1. Ultimate Command @ $2.10 ❎
ULTIMATE COMMAND won well on debut back in December and hasn’t salted in her five runs since then. Her two runner up finishes this prep have been full of merit and she brings the best-exposed form into the race. Over the 1100m last start, she was run down in the shadows of the post and dropping back to the 1000m scamper this week will help, as will the good gate. I worry about the weight and the swoopers in the run! It takes a good 2yo filly to give up weight to the boys and win. The short-priced quote doesn’t represent any value. No thanks.