Headlined by Stipe Miocic challenging Jon Jones for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, the UFC 309 card showcases five great fights that include the likes of Charles Oliveria, Michael Chandler and Bo Nickal.
UFC 309 Tips
Jon Jones (c) vs Stipe Miocic
Jones – 27-1 (1) (10 wins by KO/TKO)
Miocic – 20-4 (15 wins by KO/TKO)
Jones def Gane – Submission (guillotine choke) – UFC 285, March 2023
Miocic def by Ngannou – KO (punch) – UFC 260, March 2021
In what is arguably the biggest main-event fight in some time, Jon Jones makes his return to the Octagon as he attempts to retain the UFC Heavyweight Championship against Stipe Miocic, who is the only heavyweight champion to successfully defend the title three times.
The event is 12 months in the making. The two fighters were meant to go head-to-head last November before Jones sustained a torn pectoral muscle, and the bout was postponed. While Jones hasn’t competed since March 2023, Miocic returns to the UFC for the first time since losing the title at UFC 260 in March 2021 – four years and nine months ago.
Jon Jones ($1.15) is the clear favourite heading into the match between the all-time greats. He has only lost once in his long professional career, and that was by disqualification.
Although it is a near certainty that he will have his hand raised to close the night, seven of his last ten fights have gone the distance due to his relative lack of knockout power. Miocic ($5.50) may enter as the underdog but shouldn’t be counted out and could easily emerge victorious but will have to do it by KO/TKO.
“I think Jon Jones is going to win. I could never pick against Jon Jones, I don’t think. I’ve watched all his fights since, like before his DQ loss to Matt Hamill … I’ve been watching him for years. I never thought he was going to lose,” fellow UFC Fighter Paddy Pimblet told GIVEMESPORT.
Best Now MATCH RESULT - JON JONES @ $1.15Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
Oliveira – 34-10 (1) (10 wins by KO/TKO)
Chandler – 23-8 (11 wins by KO/TKO)
Oliveira def by Tsarukyan – Decision (split) – UFC 300, April 2024
Chandler def by Poirer – Submission (rear-naked choke) – UFC 281, November 2022
After reports emerged that the match between Charles Oliveria and Michael Chandler was in jeopardy, MMA reporter Ariel Helwani has confirmed that the bout will go ahead at UFC 309. It will be Chandler’s first return for the first time since his loss to Dustin Poirer in November 2022 at UFC 281.
Set to face Connor McGregor at UFC 303 before the fight was cancelled, Chandler agreed to face Oliveria after defeating him by TKO to claim the vacant lightweight championship at UFC 262 nearly four years ago.
Michael Chandler ($3.05) enters the fight as the underdog but shouldn’t be underestimated as he still has plenty to prove in the Octagon and has previously beaten Oliveira ($1.38). While Oliveira isn’t a totally effective wrestler, he is still effective when it comes to submissions and takedowns, with only ten of his 31 victories coming via KO/TKO.
On the other hand, Chandler lands nearly five strikes per minute, connective with just under 50 per cent of all of the punches thrown and has won nearly half of his bouts by KO/TKO. While it may take him some time to get warmed up in the opening round, a decision should be made in the following rounds.
Best Now MATCH RESULT - MICHAEL CHANDLER @ $3.05Viviane Araujo vs Karine Silva
Araujo – 12-6 (3 wins by KO/TKO)
Silva – 18-4 (9 wins by KO/TKO)
Araujo def by Silva – Decision (unanimous) – UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Imavov, February 2024
Silva def Lipski – Decision (unanimous) – UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs Perez, April 2024
The two female fighters are both chasing a title shot and will enter the fight with roughly the same records as of late. After starting her UFC career in 2019, Viviane Araujo is 3-1 in her last four meetings, with the loss being her most recent bout, while Karine Silva has yet to lose in the UFC promotion with a 4-0 record.
Winning three of these four fights via submission, Silva ($1.35) also has nine wins by KO/TKO to her name and isn’t afraid to get out of the gates quickly. However, this will be the toughest test of her career, with a win cementing her status as a title challenger.
Regarded as the next big thing in the women’s flyweight division, the 30-year-old is an extremely tough fighter, and it’s hard to see her dropping the fight to her opponent Araujo ($3.20).
“Obviously my focus is on Saturday, but I’ve looked at (the title picture) and the biggest difficulty, even though we’re not thinking that far ahead, is getting girls to accept fights,” Silva said.
“That’s one of the difficulties we have: Who’s going to take the fight against me?
“She’s a tough fighter, obviously – No. 9 in the ranking does her justice for everything that she’s done. But it’s my turn now. I think I’ve built a lot throughout camp, and on Saturday it’s my turn to grab that victory.”
Best Now METHOD OF VICTORY - KARINE SILVA BY KO/TKO @ $7.75Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig
Nickal – 6-0 (2 wins by KO/TKO)
Craig – 17-8-1 (4 wins by KO/TKO)
Nickal def Brundage – Submission (rear-naked choke) – UFC 300, April 2024
Craig def by Borralho – KO (punches) – UFC 301, May 2024
A three-time Division I national champion, Bo Nickal will be looking to continue his unbeaten run in the Octagon as he faces veteran Paul Craig, who has competed in nearly 30 MMA fights over the course of his career.
Although Craig ($8.50) is the clear underdog heading into the fight, he shouldn’t be underestimated, having recorded wins against the likes of Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill and Nikita Krylov in the past. However, this weekend he will need to force a mistake from his opponent if he is a chance to win.
A Southpaw fighter, Nickal ($1.07) will look to take his opponent down to the mat. He is known for his wrestling skills but has developed his MMA fighting extremely quickly and isn’t afraid to use strikes via kicks or punches.
Undefeated, it’s hard to see Nickal losing with a win set that is in his favour by either points or submission, depending on how long Craig can last in the match.
Best Now METHOD OF VICTORY - BO NICKAL BY SUBMISSION @ $3.15Mauricio Ruffy vs James Llontop
Ruffy – 10-1 (10 wins by KO/TKO)
Llontop – 14-4 (7 wins by KO/TKO)
Ruffy def Mullarkey – KO (flying knee and punches) – UFC 301, May 2024
Llontop def by Borshchev – Decision (split) – UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Borralho, August 2024
Opening the main card of UFC 309 will see Mauricio Ruffy face off against James Llontop who has yet to register his first win in the promotion having lost of past two matches against better opponents.
Yet to register a win in the UFC, Llontop enters the match as the heavy underdog after securing a UFC contract after impressing in the 2023 Contender Series. With his back against the wall, he is desperate for a win to keep his UFC dream alive after losing his last two previous fights.
However, he will have a tough weekend with his opponent being Mauricio Ruffy who has only lost one match and every single one of his ten victories have come by KO/TKO. Currently on a five-fight knockout streak, all eyes will be on Ruffy as he continues to make a name fo himself and cements his name on the world stage.
“I’m coming with a different mentality, different kind of energy, different kind of preparation for this fight, and he’s going to find out that we have a lot of great warriors in Peru,” Llontop said
“I think there’s some similarities there (to McGregor), but I think this kind of fighter, what you need to do is you can’t let them fight.
“You need to actually pressure him from start to finish, and that’s what I’m going to do.”
Best Now METHOD OF VICTORY - MAURICIO RUFFY BY KO/TKO @ $1.72