Dustin Poirier finished off Conor McGregor inside two rounds when the pair met for the second time in January. ‘The Notorious’ will be primed to return the favour on Sunday (AEST) as he and ‘Diamond’ complete their fight trilogy at UFC 264.
McGregor needed less than two minutes to chalk up a TKO victory over Poirier when the pair first met in 2014. The Irishman was then a rising force on the UFC scene and went on to achieve megastardom in the following years. But early this year he encountered a far more accomplished, well-rounded and resilient Poirier, who carved out a stirring second-round TKO triumph at UFC 257.
A third bout between the lightweight legends was inevitable and has taken less than six months to materialise. Poirier was a $3.42 underdog last time around but has shortened to $1.78 (after the rivals were $1.91 even-money favourites last week) to go back-to-back against McGregor.
The underdog for one of the few times in his UFC career, here’s why McGregor provides Knockout Value to come away with a Round 1-2 KO/TKO result at a juicy $4.
The first simultaneous, two division champ 🇮🇪 @TheNotoriousMMA
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— UFC (@ufc) July 7, 2021
‘Mystic Mac’ shakes off ring rust
Between his fourth-round loss to bitter adversary Khabib Nurmagomedov in October 2018 and Poirier v McGregor 2 in January 2021, ‘The Notorious’ had just 40 seconds in the octagon. That’s all it took for McGregor to stop Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone with a flurry of head kicks and punches at UFC 246 in early-2020.
Prior to the Khabib defeat, he hadn’t fought under the UFC banner in almost two years as he pursued the 2017 Fight of the Century boxing bout with Floyd Mayweather. There was also his retirement in 2019.
In comparison, Poirier had fought 13 rounds across three bouts from April 2019 until UFC 257. That octagon exposure advantage told as he put McGregor on the back foot from the outset, catching him against the fence (giving ‘The Notorious’ a taste of his own medicine) and unleashing a savage barrage of punches to get the Round 2 TKO call.
😳 😱 🤯
What was your reaction to that last meeting between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor?! pic.twitter.com/vUFZ6J9qrx
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) July 1, 2021
McGregor has had just one focus since that loss: a revenge victory over Poirier at UFC 264. This is his shortest gap between fights since 2016 and the $2.05 outsider will be a more formidable proposition for ‘Diamond’ in Las Vegas.
History of adaptability
For all his histrionics and braggadocio, ‘Mystic Mac’ has a track record of learning from his mistakes (inside the octagon, at least).
Back in 2016, UFC Featherweight champ McGregor appeared well in control in the early rounds on welterweight debut against Nate Diaz. A 16th straight win seemed inevitable. But he was caught in a rear-naked chokehold in the second round and tapped out for a shock loss.
Five months later, in his rematch with Diaz at UFC 202, McGregor showed far greater patience and control to graft out a decision victory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlxgOub5dsk
McGregor and his team will have dissected the loss to Poirier ad nauseam and strategized about how to avoid falling into the same traps. He’ll have an answer for the calf kicks and takedowns that Poirier built his UFC 257 upset on.
The motivation to avoid consecutive losses for the first time in his career will also be driving McGregor this weekend.
Notorious for a knockout
If McGregor is to exact revenge on Poirier, it’s likely he’ll need to get the job done early. The 32-year-old has been the distance just twice in his career – against Max Holloway in 2013 (in a three-round bout) and Diaz in 2016.
Meanwhile, 19 of McGregor’s 22 victories have come by knockout. Every one of those KO/TKO wins came inside the first two rounds.
If the relentless Poirier is allowed to drag McGregor into deeper waters, it’s highly likely he’ll claim the rubber. ‘Diamond’ has been the distance nine times for seven wins and his 27-6 record includes several late-round knockout and submission results.
But Poirier does have two Round 1 KO/TKO losses against his name: against McGregor in 2014 and Michael Johnson two years later.
McGregor’s Knockout Value at $4 is certain to tempt plenty of punters ahead of this UFC 264 blockbuster.
BET ON POIRIER V MCGREGOR 3 AT UFC 264:
