The first 5 weeks of the NFL season have allowed us to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Punters have adjusted accordingly, and we’ve seen some big shifts from the pre-season Superbowl market. Let’s take a look at some of the bigger movers so far and establish where the value lies as we head into Week 6.
Patriots: $5 – $6
After a nervy 1-2 start, consecutive home wins have restored bettor’s faith in the Patriots. With Brady and Belichick running the show in a weak AFC East, the Patriots project to be a top 2 seed. A Sunday Night Football win over the Chiefs this week will be sure to reduce this tasty $6 price.
Jaguars: $20 – $12
Even after Blake Bortles’ horror show last week, punters are still liking what the Jaguars bring to the table. With one of the league’s best defences and a strong running game, the Jags can compete with anyone. Matching last season’s AFC Championship appearance definitely isn’t out of the question.
Ravens: $40 – $26
Despite an inconsistent start to the season, punters have deemed the Ravens initial $40 title odds as good value. QB Joe Flacco has had a resurgent season, whilst the defence has been one of the best units in the NFL. When this team is firing on all cylinders, there are few opponents that can compete.
Bengals: $100 – $21
The 4-1 Bengals have had their title odds shift from $100 all the way down to $21. This is a balanced team with some star talent and no real weaknesses. A big win over the division rival Steelers this week will noticeably decrease these odds.
Chiefs: $30 – $8
Led by the stellar play of second-year Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have emerged as a strong contender in the AFC. They’ve started the season an impressive 5-0 and look primed for a first-round playoff bye. Their huge matchup with the Patriots this week could significantly impact these odds going forward.
Eagles: $9 – $21
Last year’s champions have struggled so far in 2018, stumbling to a 2-3 record. Whilst the defence has performed admirably, the offense has gotten off to a sluggish start despite the return of QB Carson Wentz. If they fail to beat the struggling Giants tomorrow, expect these odds to increase even further.
Saints: $16 – $12
Fresh off of 4 straight victories, it’s no surprise to see the Saints Superbowl odds have come into just $12. Drew Brees and the passing offense have looked electric as usual, whilst the defence has stepped up in recent weeks. With one of the league’s best home-field advantages, the Saints represent a huge threat in the NFC.
Falcons: $16 – $101
A shaky 1-4 start has seen the Falcons Superbowl odds eclipse $100. Whilst Matt Ryan and the offense have performed well, the defence just hasn’t performed to their usual standards. With strong NFC South competition, I just don’t see the Falcons getting it done this year.
Packers: $10 – $26
A relatively poor start to the season has seen the Packers odds balloon from $10 all the way to $26. With road games against the Rams and Patriots in 2 of the next 3 weeks, this number probably has some room to climb yet.
Rams: $20 – $3.70
The Rams stellar 5-0 start to the season has established them as the form team of the NFL. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have led the way with excellent offensive performances, whilst a dominant defensive line remains very difficult to score on. Barring any unforeseen injuries, expect the Rams to enjoy home-field throughout the NFC playoffs.
49ers: $20 – $426
The unfortunate Jimmy Garoppolo injury has all but taken the 49ers out of Superbowl contention this season. A home loss to the hapless Cardinals suggests they’ll be pinning their hopes on the 2019 draft. Not even worth a punt at $426 I’m afraid.