After an incredible round of NBA Conference Semi Finals action, we now have two very exciting Conference Finals match-ups. Most importantly, there are also a ton of betting opportunities on teams that have provided value all season. With the action heating up, we’ve identified 1 profitable betting trend for each team NBA remaining.
Raptors as Underdogs
While the Raptors have only won ATS 43% of the time this season, they’ve actually been very solid as underdogs. They’ve gone 10-6 ATS as an underdog, good for 62.5%, all of which have occurred on the road.
What’s even more impressive is that they’ve actually won the majority of these NBA games outright. 9 out of these 16 games have resulted in Raptors wins, where they’ve outperformed the spread by an average of 5.4 points. This is particularly good news for moneyline backers, who could look to cash in this series.
Kawhi Leonard in GM7
1 Game Winner over Joel Embiid!!!!pic.twitter.com/sydbp4wAP7
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) May 13, 2019
I expect the Raptors to be narrow favourites in their home games in this series but punters can definitely expect them to be road underdogs. They’re already listed as 6 point underdogs in game 1, indicative of the perceived level of difference between these teams.
Given their very strong form as a road dog this season, the Raptors have every chance of stealing a game in Milwaukee. With their propensity for winning these games outright, $3.15 for a victory could represent even better value.
Under in Warriors Home Games
When most NBA fans think of the Golden State Warriors, they think of a dynamic offence that can put points up at will. This typically leads to a lot of ‘over’ bets in Warriors games, which can overinflate the number.
Backing the under in Warriors home games has been a staple of the KD era and this year is no exception. The under went 28-19 ATS this season, good for 59% and 3rd best in the NBA.
Chris Paul had Steph Curry kicked off the Toyota Center court the night before the game when he went to get shots up.
Stephs response after the game last night. pic.twitter.com/8xjsebPmtS
— NBA (@TheNBASoul) May 11, 2019
In a relatively small sample size, this trend has gone 3-3 so far in these NBA playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see how this trend develops in the first few games of the series without Kevin Durant.
While it’s possible that we do see a return of the beautiful game, I can see this lack of scoring putting too much pressure on their backcourt. Especially against a very fatigued Portland side, the under is definitely worth a look in the first two games.
Bucks After a Loss
One of the best under the radar NBA betting trends this season is the Milwaukee Bucks after a loss. They’ve gone a dynamite 19-4 ATS after a loss, good for a whopping 82.6%.
No other NBA side is over 66%, indicative of just how profitable this trend has been. The Bucks have been utterly dominant in these games, outperforming the spread by an average of 7.2 points.
Paul Pierce likely wishes he knew this trend when he proclaimed the series was over after the Celtics stole game 1. After their lone playoff loss this season, the Bucks bounced back emphatically to beat Boston by 21 in the very next game.
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) May 9, 2019
As the competition continues to get tougher, this is a trend that is likely to be tested a lot more. Especially if we see an early loss by the Bucks in this series, I expect them to bounce back immediately.
Portland as a Road Underdog
In general, the Blazers have been a darling for NBA punters this season. They’ve been great both at home and as a favourite. However, one area where they’ve struggled immensely is as a road underdog.
They’ve gone just 12-18 in such situations this season, good for a dismal 40%. Fortunately, they’ve been somewhat better in the playoffs, going 3-3 straight up and ATS.
Western Conference Finals bound for the first time in 19 years!
— Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) May 12, 2019
After a hard-fought series win in Denver, they travel to Oakland on minimal rest to face a formidable Warriors side. Currently listed as 8-point underdogs to a Warriors team sans KD, I can’t see Portland being favoured at all in this series.
The only real solace for Blazers backers is that Golden State hasn’t been a great ATS side at home. They’ve gone just 18-27-1 this season, good for 7th worst in the NBA. That said, if Golden State plays anything like they did against Houston in game 6, I expect to see some dominant home wins.