With 72 games played and 215 goals scored throughout the group stages of the World Cup, 32 advanced to the knockout stages.
It’s a World Cup for goals at the moment; the 2.99 goals per game average is the highest since the 1950s. Rather controversially, it’s all been to get us to 32 teams – the same number that has featured in all of the last seven World Cup tournaments.
Argentina, France and Mexico are the only teams to advance with a full nine points in the group stages. Having come through their groups to play the first knockout match, hosts Canada are already through to the quarterfinals after beating South Africa.
With the elite teams starting to announce themselves, it’s time to dig into the markets with an eye on the futures.
3 Takeaways From The Group Stages
South Korea Slump – Before we look ahead to what could be in this World Cup, the disappointments of the tournament so far need addressing. Türkiye deserves to be mentioned, but South Korea’s failure to play in the knockout stages is the most disappointing result.
Having fought back to beat Czechia in an impressive Matchday 1 performance, we never saw anything close to it again. Barely throwing a punch against Mexico before being undone by South Africa, the Taegeuk Warriors finished on only three points and a -1 goal difference.
This wasn’t a golden-generation South Korea. Still, the expectation was for a lot more, and they’re going to be left wondering what could have been had they been the team to face Canada in the Round of 32 – a nation five spots below them on the FIFA rankings before the tournament.
Messi & Argentina – In contrast to South Korea, Argentina flew through the group stages on the back of more Lionel Messi brilliance. The 39-year-old claimed the record for the most World Cup goals with his strike against Austria.
He set up Argentina well enough after two matches to be rested to start the third before coming on and scoring his sixth goal of this World Cup in their win over Jordan.
“We prepared for this. I think the team was hoping for this in a healthy way,” – Nicolas Otamendi
They’re the defending World Cup champions and have started this tournament as well as anybody could have hoped. Even by their high standards, Argentina have exceeded expectations. They won all three games in the group stages and, notably, performed well defensively to finish with a +7 goal difference.
With Messi turning back the clock and those around him excelling, Argentina are into $2.80 to reach the final.
Is It Coming Home? – It certainly didn’t look like it as England played out three consecutive halves of football without looking like breaking down their opponents. Ghana installed a low block that proved impenetrable, and while not quite as low, Panama did their best to replicate it. They did a fine job until Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane scored in the second half for England to win 2-0.
🗣️ Jude Bellingham: "Harry Kane is the best England player of all-time" 👀
[@BBCSport]pic.twitter.com/IRdA8PWNBt
— PurelyFootball ℗ (@PurelyFootball) June 29, 2026
The numbers are worth considering after the group stages, though. While England has looked poor at times, they’re in the top six for shots on target. They’re creating plenty of chances. Their issue at the moment is the big chances missed – no team has missed more.
The defence has held up to have allowed the third-lowest expected goals, but they’ve not been particularly challenged. England might be playing to their opponents. England are $1.27 favourites to win, but Congo DR will prove another tough nut to crack if they don’t find joy early.
Still, England are where they’re meant to be at the moment, and shouldn’t be judged too harshly on matches where the opponents wanted to avoid defeat more than win.
World Cup Market Updates
Argentina and France remain as favourites to make the World Cup Final, with England and Spain not far behind. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, after opening the tournament at $10, Brazil are on the fifth line of betting at $5. Vinicius Junior is commanding the side with everything flowing through him. Carlo Ancelotti hasn’t over-complicated the plan – let the stars do the work.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL SURVIVE.
With just 45 seconds left in extra time, Brazil find the winner and break Japan hearts to advance in the FIFA World Cup 2026.
Knockout football is absolutely ruthless. 💔🔥#Brazil #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup #BrazilVsJapan #ExtraTime pic.twitter.com/0qlIoaIGJN
— Highlight Plugg (@highlightplugg) June 29, 2026
Portugal, however, has been poor by their standards so far in the tournament. They’ve done enough to reach the Round of 32, but are significant outsiders to go deep given their early form. They’re one of the most dominant possession teams in the tournament, averaging over 60% of the ball through three games, but simply haven’t done enough with it. Naturally, the pre-tournament conversations around Cristiano Ronaldo’s influence have continued.
Reach The Final: France – $3, England $4.20, Spain – $4.33, Brazil $5, Portugal – $8.50
Ousmane Dembele needed only 32 minutes to mark the second-fastest hat-trick from kickoff in World Cup history, but he’s still on the third line of betting to win the Golden Boot behind Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe.
Messi opened the tournament with three and has scored in all three matches. At one point not expected to feature in this World Cup at all, he’s the favourite to finish it with the Golden Boot.
Golden Boot: Messi – $1.91, Mbappe – $3.75, Dembele – $11, Kane – $17
World Cup Futures Best Bet
They’re the favourites to get there for a reason, but Argentina to make the final is the play at this point in the tournament.
Turkiye and Uruguay failing to reach the Round of 32 and Portugal’s underwhelming group stage performance have all benefited the defending champions.
They’ll face Cape Verde in what should be a routine win without a lot of stress as $1.17 favourites. All things going well, their best players can watch the late stages of the match from the sideline with a place in the Round of 16 locked in.
“A rating from 1-10? I have no idea what to say. I’ve never given a rating. But we can say that we’re good. Now, another stage of the World Cup starts.” – Lionel Scaloni
The stage is set for a deep run in the tournament. Provided they don’t trip up against Cape Verde as $1.15 favourites, Argentina could play Australia or Egypt in the following match before drawing Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana in the quarterfinals – all opponents they should beat handily.