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Politics – Federal Election Betting Preview

While polling shows the Coalition has edged its way back, Labor remains favoured to claim victory in Saturday’s federal election.

Looking back on the last five-and-a-half weeks of the federal election campaign, Labor leader Anthony Albanese has looked increasingly assured of himself the longer things have gone on. After a rocky start, where he somehow fudged the national unemployment figure, the aspiring PM has gathered steam with a series of more assured performances. But, as we tick into the final days before the May 21 election, that confidence might be tested. Australians woke up on Wednesday to the news that the election race had tightened. The latest Resolve poll indicated primary vote support for Labor had dropped from 34 to 31 per cent. Conversely, the Coalition’s primary vote had risen slightly from 33 to 34 per cent. It was the news Prime Minister Scott Morrison needed.

Palmerbet’s election markets shifted on the back of the poll’s release. Previously $1.35 to claim victory on Saturday, Labor pushed out slightly to $1.45. The Coalition meanwhile have shortened from $3.20 into $2.80. So where do other markets currently stand in the final days of the campaign?

An imminent stalemate?

Speculation has soared throughout the campaign as to whether Australia — like it did in 2010 — is headed towards a hung parliament. The rise of the ‘teal’ independents in traditionally Liberal-held seats this election has only fuelled predictions that neither party will win the requisite 76 seats to claim government, without support from minor parties. So what are the markets saying? Despite some predictions the independents could win up to seven seats (plus confidence from the Greens that they’ll improve on their sole lower house seat), a hung parliament remains a $2.30 proposition with Palmerbet. Either major party winning 76 seats remains favoured at $1.50.

Type of government formed

The favoured outcome this election remains Albanese to return Labor to power for the first time since 2013, with a majority government ($2.30). Next best is a Labor minority (with likely support from the Greens and Independents) currently at $3.20 with Palmerbet. Perhaps most interestingly, a Liberal/National minority is favoured over a majority at this stage of the election. As it sits, a Liberal/National Coalition minority is currently $4.25, while a Liberal/National Coalition majority is at $4.40.

In short, it’s close. And it’s unlikely the ABC election guru Antony Green will be calling things early on Saturday night.



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