The third and deciding match of the 2024 State of Origin series has arrived, with New South Wales heading to Suncorp Stadium to face Queensland, with both teams 80 minutes away from winning the Origin shield.
State of Origin Tips – New South Wales vs Queensland
History: Played 131, Queensland 70, New South Wales 59, draws 2
Last Five Matches
Game 1, 2023 – Queensland 26 def NSW 18 at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Game 2, 2023 – Queensland 32 def NSW 6 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game 3, 2023 – NSW 24 def Queensland 10 at Accor Stadium, Sydney
Game 1, 2024 – Queensland 38 def NSW 10 at Accor Stadium, Sydney
Game 2, 2024 – NSW 38 def Queensland 18 at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Team News
New South Wales: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Bradman Best 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic (c) 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Mitchell Barnett 17. Spencer Leniu
Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Dane Gagai 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Kalyn Ponga
What we Like
First Tryscorer (Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow @ $10.00)
Recalled back into the NSW Blues line-up for the first time since 2021 due to the suspension of Joseph Suaalii, Latrell Mitchell has a point to prove and will be eager to put any critics to bed. Mitchell enters the team as one of the most dominant players in the NRL but has struggled to prove himself on the big stage since moving to the Rabbitohs from the Sydney Roosters. Transitioning back into the centres for Wednesday’s clash, his accolades speak for themselves, but he has regularly been on the bad end of pundits who say he can’t live up to expectations. The two-time premiership winner can easily prove his doubters wrong with a blockbuster performance.
To Score 2 or More Tries (Zac Lomax @ $5.40)
Since making his Origin debut in the opening match of this year’s series, St George Illawarra Dragons winger Zac Lomax has showcased that he is made for the State of Origin arena with his high-flying aerial ability and incredible attacking skills on the edge of the field. After scoring one try in Game 1, he would make up for it in Game 2 and would cross the line for a double. Injuries to Murray Taulagi and Xavier Coates, will let Lomax take more control of the match on the wing as he will be the target of kicks from Jarome Luai and Mitchell Moses. It is guaranteed that he will find the ball in his hands near the try line.
Total Score 37.5 (Over 42.5 @ $1.99)
The opening two matches of the 2024 State of Origin series have seen back-to-back high-scoring matches, and it’s hard to see Game 3 being any different at Suncorp Stadium. The two states will be looking to outdo each other in attack and boast several attacking superstars led by the superstar halves pairing of Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary (NSW) and Tom Dearden and Daly Cherry-Evans (QLD). So far this series, 48 points were scored in Game 1, whilst 56 points were scored in Game 2.
Final Thoughts
After a dominant Game 2 performance, the NSW Blues ($2.00) enter Game 3 of the 2024 State of Origin series filled with confidence. However, the Blues enter the clash as outsiders due to the QLD Maroons ($1.80) playing in their home stadium and in front of their home fans. Michael Maguire’s men won’t arrive into the game with any pressure while the same can’t be said for Queensland, who have made four massive changes ahead of this year’s final Origin match.
A close match is expected between the two states, but expect the Blues to have the upper advantage due to them having more impactful players who can change a game in an instant such as Mitchell Moses, Stephen Crichton and Spencer Leniu, among others. The Maroons can also be seen as an unreliable pick with several players not registering a ton of game-time this season. This includes Kalyn Ponga (who played one game since returning from injury), Reece Walsh (who played two games since returning from injury) and Harry Grant (yet to play a match since Game 2).