The opening match of the 2026 State of Origin series has arrived, with both New South Wales and Queensland looking to gain the advantage heading into the remainder of the series.
State of Origin Tips – New South Wales vs Queensland
History: Played 135, Queensland 72, New South Wales 61, draws 2
Last Five Matches
Game 2, 2024 – Queensland 38 def NSW 10 at Accor Stadium, Sydney
Game 3, 2024 – NSW 14 def Queensland 4 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game 1, 2025 – NSW 18 def Queensland 6 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game 2, 2025 – Queensland 26 def NSW 24 at Optus Stadium, Perth
Game 3, 2025 – Queensland 24 def NSW 12 at Accor Stadium, Sydney
Team News
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Kotoni Staggs 5. Tolutau Koula 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Haumole Olakau’atu 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Cameron Murray 15. Victor Radley 16. Jacob Saifiti 17. Blayke Brailey 18. Ethan Strange 19. Casey McLean 20. Dylan Lucas
Queensland: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Cameron Munster 7. Sam Walker 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Max Plath 14. Briton Nikora 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Trent Loiero 18. Ezra Mam 19. Gehamat Shibasaki 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
What We Like
First Tryscorer (Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow @ $11.00)
The ‘Hammer’ has become one of the most dangerous attacking weapons in rugby league and enters Game One in red-hot form for the Queensland Maroons. Lining up in the centres, Tabuai-Fidow’s blistering speed around the ruck and ability to back up his teammates make him a constant threat in the opening exchanges. One clean break is all that the Dolphins star needs to open the scoring.
Anytime Tryscorer (Brian To’o @ $2.02)
Few players rise to the Origin occasion better than four-time premiership winner Brian To’o. The Blues winger consistently produces massive yardage carries coming out of trouble and has built a reputation for scoring in big games. With Game One expected to feature fast tempo and plenty of attacking opportunities, To’o looks excellent value to cross at any stage.
Total Score 42.5 (Over 37.5 @ $1.90)
Modern Origin football has become increasingly attack-oriented, and both states head into this year’s opener stacked with striking power across the past. The Blues possess elite attacking threats through James Tedesco, Tolu Koula and Kotoni Staggs, while Queensland counters with Kalyn Ponga, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and rookie debutant Jojo Fifita. The change to the six-again rule is likely to increase the pace of the game.
Final Thoughts
Game One of the 2026 State of Origin series shapes as one of the most evenly matched series openers in recent years. Queensland have opted to lean on its experience as they prepare to rely on its veterans steering the side around the field. Meanwhile, the NSW Blues have selected a more explosive line-up with multiple players being able to change the contest in an instant during attack. The Blues will be desperate to start the series strongly and with Nathan Cleary in career-best form, it’s hard to go past them in front of their home fans.