The NRL has always been a difficult competition to tip, but the underdogs caused more havoc than normal for punters this week.

Straight Up Dogs

What a week it was for underdog punters.

Whether it was with the headstart or head-to-head, those on the outsider cashed in throughout Round 11.

Underdogs went 6-2 against the spread and straight up.

The Panthers, Titans, Knights, Cowboys, Broncos and Sharks all took the chocolates in games the odds implied they were expected to lose more than they were to win.

Only the Rabbitohs and Storm managed to win as favourites while also covering the spread. It’s no surprise to see them at the top of the NRL ladder as we head into the representative period.

Reading The Roosters

A handful of footy fans were optimistic of a Knights win over the Roosters on Friday night. However, nobody predicted the 38-12 thrashing that transpired.

The Knights ran right through the Roosters. Once they won the battle in the middle, they took to the edges to find points.

Sure, the Roosters played most of the game with three-quarters of their first-choice spine on the sideline. Their forward pack was close to full-strength, though. And that forward pack struggled. It’s a slight cause for concern when you consider who the Rabbitohs and Storm have to throw out into the middle. Both are far superior to the Knights in that area of the field.

The Roosters will lose games along the way. This is the NRL – no team goes through unbeaten. But a considerable loss like this one has seen the Chooks drift out from $2.90 to $3.30 in the premiership market.

State of Origin

State of Origin has been a talking point for weeks, but Game 1 is almost here.

The teams are in so punters will be casting their eyes over the playing 17’s and the markets.

QueenslandNew South Wales
Kalyn Ponga1James Tedesco
Corey Oates2Josh Addo-Carr
Will Chambers3Latrell Mitchell
Michael Morgan4Josh Morris
Dane Gagai5Nick Cotric
Cameron Munster6Cody Walker
Daly Cherry-Evans7Nathan Cleary
Jai Arrow8David Klemmer
Ben Hunt9Damien Cook
Josh Papali10Paul Vaughan
Felise Kaufusi11Boyd Cordner
Matt Gillett12Tyson Frizell
Josh McGuire13Jake Trbojevic
Moses Mbye14Jack Wighton
Dylan Napa15Payne Haas
Joe Ofahengaue16Cameron Murray
David Fifita17Angus Crichton

 

Despite playing at fortress Suncorp, the Maroons are $2.10 outsiders to win the series-opener.

Injuries have played their part with plenty of questions being raised over their hooking rotation and Moses Mbye’s selection in general.

Meanwhile, the Blues’ halves debate has been settled. Brad Fittler has been somewhat forced into partnering Cody Walker in the halves alongside Nathan Cleary. Looking to establish some loyalty in the Origin side, he’s given Cleary another crack despite his poor form at NRL level.

The Blues are at $1.74 to win Game 1, and if they do, their $1.45 price to win the series and $3.50 to claim it 3-0 will tumble.

NRL Against The Spread

The Roosters, Sea Eagles and Tigers all failed to cover in Round 11 but so are still equal at the top of the ATS standings.

It’s best to wait on the Panthers before getting too excited about their straight up win and cover. Doing it over the Eels isn’t a massive boost to the form guide, and they’ll be without Nathan Cleary against the Sea Eagles on Thursday ($2/+1.5).

TOP 8 ATSRecordBOTTOM 8 ATSRecord
Roosters7-4Broncos5-1-5
Sea Eagles7-4Sharks5-1-5
Tigers7-4Bulldogs5-6
Rabbitohs6-1-4Storm5-6
Raiders6-1-4Eels5-6
Cowboys6-5Titans4-7
Warriors6-5Dragons3-8
Knights6-5Panthers2-2-7

 

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