The NRL has always been a difficult competition to tip, but the underdogs caused more havoc than normal for punters this week.
Straight Up Dogs
What a week it was for underdog punters.
Whether it was with the headstart or head-to-head, those on the outsider cashed in throughout Round 11.
Underdogs went 6-2 against the spread and straight up.
The Panthers, Titans, Knights, Cowboys, Broncos and Sharks all took the chocolates in games the odds implied they were expected to lose more than they were to win.
Only the Rabbitohs and Storm managed to win as favourites while also covering the spread. It’s no surprise to see them at the top of the NRL ladder as we head into the representative period.
Reading The Roosters
A handful of footy fans were optimistic of a Knights win over the Roosters on Friday night. However, nobody predicted the 38-12 thrashing that transpired.
The Knights ran right through the Roosters. Once they won the battle in the middle, they took to the edges to find points.
— NRL (@NRL) May 24, 2019
Sure, the Roosters played most of the game with three-quarters of their first-choice spine on the sideline. Their forward pack was close to full-strength, though. And that forward pack struggled. It’s a slight cause for concern when you consider who the Rabbitohs and Storm have to throw out into the middle. Both are far superior to the Knights in that area of the field.
The Roosters will lose games along the way. This is the NRL – no team goes through unbeaten. But a considerable loss like this one has seen the Chooks drift out from $2.90 to $3.30 in the premiership market.
State of Origin
State of Origin has been a talking point for weeks, but Game 1 is almost here.
The teams are in so punters will be casting their eyes over the playing 17’s and the markets.
|Queensland||New South Wales|
|Kalyn Ponga||1||James Tedesco|
|Corey Oates||2||Josh Addo-Carr|
|Will Chambers||3||Latrell Mitchell|
|Michael Morgan||4||Josh Morris|
|Dane Gagai||5||Nick Cotric|
|Cameron Munster||6||Cody Walker|
|Daly Cherry-Evans||7||Nathan Cleary|
|Jai Arrow||8||David Klemmer|
|Ben Hunt||9||Damien Cook|
|Josh Papali||10||Paul Vaughan|
|Felise Kaufusi||11||Boyd Cordner|
|Matt Gillett||12||Tyson Frizell|
|Josh McGuire||13||Jake Trbojevic|
|Moses Mbye||14||Jack Wighton|
|Dylan Napa||15||Payne Haas|
|Joe Ofahengaue||16||Cameron Murray|
|David Fifita||17||Angus Crichton|
Despite playing at fortress Suncorp, the Maroons are $2.10 outsiders to win the series-opener.
Injuries have played their part with plenty of questions being raised over their hooking rotation and Moses Mbye’s selection in general.
Meanwhile, the Blues’ halves debate has been settled. Brad Fittler has been somewhat forced into partnering Cody Walker in the halves alongside Nathan Cleary. Looking to establish some loyalty in the Origin side, he’s given Cleary another crack despite his poor form at NRL level.
NRL Against The Spread
The Roosters, Sea Eagles and Tigers all failed to cover in Round 11 but so are still equal at the top of the ATS standings.
It’s best to wait on the Panthers before getting too excited about their straight up win and cover. Doing it over the Eels isn’t a massive boost to the form guide, and they’ll be without Nathan Cleary against the Sea Eagles on Thursday ($2/+1.5).
|TOP 8 ATS||Record||BOTTOM 8 ATS||Record|