The Rabbitohs not only announced themselves as premiership contenders this week but also became a punters number one NRL team. Meanwhile, double-digit favourites aren’t cashing in quite as well.
Here’s how Round 10 looked for punters:
The Storm were coming off a 20-point loss, but that didn’t stop them from entering Saturday night’s game against the Titans as -14.5 favourites. No doubt heavily backed given the Gold Coast hadn’t looked like beating anybody recently, punters were left counting the cost of Melbourne’s nine errors and ten penalties. The final 28-14 scoreline saw the Storm fall painstakingly short of covering, which prompted a look at double-digit favourites over the years.
— NRL (@NRL) May 12, 2018
Melbourne played as the 400th double-digit favourite since 2008. Fittingly coming up short by just 0.5 points, it turns out it’s not too dissimilar to the 399 games before it. Teams swallowing double-digits have covered the spread in just 49% of games since 2008.
They may look like attractive punts, but they don’t come in at a profitable (53.4%) rate.
The Wooden Spoon Wrestle
Another round, another pair of L’s for the Titans and Eels.
The two clubs are way out in front in the least wins market, and it doesn’ look like another club will be involved in the race to avoid the wooden spoon.
Despite having one extra win on the Eels, the Titans are the favourites for the spoon at $3.20. Garth Brennan looks out of his depth and injuries have exposed the lack of depth in their playing list. They’ve lost five on the trot and there isn’t an end to the losing streak in sight.
Meanwhile, the Eels continue their fall from grace. Planted at the bottom after 10 rounds, Parramatta are on the second line of betting at $3.70.
Remarkably, the Cowboys sit at 14th on the ladder but are way out at $13 to finish on the bottom. The bookmakers are clearly expecting a resurgence at some point.
NRL Against The Spread Ladder
We have a new number one!
The Rabbitohs are not only climbing the in the premiership winners market ($11), but they are acting as the best punt of all 16 teams through ten rounds.
Now 8-2 against the spread, there isn’t a more profitable team in the NRL. With Sam Burgess back and looking to stay on the field for the rest of the season, Souths might still have a few more covers in them before the inevitable regression back towards the mean.
It’s the Broncos you want to avoid. A famously popular team given their history and location, they’re just 3-7 so far this season. Until their halves play themselves into form, don’t bother getting on Brisbane.
|1||South Sydney Rabbitohs||8||2|
|2||St George Dragons||7||3|
|3||New Zealand Warriors||7||3|
|6||Gold Coast Titans||5||5|
|11||Manly Sea Eagles||4||6|
|15||North QLD Cowboys||3||7|