Despite no NRL games being played from October through March, this competition never really sleeps. Here, we take a look at the price moves over the summer.
The Latrell Mitchell contract saga kept everybody on their toes but his departure from the Sydney Roosters to the South Sydney Rabbitohs hasn’t had much of an impact on the markets. The now also Cooper Cronk-less Chooks have drifted out from their post-GF $4 price to $4.20 while the Rabbitohs remain at $11 to win the 2020 premiership.
Cometh the hour, cometh the superstar!
— NRL (@NRL) October 6, 2019
The two Sydney clubs are flanked by the Melbourne Storm and Canberra Raiders in the premiership market.
Despite fielding what appears to be a weaker squad on paper in 2020, the Storm are on the second line of betting at $6. They opened at $5.50 and could drift further if Josh Addo-Carr finds a home in Sydney before Round 1. Meanwhile, the Raiders remain at their opening $7 price to do one better this time around.
The Parramatta Eels are the best of the middling bunch. They’ve come in from $15 to $12 following the additions of Ryan Matterson and Reagan Campbell-Gillard. Matterson is a quality forward bound for State of Origin while Campbell-Gillard has been there and done that already despite not showing it in 2019. If the pair can play their best footy at an improving Eels club, this $12 won’t stick around for long.
Following on from their surprisingly excellent 2019 season, the Manly Sea Eagles are on the sixth line of betting at $13. They’ve lost Api Koroisau and possibly Manase Fainu as well. However, the addition of Danny Levi and some better luck in the health department should ensure an even better 2020.
It’s now official: North Queensland Toyota Cowboys have agreed to six-year contract with Valentine Holmes – effective immediately
— Dean Ritchie (@BulldogRitchie) November 24, 2019
Valentine Holmes has some massive fans here. His arrival at the North Queensland Cowboys has seen their opening $26 come all the way into $17 as Round 1 approaches. They have the list on paper, but plenty of questions remain over how well the man in the coaches box can use it.
The Brisbane Broncos and Cronulla Sharks complete the list of mid-tier contenders at $19. The Broncos haven’t shifted from their opening price with little news to report out of Redhill. Anthony Seibold will take much of the same squad into 2020 with Brodie Croft the most notable signing.
The Sharks, however, have been caught in a rip throughout the off-season. With Jayden Brailey, Kurt Capewell, Sosaia Feki, Kyle Flanagan and Paul Gallen all no longer at the club, Cronulla’s current $19 comes after opening at $13.
The Penrith Panthers offered so much hope in 2019 but fell flat on their face. This time around, they’ll open the season with expectations closer to the bottom half of the Top 8. On the tenth line of betting at $20 to win the premiership and $2 to play finals football, the Panthers are tough to pick. They could go either way in a big year for coach Ivan Cleary.
Another disappointing 2019 team, the Newcastle Knights have held firm at $23 since the Grand Final. They were poorly coached last season. Nathan Brown was lucky to last as long as he did, but now, Adam O’Brien is in charge. While a rookie head coach, he’s saying the right things. With a decent coach and Jayden Brailey now in Newcastle to provide some consistency at hooker, the Knights may finally be a Top 8 chance.
— NRL (@NRL) August 12, 2019
Surprisingly, the St George Illawarra Dragons have kept their $26 odds. Awful in 2019 and with no high-profile signings over the summer, the Red V are more likely to be in the running for the wooden spoon ($10) than they are the premiership ($26). Add the New Zealand Warriors to that group, too. They can surprise when expectations are low, but they’re unlikely to feature at the pointy end of the season with their $34 price.
The Wests Tigers offer a little more hope at $34. They’re finally a club on the right path. Michael Maguire is putting his fingerprints on the roster. Luciano Leilua has joined the side, and his brother may be there soon, too.
The Canterbury Bulldogs finished the 2019 season well, but we’ve seen them do that before. Wins against teams that have checked out or are cruising towards the finals can often be overrated. Not here, though. The Dogs are out from $34 to $41 to win the premiership while sitting on the second line of betting in the Least Wins market at $4.25.
Justin Holbrook joins the Gold Coast Titans after winning the Super League with St Helen’s last season. He has a tough job ahead of him. The Titans are way out at $67 to win the premiership while entering the 2020 NRL season as $3.50 favourites for the wooden spoon.
NRL PREMIERSHIP MOVES
|Roosters||$4.00 out to $4.20|
|Storm||$5.50 out to $6.00|
|Eels||$15 into $12|
|Cowboys||$26 into $17|
|Sharks||$13 out to $19|
|Broncos||$21 into $19|
|Panthers||$19 out to $20|
|Warriors||$26 out to $34|
|Tigers||$26 out to $34|
|Bulldogs||$34 out to $41|