We’re down to the last game of the NRL season, and for a lot of people, it’s the Grand Final they’ve been expecting since March.
The favourites came through with the goods for NRL punters over the weekend.
Both the Storm and Roosters won head-to-head and covered the spread to set up a Grand Final our traders can’t split.
— NRL (@NRL) September 22, 2018
With all the questions over Cooper Cronk’s injury and Billy Slater’s impending suspension, the Roosters and Storm are at $1.90 each heading into the week.
We will know more about Slater’s availability on Tuesday night while Cronk has until kickoff to rehab and prove his fitness.
Reynolds Costs Punters
With it so difficult to pick a winner in Roosters v Rabbitohs, the ‘either team to win by 6 points or less’ market was a much-talked-about option in the build up.
The Chooks carried an eight-point lead into the final two minutes as punters began to come to terms with the fact the game wouldn’t end as close as first thought.
But with 60 seconds left, the punt was given a lifeline.
Adam Reynolds lined up the penalty goal that would pay the bet out as a winner.
However, he sprayed it and punters returned to counting their losses.
A Look Ahead To The Grand Final
Our traders can’t find anything to separate the two teams but one historical trend points punters in a certain direction.
— NRL (@NRL) September 23, 2018
A striking 80% of Grand Finals since 2008 have finished Under the points Total.
The traditional ‘feeling out period’ tends to drag on longer than normal while all the pressure the comes with playing in front of 80,000 people can see players clam up.
The Storm, in particular, love a low-scoring decider with four of their last five ending Under.
Given the two sides playing on Sunday finished the year as the best defensive teams in the NRL, it’s not difficult to imagine points being at a premium in a defensive arm-wrestle. Likewise, if Slater and/or Cronk don’t run out there, the attacking prowess of either team will take a significant hit.
With so much uncertainty hanging over this one, keeping an eye out for the Total Points market might be the best way to go.