The 2023 NRL premiership continues to keep fans, punters and pundits guessing, with plenty of shuffling on the ladder and in the title market after a rollercoaster Round 7.
Underdog trio makes a move
Brisbane and Penrith maintained their top-two billing, but the NRL table received a signficant shake-up in Round 7 after three home underdogs carved out gutsy wins: Cronulla, Manly (see Statement Game of Round 7 below) and the Warriors.
The Sharks became the fifth team in six rounds to win off the bye, the $2.25 outsiders overturning a halftime deficit to put away big dogs Sydney Roosters.
Nicho 🤝 Brailey 🏎️ #NRLSharksRoosters pic.twitter.com/PoE5lDsLue
— NRL (@NRL) April 14, 2023
It was a scrappy first-half display from the Sharks, whose last outing was an all-time choke after leading the Warriors by 20 in Round 5. But Nicho Hynes – fresh from signing an extension until the end of 2029 – took over after the break, inspiring his side (with the help of Blayke Brailey and Siosifa Talakai) to a 22-12 win with a try assist, two line2breaks, a line-break assist, four tackle-reaks and 105 running metres in the second half alone.
The Warriors have edged in front of the Dolphins as the most impressive surprise-packets of 2023. Somewhat surprising underdogs at home to the Cowboys, the Warriors overcame a huge possession disadvantage (caused by a high error count), a welter of goal-line defence and the absence of at least four first-choice starters to carve out a 22-14 victory.
How about the reflexes from Johnson?! 🤯#NRLWarriorsCowboys pic.twitter.com/eGGfIKJVmz
— NRL (@NRL) April 15, 2023
Renaissance man Shaun Johnson – just three votes off the Dally M lead – again led the way, ably supported by makeshift five-eighth Dylan Walker, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Addin Fonua-Blake.
The Warriors are in a share of second with a 5-2 record that would have seemed fanciful at the start of the season. While still $41 dark-horse material to win it all, the Warriors are just $1.80 to make just their second finals appearance in 12 years, while they’ve shortened to $4.50 for a top-four finish.
Your #NRL ladder at the end of Round 7️⃣ pic.twitter.com/oC7du8ZlHw
— NRL (@NRL) April 16, 2023
Cowboys, Bulldogs on the ropes
North Queensland and Canterbury may only be four and two points adrift of the Top 8, respectively, but occupying spots in the bottom three after seven rounds – ahead of only hapless Wests Tigers – is not what Todd Payten or Cameron Ciraldo would have envisaged for their teams.
Only the Tigers have scored less points per game than the pair, while the Bulldogs’ defence is the third-worst in the NRL. Compounding their ladder position and attacking woes, both teams have been rocked on the injury front.
The 2-5 Cowboys look a shadow of the team that surged into the top four last year. The return of Kangaroos World Cup stars Jeremiah Nanai and Murray Taulagi – along with Scott Drinkwater playing his second game after a suspension – couldn’t crack the gritty Warriors in a 22-14 loss in Auckland.
Time’s starting to march on for the Cowboys, who are set to be without captain Jason Taumalolo for the next six weeks.
Jason Taumalolo will miss the next 4-6 weeks, requiring surgery on a knee cartilage injury. Suffered the injury earlier in the season & played through it, but has now reached the point where surgery is required. Usually involves keyhole removal of damaged portion of meniscus pic.twitter.com/mB2HpIOkaY
— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) April 17, 2023
There’s been a lot more to like about the Bulldogs in 2023 – particularly in wins over Melbourne and North Queensland – but it’s starting to unravel in the face of a packed casualty ward. Backline stars Jacob Kiraz and Jake Averillo picked up injuries in the 30-4 loss to the Eels on Sunday, following hot on the heels of months-long injury diagnoses for Josh Addo-Carr and Viliame Kikau.
Falling out of relevance in the premiership market, the Cowboys ($4.50) and Bulldogs ($6.00) are now rated Top 8 longshots.
Statement game of NRL Round 7
Manly produced a timely Round 7 performance many were skeptical they had in them.
Distinct outsiders against a Melbourne Storm outfit that had overwhelmed Souths and Sydney Roosters in the previous two rounds, the Sea Eagles were searching for a defensive turnaround after leaking 74 points in the previous fortnight against Newcastle and Penrith.
Restricting the Storm to just one try in a teak-tough 18-8 victory surely exceeded the most optimistic expectations of Manly fans and coach Anthony Seibold. It was the first time since the infamous 2011 ‘Battle of Brookvale’ – which got plenty of airtime in the lead-up – that the Storm have breached the Sea Eagles’ line only once.
Turbo turns on the jets ✈️ #NRLManlyStorm pic.twitter.com/bEERIzRn0s
— NRL (@NRL) April 14, 2023
Coming off a flat showing in the big Round 7 loss against the Panthers, Tom Trbojevic finally flourished against his traditional bogey team. The Storm have been experts at shutting down the Sea Eagles’ No.1 dangerman, but he scored just his second try and enjoyed only his third win in 11 career matches against the perennial NRL heavyweights.
But as well as the class of ‘Turbo’ and DCE, it was an aggressive and ultra-committed performance without the ball that underpinned a key win. The Sea Eagles signalled their intentions with a hit-of-the-year contender on Justin Olam and only missed 14 tackles in the match.
Though staying steady at $20 on the seventh line of the premiership market, the fourth-placed Sea Eagles have come in to $1.67 for a Top 8 return and $4.20 to finish in the top four.
What a SHOT 💥 #NRLManlyStorm pic.twitter.com/bmHfAjDEt7
— NRL (@NRL) April 14, 2023
Top half remains steady, big movement further down
Only minor results-based movement behind runaway NRL premiership favourites in the upper reaches of the title market, while the Sharks’ impressive win sees them shorten from $14 to $12 on the sixth line. The Eels and Warriors have come in signficantly, while the 2-5 Cowboys and Dolphins drifted dramatically. The Raiders slid slightly despite an important Round 7 win, while the Titans and injury-ravaged Bulldogs are descending into long-shot territory.
NRL PREMIERSHIP ODDS
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| TEAM | CURRENT PRICE | LAST WEEK’S PRICE | |
| Penrith Panthers | $3.00 | $3.00 | |
| Sydney Roosters | $6.50 | $5.50 | |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | $7.00 | $7.50 | |
| Brisbane Broncos | $7.00 | $8.00 | |
| Melbourne Storm | $7.50 | $7.50 | |
| Cronulla Sharks | $12 | $14 | |
| Manly Sea Eagles | $20 | $20 | |
| Parramatta Eels | $31 | $41 | |
| New Zealand Warriors | $41 | $51 | |
| North Queensland Cowboys | $51 | $26 | |
| The Dolphins | $61 | $36 | |
| Canberra Raiders | $61 | $56 | |
| Newcastle Knights | $76 | $76 | |
| Gold Coast Titans | $81 | $67 | |
| Canterbury Bulldogs | $91 | $76 | |
| St George Illawarra Dragons | $101 | $101 | |
| Wests Tigers | $501 | $501 | |
