2019 NRL Dally M Update

With only five weeks of the regular season to go, we take a look at the 2019 Dally M award frontrunners as well as some roughies who have been flying under the radar. 

The Favourites

Cameron Smith – $3

Incredibly, Smith is in the hunt for his third Dally M award at 36 years of age. Already the oldest player to win the Dally M award after his 2017 award, a win here would top off of an already historic 2019 for the Storm Captain. Priced at $14 at the start of the year, our 2019 Dally M Preview predicted Smith would have his hands all over a successful 2019 campaign and he has exceeded all expectations. At his opening price, Smith proved to be very popular with the punters.

In the Storm’s Rd 20 win, Smith finished with one try, one linebreak assist as well as one try assist. Smith almost certainly finished with a few extra Dally M points. Although Smith is currently the firm favourite, the Storm have a relatively easy run to the finals. As a result, expect Bellamy to rest Smith with the Storm sitting 6 points clear on the top of the ladder.

James Tedesco – $4.25

Many have touted Tedesco as the best player in the world so far in 2019. Teddy is having an incredible year where he has been tearing opposition defences to shreds. So far in 2019, Tedesco has scored 12 tries and leads the NRL in line breaks (16), tackle busts (113) and sits third in run metres (3,177).

The Roosters put the Titans to the sword in Rd 20 where likely added 3 points to his 2019 Dally M tally. Tedesco was unstoppable as he scored 2 tries to go with two try assists. In addition, he ran for 273 metres, had three linebreak assists and eight tackle busts.

On current form and with Smith likely to be rested , Tedesco’s odds should shorten. Although being surrounded by so many other superstars means winning will still prove tough for Tedesco.

Cameron Munster – $7.50

The Storm five eighth keeps going from strength and is now considered the games premier number 6. Previously sitting in second place on 14 votes before voting went behind closed doors, Munster is every chance of taking home the 2019 Dally M. Although Munster regularly shares points with his Captain, if Smith is rested a golden opportunity may present itself.

As a result of the Storm’s dominant season, Munster still looks to be the pick of the halves at $7.50.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – $9

The reigning Dally M medalist has shown no signs of slowing down in 2019. Opening the season at $15, RTS finds himself well placed to go back to back.

After hitting a purple patch of form in recent weeks, RTS has catapulted back into contention for the 2019 Dally M. Averaging over 200 run metres per game, RTS has been unstoppable from the back. In Rd 17 against the Broncos,  Tuivasa-Sheck would have walked away with 3 further Dally M points. RTS ran for 367 metres in a single game, and just like that his name was back in the mix. It is hard to see many Warriors players taking points off their captain and if they can make a run to the finals, RTS is every chance of winning two in a row.

Jason Taumalolo – $9

The 2016 Dally M Medalist is having a stellar individual year for the Cowboys. Running for a career best 207m, the damaging ball runner found himself sitting on 12 Dally M points before the voting went behind closed doors and is priced appropriately at $9.

With the Cowboys missing the focal point of their attack after captain Michael Morgan missed a number of games through injury, there was certainly less competition for Dally M points. It has been a disappointing 2019 for the Cowboys and as a result Taumalolo is an unlikely candidate.

Mitchell Pearce – $11

After a disappointing start to 2019, the Knights got their season back on track with six wins in a row. Led by Pearce and Ponga, the Knights left edge attack begun to click and many believed a Top 4 finish beckoned. During this scintillating run, Pearce won a number of man of the match awards which catapulted him to the top of the Dally M leaderboard after 12 rounds.

Fast forward a few weeks and the Knights are staring down the barrel of a 6th straight defeat. Although their season is hanging by a thread, they have a favourable run home. Realistically, the Knights should be able to win three of their last five games. If successful, the Dally M may well go to Pearce if he plays a major role in any further victories.

Value Bets

Damien Cook – $17

The most electric hooker in the game was right in the mix for the 2018 Dally M where he was at one point as short as $2.25. In 2019, Cook has shown no signs of slowing down. After winning another origin series and with Souths firmly within the Top 4, Cook will be in the mix again and punters have been backing him in since the start of the season.

Priced at $17, Cook will need a strong finish to the season to run down the shorter priced favourites. In addition, Souths last two games will have done Cook’s case no favours. After losing to Cronulla in Rd 20 and a narrow win against the Dragons, Cook unlikely polled any further points.

The Rabbitohs will find themselves up against the top sides in the Storm and Roosters to close out 2019. Souths will be hoping for a relatively dry track so their forwards can get a roll on. As a result, Cook can cause some damage through the middle of the ruck and steal a few points.

Mitch Moses – $23

Moses’ game has gone to another level in 2019. Although much like the Eels, his form can go up and down. When Parramatta manage to get the win, it is largely off the back of their star five eighth. In 2019 Moses has been flourishing leading the attack in a relatively inexperienced spine. Moses also leads the competition in a number of statistics. Sitting atop the NRL in try assists and 4th on the total points leaderboard, there is lots of value at $23.

Josh Hodgson – $81

While the Englishman is a massive smokey, his performances in Canberra’s previous four wins have been nothing short of outstanding. Hodgson picked the Warriors apart in Rd 20 finishing with one try, one linebreak and two linebreak assists. Off the back of his performance, he would have undoubtedly gone home with a number of Dally M points.

If you think Hodgson is little chance, look no further than his market fluctuations as evidence of his value. The crafty hooker was priced at $151 before Rd 20 and as a result of his performance has now jumped into $81. If he can lead the green machine to a few more wins, he may trouble the scorers at the top despite a lengthy layoff earlier in the year.

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