NRL Tips & Preview – Finals Week 3

Sports writer, JASON OLIVER, looks over all four teams and previews this weekend’s Rugby League action with his NRL tips for all Week 3 Finals matches.

History: Played 40, Rabbitohs 19, Sea Eagles 21

Last Meeting: Round 2, 2021: Rabbitohs 26 def. Sea Eagles 12

Final Thoughts: The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles bounced back from their Week 1 defeat to handle the Roosters with relative ease in Week 2. They piled up points early and were never troubled throughout their 42-6 victory. Meanwhile, the South Sydney Rabbitohs did it easier as they sat at home and enjoyed a week off following their impressive 16-10 win over the Panthers in Week 1.

Wayne Bennett has stuck with the same 17 that beat the Sea Eagles in Week 1. Josh Mansour was a chance to make an unlikely return but failed to convince the trainers of his fitness before Tuesday. Similarly, Des Hasler has done the same with his 17 this week after the Sea Eagles managed to come out of their Week 2 victory without injuries.

The Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles are two of the best-attacking teams in the NRL. Both can pile up points in a hurry and put victory out of reach for their opposition in a matter of minutes. However, the Sea Eagles haven’t been able to do that against the best teams this season. They’re not flat-track bullies – that does their dominance a disservice. Manly does need things to go exceptionally well through the middle if they’re to dominate, though. We saw what happens when their middle doesn’t roll up the field in Week 1. We also saw a Rabbitohs side dominate that area of the field and engage in the grind for 80 minutes the same week. Rested, ready and with Bennett preparing them for another 80-minute battle, expect the South Sydney middle to produce a similar result.

This game will be decided in the middle. Souths have shown enough to be confident that their defence can handle pressure and the attack can still score points when they’re not dominating yardage. Adam Reynolds’ kicking game often gets them out of trouble while Cody Walker can manufacture a line break anywhere on the field. The Sea Eagles, on the other hand, haven’t always responded to pressure. They haven’t found too many different ways to break down a defence outside of what has worked for most of the season – hit the edge with Tom Trbojevic out the back of shape and send a winger flying down the touchline. Trbojevic popped up on the inside shoulder a little bit more often last week, but there is only so much we can take out of a relatively easy win. Souths are the side we can trust here and the week off should help them assert the sort of early dominance in the middle that translates into an NRL Grand Final appearance.

Tip: Handicap – Rabbitohs -1.5 @ $1.90

History: Played 38, Storm 28, Panthers 10

Last Meeting: Round 20, 2021: Storm 37 def. Panthers 10

Final Thoughts: The Penrith Panthers were made to work hard by the Eels to win their Week 2 matchup 8-6 on Saturday night. One of the best games of the 2021 NRL season so far, the Melbourne Storm sat back and enjoyed it most knowing that whichever team made it through to them would be coming in battered and bruised.

Josh Addo-Carr is a big inclusion for the Storm this week with Isaac Lumelume dropping to the reserves. Meanwhile, the Panthers are dealing with a tough Week 2 matchup that has already ruled Mitch Kenny out of this one. Brian To’o has been named to return on the wing but Viliame Kikau is in doubt with an ankle injury.

The week off in September doesn’t work for every team but Craig Bellamy and the Storm have been here and done it often enough to know how to deal with it. They’re a side – like the Panthers – that could do with the extra time to nurse a handful of niggling injuries. Penrith’s bruising encounter against Parramatta didn’t impress overall. This once dangerous attack clearly lacks a Plan B and their 18 points scored across two games is a significant cause for concern. It came so easy for the Panthers this year. Perhaps too easy… The Storm, on the other hand, have consistently beaten the teams they are meant to and have proven time and time again that they can find ways to win a close game. Their pack is in superb form and will have their spine playing on the front foot. With versatile players within their key playmaking positions and Harry Grant and Nicho Hynes still to come off the bench, Melbourne can score in a variety of ways. The Panthers play with the best defence in the NRL but will have a tough time containing one of the best attacks in NRL history.

While the Panthers at their best are capable of an upset, we’ve not seen it enough recently to be confident. The Storm shut down Tom Trbojevic with relative ease in Week 1, and with Jarome Luai not posing much of a threat at the moment, Bellamy can put all of his attention onto Nathan Cleary. He has two of the best defensive props in Jesse Bromwich and Christian Welch to start applying pressure with. The Panthers won’t go down easy. Cleary is good enough to drag this team to victory on his own. However, the Storm are in excellent form and have the experience to navigate any hairy moments should the Panthers start well.

Tip: Handicap – Storm -9.5 @ $1.90