Sports writer, JASON OLIVER, looks over all eight teams and previews this weekend’s Rugby League action with his NRL tips for all Week 1 Finals matches.
Melbourne Storm v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles @ Sunshine Coast Stadium
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| Storm | Sea Eagles | |
| Ryan Papenhuyzen | 1 | Tom Trbojevic |
| George Jennings | 2 | Jason Saab |
| Reimis Smith | 3 | Brad Parker |
| Justin Olam | 4 | Morgan Harper |
| Isaac Lumelume | 5 | Reuben Garrick |
| Cameron Munster | 6 | Kieran Foran |
| Jahrome Hughes | 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans |
| Jesse Bromwich | 8 | Josh Aloiai |
| Brandon Smith | 9 | Lachlan Croker |
| Christian Welch | 10 | Marty Taupau |
| Felise Kaufusi | 11 | Haumole Olakau’atu |
| Kenny Bromwich | 12 | Josh Schuster |
| Dale Finucane | 13 | Jake Trbojevic |
| Harry Grant | 14 | Dylan Walker |
| Tui Kamikamica | 15 | Karl Lawton |
| Nelson Asofa-Solomona | 16 | Sean Keppie |
| Nicho Hynes | 17 | Taniela Paseka |
History: Played 39, Storm 23, Sea Eagles 15
Last Meeting: Round 21, 2021: Storm 28 def. Sea Eagles 18
Final Thoughts: The Melbourne Storm managed to get through Round 25 unscathed as they beat the Sharks 28-16. Most importantly, Ryan Papenhuyzen started to look back to his best. Meanwhile, Tom Trobojevic continued to play like the best player in the NRL as the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles handled the Cowboys with relative ease.
The Storm are without Josh Addo-Carr but are otherwise back to full strength for this one. That is unless Cameron Munster’s reported injury rules him out. The Sea Eagles, on the other hand, have made just one change with Josh Aloiai in for Toafofoa Sipley.
There was a moment before last week that the Storm looked a little bit lethargic and disjointed. Then Ryan Papenhuyzen did Ryan Papenhuyzen things and everything was back to normal. While they haven’t played their best footy over the last month, Melbourne looks primed to peak when it matters most. Their handling of Tom Trbojevic in Round 21 is encouraging as well. He still picked up two try assists and made inroads for the Storm right side, but Craig Bellamy’s men did a better job than most to contain the superstar fullback. Expect adjustments from both coaches. Trbojevic playing off the ball and the rest of the Sea Eagles taking advantage of an overactive and Trbojevic-focused defence is likely to be where Des Hasler tries to change things up. Even if Manly does find ways to score a few more points, they still have to contain the best-attacking team in the NRL. Defence wins premierships and finals footy. In a close contest on paper between two elite attacking teams, it’s advantage Storm in the defensive department.
Tip: Tri Bet – Either Team by 10 or Less @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Storm to win/Asofa-Solomona anytime/Under 45.5 points @ $12.79
Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium
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| Roosters | Titans | |
| James Tedesco | 1 | Jayden Campbell |
| Daniel Tupou | 2 | Phillip Sami |
| Josh Morris | 3 | Brian Kelly |
| Adam Keighran | 4 | Patrick Herbert |
| Matt Ikuvalu | 5 | Corey Thompson |
| Drew Hutchison | 6 | Tyrone Peachey |
| Lachlan Lam | 7 | Jamal Fogarty |
| Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | 8 | Jarrod Wallace |
| Sam Verrills | 9 | Mitch Rein |
| Siosiua Taukeiaho | 10 | Moeaki Fotuaika |
| Angus Crichton | 11 | Kevin Proctor |
| Sitili Tupouniua | 12 | Beau Fermor |
| Victor Radley | 13 | Tino Fa’asuamaleaui |
| Sam Walker | 14 | Erin Clark |
| Isaac Liu | 15 | Sam Lisone |
| Egan Butcher | 16 | David Fifita |
| Fletcher Baker | 17 | Jaimin Jolliffe |
History: Played 21, Roosters 13, Titans 8
Last Meeting: Round 14, 2021: Roosters 35 def. Titans 34
Final Thoughts: The Sydney Roosters simply wanted to get through Round 25 without injury and managed to do that while picking up a 40-16 win over the Raiders. Needing to win by at least 11 points on Sunday afternoon, the Gold Coast Titans thrashed the pants off the Warriors 44-0 to book their place in finals footy.
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Victor Radley are back to bolster the Roosters pack with Isaac Liu and Egan Butcher dropping to the bench. For the Titans, Kevin Proctor’s return pushes Sam McIntyre to the reserves.
While the Roosters are still struggling with injuries overall, they’re starting to put the pieces back together. Radley’s return, in particular, raises their attack. His ball-playing ability as a pivot in the middle of the field will free up James Tedesco to spend more time exploring the space on the edges. Starting Sam Walker on the bench is a strange decision but could change. If so, the Roosters can start to put this game in the bag early. The Titans start slow. Persisting with Fifita on the bench, they rarely look like scoring until he enters the field. They’re still hugely dependant on Fifita creating attacking opportunities on his own, too. Jamal Fogarty isn’t a creative half and Tyrone Peachey hasn’t set the world on fire since being thrown into the #6 jersey. Scoring 44 points last week is a nice little confidence booster, but those 44 points came against a Warriors side that wasn’t interested in the hard work after things didn’t go their way early. We’ve seen the Titans look good in attack before struggling to score points a week later plenty of times before this season. The Roosters are well-drilled, ruthless and the superior side on paper. It’s going to take something special from Justin Holbrook, Fifita and the Titans to cause an upset in this one.
Tip: Margin – Roosters 13+ @ $2
Same Game Multi: Roosters -10.5/Morris anytime/Titans Under 17.5 points @ $6.36
Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium
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| Panthers | Rabbitohs | |
| Dylan Edwards | 1 | Blake Taaffe |
| Stephan Crichton | 2 | Alex Johnston |
| Paul Momirovski | 3 | Dane Gagai |
| Matt Burton | 4 | Campbell Graham |
| Brian To’o | 5 | Jaxson Paulo |
| Jarome Luai | 6 | Cody Walker |
| Nathan Cleary | 7 | Adam Reynolds |
| Moses Leota | 8 | Mark Nicholls |
| Api Koroisau | 9 | Damien Cook |
| James Fisher-Harris | 10 | Tevita Tatola |
| Viliame Kikau | 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi |
| Kurt Capewell | 12 | Jaydn Su’A |
| Isaah Yeo | 13 | Cameron Murray |
| Mitch Kenny | 14 | Benji Marshall |
| Spencer Leniu | 15 | Jacob Host |
| Tevita Pangai Jr | 16 | Thomas Burgess |
| Liam Martin | 17 | Jai Arrow |
History: Played 35, Panthers 20, Rabbitohs 15
Last Meeting: Round 23, 2021: Panthers 25 def. Rabbitohs 12
Final Thoughts: The Penrith Panthers named a full-strength side to play themselves into form and did just that to take care of the Eels 40-6 last week. While the South Sydney Rabbitohs rested their star players, they still managed to collect two competition points by beating the Dragons 20-16.
Scott Sorensen is a casualty from Round 24 but is replaced on the Panthers bench by Spencer Leniu. Meanwhile, Blake Taaffe has kept hold of the Rabbitohs #1 jersey as they return to full strength minus the suspended Latrell Mitchell.
This game would preview a lot differently if Mitchell was in the #1 jersey. Instead, the Panthers have been presented with a weakness in a key playmaking position. A weakness that Nathan Cleary can expose better than anybody in the NRL. Blake Taaffe popped up nicely in attack for the Rabbitohs last week. He has good ball skills and his timing improved as the game went on. However, Cleary kicked the Panthers into submission with Mitchell and Josh Mansour at the back in Round 23. The Panthers half has Jaxson Paulo and Taaffe to terrorize this time around. While the Bunnies match up well elsewhere on the field, they need to play from in front. They started well in Round 23 to build an early lead but couldn’t hang on. While the Panthers were patient in their comeback, the Rabbitohs couldn’t keep control of the game and grind out a win in the second half. Walker has torn strips off NRL defences all season. It has come easy for them since Round 11. Too easy, perhaps. Wayne Bennett will preach about their need to embrace the grind this week. There is a bit of 2020 Queensland State of Origin about this team and the scenario. Panthers are a cohesive unit that played themselves into good form last week, though. They’ve been here and done it all before. Expect their patience to be the difference on Saturday night.
Tip: Time of 1st Try – 8 Minutes or Later @ $1.89
Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights @ Browne Park
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| Eels | Knights | |
| Clint Gutherson | 1 | Kalyn Ponga |
| Haze Dunster | 2 | Enari Tuala |
| Will Penisini | 3 | Kurt Mann |
| Waqa Blake | 4 | Bradman Best |
| Blake Ferguson | 5 | Hymel Hunt |
| Dylan Brown | 6 | Jake Clifford |
| Mitchell Moses | 7 | Mitchell Pearce |
| Reagan Campbell-Gillard | 8 | Jacob Saifiti |
| Ray Stone | 9 | Jayden Brailey |
| Junior Paulo | 10 | Daniel Saifiti |
| Shaun Lane | 11 | Tyson Frizell |
| Marata Niukore | 12 | Mitchell Barnett |
| Nathan Brown | 13 | Connor Watson |
| Will Smith | 14 | Sauaso Sue |
| Bryce Cartwright | 15 | David Klammer |
| Isaiah Papali’i | 16 | Josh King |
| Makahesi Makatoa | 17 | Brodie Jones |
History: Played 40, Eels 18, Knights 22
Last Meeting: Round 13, 2021: Eels 40 def. Knights 4
Final Thoughts: The Parramatta Eels reserve grade team won’t take anything out of their 40-6 loss to the Panthers heading into Week 1 of the finals. The Newcastle Knights should consider doing the same following their concerning 35-22 loss to the Broncos.
Brad Arthur has rung in the changes, although, some are surprising. Isaiah Papali’i is on the bench, Ryan Matterson is in the reserves and Joey Lussick isn’t in the side at all. Daniel Saifiti is a big in for the Knights this week who welcome back their rested players for this one.
It remains to be seen whether or not Parramatta resting players in Round 25 was the right decision. Most of this group featured in their impressive win over the Storm in Round 24, but there is no certainty that the form from that match translates into this one two weeks later. The rest will help, but could cohesion and confidence be better? Playing one of the worst 7th-placed teams in NRL history is a good launching pad for the Eels to work their way into finals football. Ranked 15th in attack, the Knights have the worst attacking record of any finals team in NRL history. They join just two others as the only teams to be below-average in both points scored and points conceded across the season. A lot of the bad numbers came while playing without Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga, or both. However, their attack has failed to fire even with the pair back in the side and it’s difficult to see them keep up with a side that has been relatively consistent with the ball for most of the season. Newcastle does profile well to challenge Parramatta in the middle. Brad Arthur’s side showed themselves what it takes to win big games a fortnight ago, though. Expect Arthur to instruct his side towards the middle and to play most of their early footy between the scrum lines.
Tip: Handicap – Eels -7.5 @ $1.90
Same Game Multi: Eels 13+/Dunster first/Over 44.5 points @ $40.48