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Red Zone Returns – Wild Card Round

Only the top teams in the NFL remain and with games expected to be tight in the Wild Card Round, there is value to be found in the props.

Flacco’s Favourite

“Houston is a much better team at home than on the road, while Cleveland’s defensive numbers are propped up by the 13.9 points conceded per game at home. With the Browns allowing 29.4 points per game on the road, Stroud and the Texans should find enough success to threaten an upset.” – Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans Preview

Despite backing the Houston Texans into causing an upset, there is value in the Cleveland Browns offence.

David Njoku has thrived since Joe Flacco’s arrival. He’s seeing plenty of the ball to average seven catches and 93 yards per game in his last four. Importantly for us here, he’s also averaging a touchdown per game.

Since Flacco took over in Week 13, Njoku is 2nd in targets, 3rd in reception, 2nd in yards and 2nd in touchdowns.

Njoku is playing out a career-best season and is one of the more targeted tight ends in the NFL this year to be an appealing option in this one. He is a favourite of Flacco’s and should only gain in targets given the injuries around him. In addition to his red zone targets, Njoku is putting up numbers with yards after the catch. He should have a few opportunities to find the end zone against a Houston Texans that gives up the second-most targets to tight ends in the league.

Bet Now David Njoku - Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $3

Mahomes Carrying The Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is playing out a down season by his standards. Still, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and a proven performer at this part of the season. We’re trusting him to do whatever it takes to drag the Kansas City Chiefs to victory in this one.

Quarterbacks will often put their bodies on the line a little bit more in the playoffs. Mahomes, in particular, averages 27.2 rushing yards per game in the playoffs as opposed to 20.2 in the regular season. His 75 rushing attempts so far this season is a career-high.

He picked up 24 rushing yards the last time these two teams met, but he had Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb to contend with on that occasion. They won’t be out there in the Wild Card Round. This isn’t the Dolphins defence from earlier in the NFL season.

The struggles of his receivers are well-documented. It’s not so much how Mahomes plays that has been disappointing this season, but who he has had to work with on offence. Well aware of the shortcomings of those around him, Mahomes looks good to clear his 28.5 rushing total against a Dolphins defence that has been decimated by injury.

Bet Now Patrick Mahomes - Over 28.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88

Cashing In On CeeDee

It doesn’t matter who the Dallas Cowboys play this season, CeeDee Lamb seems to find the end zone. He’s scored in each of his last eight games and the $1.70 for him to score against the Green Bay Packers suggests he’s about to make in nine.

The Cowboys lead the NFL in scoring thanks to Lamb’s developing partnership with Dak Prescott. That is unlikely to change despite playing a Packers defence there for the taking through the rushing game.

Defensively, Green Bay ranks 26th in rushing attempts, 28th in rushing yards, 17th in touchdowns and 23rd in yards per attempt. It’s an area that has let them down all season. Tony Pollard to finish Over his 60.5 yards is worth exploring given Green Bay’s struggles. However, with their season on the line and Prescott sure to rely on what has worked all season, Lamb will be a target in the red zone.

“While the Packers have done well to get here and anything is possible with Love behind centre, their 27th-ranked defensive DVOA is where they’re likely to fall short against Prescott and the Cowboys.” Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Preview

Bet Now CeeDee Lamb - Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.70

Kyren Keeps Rushing

Kyren Williams single-handedly won NFL fantasy leagues this season.

He cleared 100 yards in four of his last six games. His rushing total is set at 82.5 for this one – a number he’s cleared in each of those six games.

The Detroit Lions are one of the better rushing defences in the NFL. They rank 3rd in attempts and 2nd in yards allowed and while they give up a few touchdowns to running backs to rank 17th in the league, Williams has scored five touchdowns in his last three games and is at $1.77 to make it six in four games.

Still, despite Detroit’s ability to defend the run, Williams will get his opportunities.

Rushing Attempts – Last 5 Games: 20, 22, 27, 25, 21

Williams will get his 20 carries. While it’s indoors and conditions for putting the ball in the air, Williams’ form and the speed of the game should see him presented with enough opportunities to clear the 82.5 yards.

Bet Now Kyren Williams - Over 82. 5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88

Banking On Baker

Baker Mayfield has surprised even the most one-eyed optimists with his level of play this season. The level and consistency are like nothing we’ve seen from him. Not for this long, anyway.

His passing yards total is set at 236.5 and appeals off the bat.

The Eagles defence is bad. Really bad. Lucky to be here given their recent form, Philly’s passing defence ranks 32nd in attempts, 31st in yards and 31st in touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Mayfield has cleared 236.5 yards ten times this season. He managed only 173 against the Carolina Panthers last week but that isn’t a major concern. He has an uncanny knack for backing up a poor performance with a banger.

His 4,044 yards so far this season is a career-high. So, too, is his 74.9% On Target Percentage. Mayfield is more accurate than ever, and this poorly performing and injury-impacted Eagles defence is unlikely to apply enough pressure to contain him.

It doesn’t feel right to be backing Mayfield in a big spot. He’s underachieved for so much of his NFL career. However, Mayfield has a favourable matchup in front of him here and if there’s one thing we know, for better or worse, he will go out slinging.

Bet Now Baker Mayfield - Over 236.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88

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