The 2024 NFL season kicks on into Week 8, and we’ve got five of the best bets from around the league, headlined by Jared Goff and the Lions.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been fantastic to start the NFL season. They’re 4-3 after Week 7 and looked like a strong NFC South contender. However, they will go into this division matchup against the Atlanta Falcons without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
HC Todd Bowles says WR Chris Godwin will be undergoing surgery and will likely be out for the rest of the season. There's a small chance if the Bucs make a playoff run, Godwin could make it back.
— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) October 22, 2024
Mayfield has exceeded expectations since his arrival in Tampa Bay, but this is a different scenario. He’s now without two key contributors and two of the most reliable receivers in the NFL.
Godwin was playing out a career-best year before his injury in Week 7. Only Ja’Marr Chase has recorded more than Godwin’s 576 receiving yards. No player in the NFL has more than Godwin’s 50 receptions and 350 yards after catch. When in doubt, Mayfield has been able to throw it up to Godwin for his receiver to do the rest.
Meanwhile, Evans is a Bucs mainstay. This will be just the 10th regular season game he has missed in his 10-year career. As a result of his durability, he’s Tampa Bay’s all-time leader in receiving yards.
The Atlanta Falcons have their own problems but did beat the Buccaneers once already back in Week 5. They look good to make it 2-0 for the season, given the lack of reliable talent Mayfield has at his disposal and the potential for turnovers that come with it.
Bet Now Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ $1.90
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
The natural lean when seeing a double-digit favourite is towards the underdog. However, double-digit favourites at home have covered at 54% over the last five years. When the quarterback of that favourite has played out one of the most efficient four-game stretches in NFL history leading in, we’re going with them.
Jared Goff has been a wizard recently. He seems to have as long as he likes to pass the ball and will have even longer in Week 8. The Tennessee Titans don’t apply a lot of pressure which is a recipe for disaster. The Detroit Lions are already 3rd in points per game on the back of Goff’s 1,610 yards and 10 touchdowns.
This is absurdity from Jared Goff pic.twitter.com/rYvpxkUqmT
— Football Digest (@FoootballDigest) October 21, 2024
It’s difficult to see the Titans’ offence—if you can call it that—keeping up with the Lions. That’s before considering the turnover battle.
The Lions rank 3rd in turnover differential to the Titans’ 31st.
Detroit’s 11 takeaways are good for 7th in the NFL, while the Titans have managed only three (31st). Meanwhile, the Titans have given it away 12 times (3rd-most) to the Lions’ five.
Even if the Lions can’t replicate their form of recent weeks, it’s likely that the Titans will give them too many chances to score throughout the game. Goff will make the most of those chances in the end.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
This game presents two opportunities we’ve found success chasing this NFL season: Bounceback game and buy low.
The Bounceback: The San Francisco 49ers need to respond this week following their 28-18 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7. Already ravaged by injuries and made worse by losing Brandon Aiyuk and Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers can’t afford to drop many more games.
Buy low: Brock Purdy played a shocker last week—one of the worst games of his NFL career to date. However, two things need considering: Purdy finished the game throwing to his fourth, fifth, and sixth wide receivers, while the only other really poor period of his career to date came while the 49ers’ offence was plagued with injury.
What the 49ers are dealing with on the injury front to their offence, the Dallas Cowboys are dealing with similar defensively. They’re hobbled on that side of the ball while ranking 25th in offensive EPA/Drive and and 22nd in success rate.
While the 49ers offence isn’t at full-strength, the system remains. Deebo Samuel has a chance of returning, too. He’d be enough on his own to produce points.
Bet Now San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks
The Buffalo Bills have started the figure out their offence and produced 34 unanswered points in Week 7.
What’s scary for the rest of the league is that Amari Cooper didn’t even have a grasp of the playbook before running out onto the field. With another week to iron out the kinks, the Bills offence could yet improve further.
Bills WR Keon Coleman literally had to demonstrate to Amari Cooper what route to run because he didn't know the play before catching his first TD in Buffalo 😂 pic.twitter.com/rGSMphRct7
— NFL Memes (@NFLMemes) October 20, 2024
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks have struggled for consistency. They’ve turned the ball over a little bit too often and are middling with it. Defensively, Seattle’s EPA/play ranks 15th in the NFL.
The Seahawks have done well to beat the bad teams but struggled against the good ones. Buffalo is too good for this midding Seattle team, and when Josh Allen wins, he tends to win big.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Neither the Philadelphia Eagles nor the Cincinnati Bengals are playing particularly well right now.
Philly are picking up wins to be 4-2, but a lot of it has come down to Saquon Barkley. He is papering over the cracks as one of the best running backs in the NFL right now. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is struggling. He was shakey again in Week 7 taking four sacks on 21 dropbacks. The 3.34 seconds he averaged when throwing the ball was his second-highest mark of the season as struggled to read the Giants defence.
The Eagles weren’t as good as the 25-point win suggests.
Cincy have their own struggles. Poor to start the season and scrambling for wins of late, they look nothing like the Super Bowl LIX contenders they were expected to be. However, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are slowly starting to piece things together and should continue at home.
The Bengals haven’t been great in defending the run to rank 30th in EPA/rush through seven weeks. Barkley looks set for another big game. But can the Eagles scrape through again on the back of one man? The Bengals passing game ranks 5th in the NFL and is improving.
At home, on the up and able to focus on taking away the Eagles running game, the Bengals are playing for their season and should get the job done.