The 2024 NFL season kicks on into Week 7, and we’ve got five of the best bets from around the league headlined by the New York Giants.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Nick Sirianni was a little bit too chuffed with his Philadelphia Eagles beating a hapless Cleveland Browns by only four points last week.
He got stuck into fans in the crowd and took his kids to the post-game press conference.
Four points…
Browns…
The Eagles struggled in Week 6. While they kept the Browns to only 16 points without a touchdown, Philly are also the only team in the NFL this season not to score in the opening 15 minutes. There isn’t a lot to like about the Eagles offence which ranks 18th in points, 10th in yards, 22nd in points per play, 25th in red zone scoring percentage and 12th in offensive DVOA.
Giants will be without LT Andrew Thomas on Sunday.
The Eagles will also be without LT Jordan Mailata.
— The Birds Blitz (@TheBirdsBlitz) October 15, 2024
Defensively, the Eagles are getting picked to pieces by even the most mildly competent quarterback play to rank 30th in opposition completion percentage, 31st in interceptions, 20th in yards per pass and 26th in defensive DVOA. Daniel Jones isn’t an elite quarterback, but you don’t need to be to beat the Eagles pass defence right now.
The Giants pushed the Bengals closer than the final 17-7 scoreline suggests. They should do the same against the Eagles at home in this one.
Bet Now New York Giants +3.5 @ $1.87
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
This is it for the Los Angeles Rams. They’re under .500 and already in a bad spot already for making the playoffs this season ($7.50). However, they’re coming into Week 7 fresh off a bye and improved in the healthy department with Cooper Kupp expected to return at the very least.
They need a win to keep in touch with the rest of the division.
#Rams WR Cooper Kupp, attempting to return from a high-ankle sprain, had a positive workout today and his return this week is at least possible, sources say.
The next step is to see when he practices and how it goes. The team will gather more info, but today presented good news. pic.twitter.com/hX6ZmoI3ex
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 15, 2024
The Raiders, on the other hand, have been expectedly poor. They’re a bad football team made worse by trading away Davante Adams. They received a conditional third for their star wide receiver. While it might translate into something positive in the future, it’s not helping the Raiders this week.
The Rams are currently a poor defensive team, ranking 30th in defensive DVOA. However, the Raiders are struggling with the ball and getting worse. They’re down key personnel, and Aidan O’Connell hardly inspires confidence alongside coach Antonio Pierce.
While the Rams are 1-4, they’re a far superior team on paper and should prove as much in this one.
Bet Now Los Angeles Rams -6.5 @ $1.96
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
The wheels have fallen off the Seattle Seahawks. Starting the NFL season 3-0, they’re now 3-3 and face the Atlanta Falcons as $2.26 and +2.5 underdogs.
Some extra time to rest following their Week 6 Thursday Night Football loss to the San Francisco 49ers will help. Seattle should be close to full strength heading into this one. They’ll be well-rested and ready to take on Kirk Cousins, who has had his moments this season, but has struggled against pressure. Expect Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald to harness that element to their defence this week.
Offensively, Geno Smith won’t face the same pressure. The Falcons rank 27th in pass-rush win rate, and Smith has proven to be lethal in a clean pocket. Kenneth Walker III looks primed for a big game against a Falcons defence that ranks 27th in early down passing success rate, too.
Kenneth Walker:
No. 1 in NFL in @PFF rush grade (90.5)
No. 1 in the NFL in MTF/Att (.35), per @FantasyPts (min 25 rush)
No. 1 in double-flips during a run without hitting the ground* (*okay he maybe did but they didn’t call it)No. 4 in half-PPR PPG (19.4)
No. 4 in expected…— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) October 15, 2024
Cousins has managed to find a way to win so far this season and the Falcons are playing well. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have stumbled in recent weeks. This feels like the perfect time to sell high on the Falcons and buy low on the Seahawks.
Bet Now Seattle Seahawks +2.5 @ $2.05
Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’ve got two of the top four offensive teams going head-to-head as the Baltimore Ravens (29.5 points per game) take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29.7ppg).
While it might seem too obvious to take the Over in this one, 48.5 is an appealing number.
Lamar Jackson is in MVP-winning form yet again and added to his status as favourite last week:
“As the Commanders looked to take Derick Henry out of the game and demanded Jackson pass the ball against a packed box, the quarterback threw for 323 yards and a touchdown.” – Week 6 NFL Review
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has the Bucs offence firing on all cylinders, coming into this one on the back of a 50-burger in Week 6.
Where we lean towards the over, though, is in defence. Rather, the lack of it.
The Ravens average more yards per game than any other team in the NFL. However, they’re giving up almost just as much to rank 26th in yards allowed. The Bucs will move up the field and into the red zone, where they’re converting 65% of their visits into touchdowns (9th).
We know Baltimore will score. They’re the best red zone team in the league, and the Bucs have struggled to stop teams, allowing the opposition to score a touchdown on 66% of their visits.
Everything points to a shootout which normally forces consideration of the Under. But neither team is doing a good enough job defensively. Expect the points to pile up in Tampa.
Bet Now Total Points - Over 48.5 Points @ $1.90
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are the surprise team of the NFL so far this season. They’ve exceeded every expectation of them, and Sam Darnold is hitting heights most never thought he could reach. They’ve been fantastic to rank first in DVOA after Week 6.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are right behind them in DVOA at 2nd.
This is a banger matchup, but the feeling is that the Vikings are slightly overvalued. They’ve been great, but 2.5 favourites to the Super Bowl-contending Detroit Lions?
Darnold has been brilliant, but the Vikings offence is middling by many metrics. They rank 18th in offensive DVOA, 15th in yards per play and 13th in EPA per play. Middling isn’t good enough to beat a high-powered Lions team by much.
Aidan Hutchinson is a massive out for the Lions. His season-ending injury puts a dent in their Super Bowl hopes. However, for this week against an offence that won’t blow the doors off them, Detroit should keep it close.
Bet Now Detroit Lions +2.5 @ $1.88