The 2024 NFL season kicks on into Week 17, and we’ve got five of the best bets from around the league headlined by Josh Allen.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Put us down for a Buffalo Bills bounceback game, please.
They’d already won their fifth-consecutive AFC East division title before scraping past the New England Patriots in Week 16. Perhaps complacency – and the cold – played a part in their slow start to the game. In fact, New England led 14-7 at halftime before the Bills extinguished the deficit in the first possession of the third quarter before winning 24-21.
Buffalo played without four defensive players, too. Still, coach Sean McDermott didn’t want to make any excuses.
“Yeah, it was concerning. Starting with the kickoff, win the toss, we defer, try to get field position for our offense, and it just wasn’t complementary, clearly, in any area.”
The concern gives life to the idea of a refocus this week against a Jets team primed to be picked off.
Aaron Rodgers said himself that some players are “ready to get out.”
New York held the lead in the fourth quarter only to blow it for the sixth time this season – the most in the NFL. Don’t expect them to hold one in Week 17, though. The Bills will be looking to make up for a poor performance last week and have a strong history of covering as favourites.
Bet Now Buffalo Bills -9.5 @ $1.90Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
You’d hope that a game between the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants isn’t a necessary inclusion in the final five, but Week 17 is one of those weeks in the NFL. It’s difficult to pick, which is how we end up in this trust exercise.
Anthony Richardson is inconsistent but doesn’t need to do a lot in the air at the moment. The Colts ran for a single-game franchise record 335 yards against the Tennessee Titans last week. Richardson only threw the ball 11 times while adding 70 yards on the ground. Jonathan Taylor, as usual, dominated for 218 yards on 29 carries.
Not only are the New York Giants one of the worst teams in football and odds on to land the No.1 pick in the NFL Draft, they’re particularly poor against the run to rank 28th in defensive EPA/rush.
The Colts flew out to a 38-7 lead over the Titans before taking their foot off the gas last week. Provided results go their way, there is still plenty to play for in this one. The Giants, on the other hand, have checked out for the season. It’s difficult to see them getting much past this sneaky defence Colts defence.
Bet Now Indianapolis Colts -7.5 @ $1.90Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
There is still life in the Miami Dolphins season.
Whether or not the Denver Broncos beat the Cincinnati Bengals earlier in the weekend, the Dolphins are in must-win territory and face a Cleveland Browns team who are barely showing up.
Dolphins Playoff Path:
✅ Win: vs. Browns (W17) & Jets (W18).
➕ Need 2 of 3:
1️⃣ Chargers lose to Patriots (W17) & Raiders (W18).
2️⃣ Broncos lose to Bengals (W17) & Chiefs (W18).
3️⃣ Colts lose to Giants (W17) and/or Jaguars (W18). pic.twitter.com/FU0AkYITo5— Dolphins Muse (@DolphinsMuse) December 23, 2024
Cleveland has benched Jameis Winston in favour of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. You might be able to more acurately predict what Thompson-Robinson is going to produce, but that is the problem. It isn’t a lot. Winston, for all of his faults, gives the offence a chance to score points.
It’s rarely a problem for the Dolphins. They needed five field goals to beat the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, but at least put themselves in positions to score. They’re much better at home and particularly enjoy beating up on bad teams. While they’re on the road in this one, the Browns tick the bad team angle well enough.
The Dolphins aren’t a strong defensive team overall, but they rank well against the run. That is going to force Thompson-Robinson to throw the ball after being sacked five times and throwing two picks last week.
Expect the Dolphins to take a similar approach while scoring regularly enough to blow the game out by the end.
Bet Now Miami Dolphins -6.5 @ $1.90Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots are coming into this game from vastly different angles.
LA is trying to clinch a playoff berth. Currently 9-5, the Chargers currently occupy the second wild-card spot and can seal it with a victory. Meanwhile, the Patriots are playing for nothing. This was always a rebuilding season under a new coach. Still, following a relatively promising start and an uptick with Drake Maye taking over at quarterback, the improvement has stalled.They look like a team that has checked out.
The Chargers might not be among the Super Bowl contenders but are in fine form. They’ve won six of their last nine games. Notably, two of those losses came in one-possession games against the Ravens and Chiefs.
🚨JUSTIN HERBERT IS ASBURD🚨
HERBERT ESCAPED, ROLLED LEFT, FALLING AWAY, THROWS A DIME FOR AN INSANE TOUCHDOWN PASS.
🤯🤯🤯
One of the most talented pure quarterbacks we have ever seen.
INSANE. WATCH THIS. pic.twitter.com/3oyJ09e0z5
— MLFootball (@MLFootball) December 20, 2024
While Maye shows glimpses of promise for the Patriots (he is the future), their defence has struggled to stand up. They’ve allowed over 24 points in five consecutive games and don’t appear to have the weather advantage this week against a visiting West Coast opponent. Justin Herbert looks primed to make the most of the easy passage up the field for the Chargers to pile up points.
Bet Now Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 @ $1.96Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders
Give us the points here.
Michael Penix, albeit against the lowly Giants, made his debut in the NFL last week. He put up impressive numbers to average 7.5 yards per attempt while his 81.5% catchable throw rate was the fourth-best among all quarterbacks over the week. Unlike Kirk Cousins who he replaced, Penix can move in the pocket. He’s able to avoid sacks and turnover-worthy plays.
Just finished breaking down Penix Jr Film (will be on my YouTube later)
He has it. Decision-making, timing, accuracy, anticipation, velocity, layered throws, manipulating defenders with his eyes, standing and delivering in the face of pressure, and COMMAND
The Falcons got one
— Kurt Benkert (@KurtBenkert) December 23, 2024
Meanwhile, the Commanders played one of the best defences in the NFL last week, and Jayden Daniels played out one of the best games of his young career.
“The Washington Commanders turned the ball over five times, but their quarterback canceled them out with five touchdowns while leading his team to a 36-33 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.” – Learning From Commanders v Eagles
Penix will be further tested in this one as the league watches more film on him. Still, the Commanders defence is among the worst in the NFL. It’s unlikely that his ‘welcome to the league’ game occurs this week. Instead, we look set for a shootout. We know Daniels is good to find points and can’t trust the Commanders defence to stop them from coming the other way.
It’s an exciting game between two rookie quarterbacks in prime time. Backing the points only adds to it.
Bet Now Total Points - Over 47.5 @ $1.90