The 2024 NFL season kicks on into Week 16, and we’ve got five of the best bets from around the league headlined by Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Mike Tomlin is a wizard as an underdog in the NFL.
He takes that wizardry to another level against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Overall, as underdogs of 4+ points, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-0 against the spread when facing the Ravens. More specifically to Tomlin v Jackson, Jackson is 0-5 as a favourite of -4 or better. He’s an impressive 52-39-1 against all other teams.
Tomlin knows what he’s doing against Jackson already, and the Steelers present as the value option.
Dan Orlovsky:
"I honestly believe, in my gut, Mike Tomlin wants the ball in Lamar Jackson's hands. … He 100 percent respects him, but he thinks he's got his number." #RavensFlock
via @GetUpESPN pic.twitter.com/uBqiFxuw0i
— Bobby Trosset (@bobbytrosset) December 19, 2024
Pittsburgh was bad last week. Meanwhile, the Ravens played particularly well. It feels as though the respective performances have led to an inflation on the price given Baltimore is a $1.32 and -6.5 favourte against a very good Steelers team who has had their number from a betting perspective of late.
The Steelers defence historically gives Jackson fits and could yet see T.J. Watt return for this one. If George Pickens can find a way to get on the field, they +6.5 head start is a gift. Even if Pickens is unavailable, the Steelers defence should be strong enough to contain Jackson and keep the game close.
Bet Now Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 @ $1.90Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears
A list of Detroit Lions defensive players on IR:
– DT Alim McNeil
– DT Kyle Peko
– DT Mekhi Wingo
– ED Aidan Hutchinson
– ED Marcus Davenport
– ED John Cominsky
– LB Alex Anzalone
– LB Derrick Barnes
– LB Malcolm Rodriguez
– LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin
– CB Carlton Davis
– CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
– CB Khalil Dorsey
– S Ifeatu Melifonwu.
The Lions are decimated on the defensive side of the ball but remain one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the NFL. Despite the injuries, they scored on their final four drives against the Buffalo Bills in a barnstormer game last week. Jared Goff and the Lions generated 30 first downs and 521 yards.
Moving the ball and scoring points isn’t a problem for this group. It shouldn’t be this week against the Chicago Bears, either. While David Montgomery is another Lion on the injury list, Jahmyr Gibbs is more than capable of capitalising on Chicago’s 31st-ranked run defence DVOA. From there, Goff can have his way with the ball and keep the scoreboard ticking over as the defence fights with everything they have healthy.
Bet Now Detroit Lions Over 28.5 Points @ $2.15Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
The Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets both picked up wins in Week 15. While the Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers to keep their season alive, they were far from impressive. Matthew Stafford, in particular, threw for 160 yards without a turnover, but had three throws that should have been interceptions.
Stafford has a prime opportunity to play himself back into form against a poor Jets defence. They rank 21st in EPA per play and have failed to live up to the positive reputation built while losing games in recent years. More recently, the Jets rank 29th in pass defence EPA per play since Week 9.
Similarly, Aaron Rodgers can continue his uptick in form against a comparatively poor Rams defence. He found 289 yards and three touchdowns against the 32nd-ranked Jacksonville Jaguars last week. The Rams aren’t a lot better. Los Angeles ranks outside the Top 20 in pass defence DVOA, EPA and success rate.
"You're talking about two Hall of Famers. Guys that have been doing it at a high clip for an incredibly long time."#Rams HC Sean McVay talks Aaron Rodgers vs Matthew Stafford w/ @AdamSchein and the gameplan against the Jets.
🎧 https://t.co/jP0HFpFutU pic.twitter.com/fug6wnDcFg
— Mad Dog Sports Radio (@MadDogRadio) December 19, 2024
The Rams offence has struggled of late, but is stacked with points at their best. Meanwhile, Rodgers is starting to link up well with Davante Adams and put up encouraging numbers.
Neither team offers a lot of hope defensively. They do, however, offer hope for points.
Bet Now Total Score - Over 46.5 Points @ $1.90Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
“A.J Brown and Jalen Hurts are friends again. They combined early for the Philadelphia Eagles to look the better team throughout their 27-13 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.” – Around The NFL: Week 15
Philly beat a strong Steelers team in Week 15, and did so without Saquon Barkley needing to dominate. Instead, Brown and Hurts rekindled their partnership on the field and won the game in the air on the back of an always-strong defence.
It’s on the defensive end that the Eagles have elevated themselves into $5.50 contenders to win Super Bowl LIX. They’ve recovered well from a slow start to the NFL season to now be among the favourites to win it all.
The NFC East Division can be won on Sunday in Landover, MD.
An Eagles win and they clinch the division title.
Commanders LB Frankie Luvu said, "it's going to come down to physicality and heart…who wants it more? It's going to be a dog fight, but we're going to get it done." pic.twitter.com/e02PJRrbRR
— Scott Abraham (@Scott7news) December 18, 2024
The Washington Commanders, on the other hand, have taken a dive. They’re still winning games and look poised to feature in the playoffs, but their offence isn’t what it once was. In fact, after leading the NFL in EPA per play throughout the first seven weeks, the Commanders rank a middling 13th since then. Jayden Daniels is still expected to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but hasn’t looked the same since learning what it’s like to be hit in this league and navigating the injuries and discomfort that come with it.
He’s up against an elite Eagles defence who have 15 weeks of tape this time. With the ball, Philly ripped through the Commanders in the second half in their last match. With the passing game improved and the defence reliable, we can expect an even better performance this time around.
Bet Now Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ $1.90Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the NFL right now. They beat another one of the worst in the Carolina Panthers last week and appear to be a little bit overvalued this week as a result. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to fly under the radar as potential disruptors in the playoffs.
Dallas took advantage of the opportunity to play one of the NFL’s worst defensive teams to accumulate 410 total yards. In what has become a rarity this season, they found success on the ground through Rico Dowdle. While not 31st in EPA per rush like the Panthers (Cowboys are the only team worse) the Buccaneers are at a superior 19th. Dallas won’t be able to rely on the ground game to counter Cooper Rush at quarterback quite so much this week.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are flying. They’ve won four on the bounce including a 40-17 win over the Chargers. They’ve outscored their opponents 124-60 in that span. Sure, Tampa Bay has benefited from a soft schedule, but that schedule continues against Dallas this week. There is little reason to suggest their dominance shouldn’t continue either.
Bet Now Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 @ $1.86