The 2024 NFL season kicks on into Week 14, and we’ve got five of the best bets from around the league headlined by Baker Mayfield.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
The Green Bay Packers are a team built for the NFL playoffs and this one will have a playoff feel.
We’ve been waiting for the week to get on the other side of the Detroit Lions. They’ve been dominant for the most part but presented well as favourites. Getting a field goal here on the Packers, though, is a gift worth taking.
The Lions play with the best offence in the NFL. Jared Goff does it in the air and their ground game is incredible. While no team can entirely stop them, the Packers are in good form and rank 10th in defensive EPA per play. They can slow down this high-powered Lions offence.
The @Lions offense and the challenge the present to @packers defense tonight in @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/T1W6iLtG69
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 5, 2024
Detroit are dealing with injuries. Their power game is what allows them to make up for those injuries most weeks, but the Packers are a different beast. Green Bay can match them while Matt LaFleur has a strong history as an underdog.
La Fleur is 24-12 (67%) as an underdog. Narrowed down to the +3.5 line in this one, he’s has a 14-3 record as an underdog of over three points. The Packers look good to improve further on that record with the head start.
Bet Now Green Bay Packers +3.5 @ $1.80New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
We took the easy trend last week: Miami Dolphins on the road against a good team in cold conditions.
We’re taking the easy one again this week: Miami Dolphins at home against a bad team in good conditions.
With Tua Tagaovailoa back in the team the Dolphins are back to their best. Their best is beating up on bad teams, and none are worse right now than the New York Jets.
The New York front office scapegoated Robert Saleh after a poor start to the NFL season but they’ve been worse since. The Jets rank dead last in EPA per play since Saleh was marched out of the building.
Aaron Rodgers looks his age. He refuses to look down the field as the Jets averaged only 4.2 yards per play in their Week 13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. There is little to suggest anything changes with the Jets defence this week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been one of the best in EPA per play, success rate and points per drive since Tagovailoa’s return.
The Dolphins should have far too many points in them for Rodgers and the Jets to keep it close.
Bet Now Miami Dolphins -5.5 @ $1.90Las Vegas Raiders v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Everything went right for the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13 and they still couldn’t get the job done. Sure, it was against the Kansas City Chiefs, but it’s difficult to imagine the Raiders playing much better in this one.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really struggled through their 26-23 win over the Carolina Panthers. Baker Mayfield threw two interceptions and Tampa Bay needed overtime to beat a bad team. Still, they found a way to win and Mayfield rarely plays two bad games in a row.
“He’s just a dog, man.”@Chaad_1 on Baker Mayfield and why he’s such a great leader for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after Tom Brady pic.twitter.com/M7stPjHc8H
— GoJo and Golic (@GoJoandGolic) December 5, 2024
The Las Vegas defence will give Mayfield the opportunity to play himself back into form. While the Raiders lead the NFL in pass rush win rate this season, they have little else functioning on the defensive end. They’re 30th in defensive EPA per pass if that pass rush isn’t successful in stopping the quarterback.
Mayfield hasn’t performed well as a favourite historically against the spread, but this is a good bounce-back spot in a time the Buccaneers are playing for the NFC South. He should be able to keep the Raiders are arms length throughout.
Bet Now Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 @ $1.90Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
There is a world where we’re looking at Kirk Cousins and backing him in against his former team. However, that world doesn’t come in one where he threw four picks a week earlier.
The Atlanta Falcons are +5.5 underdogs to Cousins’ former team, the Minnesota Vikings. He will find it tough to play himself back into form against a team that knows him so well.
Minnesota’s defence ranks third in EPA per play and third in success rate. They’re strong week-to-week and Brian Flores will have another blitz-heavy plan in this one. The Vikings already play with the highest blitz-rate in the NFL which leads to a 27% pressure rate. Flores will no doubt dial it up even further against a quarterback who is struggling to move in the pocket.
Kirk Cousins’ stats in his last 3 games:
• 62.5% completion rate
• 724 pass yards
• 0 TDs – 6 INTs
• 59.1 passer rating#Falcons pic.twitter.com/cZYr8BIf50— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) December 5, 2024
Cousins can still throw a dot. Give him time and he will make a defence pay. However, his mobility has been greatly reduced this season and this is a nightmare spot for him after a poor performance last week.
While displaying a lot of promise defensively, the Vikings don’t inspire confidence with the ball either. They’ve won five games in a row, but took advantage of three of the worst teams in the NFL to do it. They’ve only cleared 23 points once in their last six games as Sam Darnold dips down from his early-season form.
Points look hard to come by here.
Bet Now Total Points - Under 45.5 @ $1.90Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
There is a Raiders-of-last-season feel to the Chicago Bears this week. A coach who the players seemingly didn’t want to play for has been given his marching orders and this team that has still managed to stay in games can finally move forward.
They will do so without the handbrake on the sideline who has cost them at key times this season. Last week is only the latest example.
“Chicago did all of the hard work to come back from 16-0 behind before pulling to within three points, 45 seconds and 25 yards away from goal. Remarkably, the Bears couldn’t get the field goal away to send the game to overtime.” – Bear, Oh Bear
Thomas Brown takes over from Matt Eberflus this week. He has already done a great job of improving Caleb Williams for a 99.2 passer rating, five touchdowns and no interceptions since assuming the role as interim offensive coordinator. The Bears have a great opportunity to continue their roll with the ball against a banged up San Francisco 49ers.
It’s all over for San Francisco this season. They started the year with Super Bowl aspirations but injuries have all but ended that idea. Christian McCaffrey’s latest is the nail in the coffin. While still well-coached and with weapons, the 49ers will limp through the rest of the NFL season.
As the 49ers tumble, the Bears have received a shot of life and should keep it close if not take the chocolates as $2.65 underdogs.
Bet Now Chicago Bears +3.5 @ $1.92