Coming into Week 10 of the NFL season following a 4-1 record last week, we’re looking into five more games on the slate.
New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sometimes you just have to accept the luck you’ve been afforded and learn from it.
That’s what we’re doing here with the New York Jets after fading them in Week 9 and collecting on the LA Chargers -3.5. We could either pat ourselves on the back for finding another winner or acknowledge that the Jets defence is that good and only a horrible, horrible performance from Zach Wilson stopped them from at least making the game competitive.
The Jets are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to have their defense collect 5+ sacks, hold the opponent to under 200 yards and not allow any 25+ yard plays and yet lose the game by 20+ points.
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) November 7, 2023
The idea that the Jets defence is overrated has been put to bed. They’re comfortably one of the best units in the NFL and we’re once again wondering what they’re doing wasting another year on a quarterback that clearly isn’t up to it. New York had plenty of time to react to Aaron Rogers’ injury but persisted with Wilson to expected results.
Against a Las Vegas Raiders team that should drop slightly from the new coach bounce running with a rookie quarterback, we’re trusting this top-shelf Jets defence to do the job. They’re good enough as a unit to put a lid on the Raiders and win despite Wilson’s probable shortcomings.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
C.J. Stroud has been a favourite in the weekly review segment all season. He’s an exciting rookie quarterback putting up historic numbers and is coming off the best game of his young career.
This week, however, he has to travel to the Cincinnati Bengals to play Joe Burrow who has flown into MVP form of late.
For as good as Stroud has been this season, he’s done the majority of his good work from the comfort of home. In his four home games, he has thrown 11 touchdowns, 339 yards per game and 9.7 yards per attempt. In his four road games, he has managed only three touchdowns, 227 yards per game and 6.85 yards per attempt.
Stroud and the Texans are also dealing with A LOT of injuries…
The longest injury report I’ve seen from the Texans all year.
Expect a lot of “next man up” pic.twitter.com/Tc5tNkX8PB
— DJ Bien-Aime (@Djbienaime) November 8, 2023
The Bengals are on fire. They’ve recovered from their 1-3 start to the NFL season to have won and covered each of their last four games. Burrow has propelled himself onto the fifth line of betting in the MVP market at $9 while the Bengals are back among the Super Bowl LVIII contenders at $14.
There is little doubt that the Bengals are the better team. Particularly at home. This feels like a spot that will see some overreaction on Stroud and the Texans, too. His struggles on the road have gone largely unmentioned while his Week 9 performance has been the talk of the town. Sell high on the Texans and swallow the points on the Bengals.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers
The Detroit Lions have impressed across the first half of the NFL season. They’ve done it with each member of their offensive line spending at least one game in the rehab room, too. In Week 10, however, it looks as though they will finally all run out onto the field together.
With Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow expected to return, an already decent Lions offensive line is set to improve. They allow only the sixth-fewest sacks per game and rank 10th in rushing yards per carry. As Jackson said, “The band’s back together. It’s time to put on a show.”
David Montgomery’s anticipated return would add another strong act to the show as the Lions look to solidify themselves as Super Bowl LVIII contenders.
The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, are dealing with a few injuries themselves. Austin Ekeler is back but they’re down in troops in the receiving corps. Detroit’s defence poses a much tougher threat than in recent weeks as well. While only conceding 9.5 points per game in their last two, those efforts have come against the Bears and Jets – neither are particularly potent.
With a healthy offensive line and proven scoring capability even with it banged up, the Lions should have far too many points in them here.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens aren’t flying under our radar as one of the best teams in the NFL…
“Baltimore is doing it on both sides of the ball. In Week 9 they kept the Seattle Seahawks to just one drive of over 50 yards. Eight Seahawks drives failed to crack 11 yards. That is the difference between them and some of the other teams flirting with the likes of Kansas City and Philadelphia.” – Week 9 NFL Review
Lamar Jackson’s $5.50 to win Most Valuable Player won’t be around long if he keeps this form up. It won’t be long before the Ravens are mentioned alongside the Chiefs and Eagles as Super Bowl LVIII contenders either. Still, they come up against the best defence in the league this week.
The Cleveland Browns leave a lot to be desired with the ball. If he starts to find his groove Deshaun Watson can give their passing attack a boost. Regardless, they’re winning games through their defence.
Baltimore are deserving favourites and it would be a surprise to see them lose straight up. But this is a big number for a divisional game and a big number for the two best defences in the NFL. Home teams in divisional games have covered at only 45% since 2015. The Browns should be able to follow the trend and at least keep this one close.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings
It’s not the greatest number at 40.5 but the Under appeals in this one.
Simply put, we’re fading new Minnesota Vikings quarterback, Josh Dobbs.
He’s a competent quarterback. At the very least, he’s very smart and adaptable. However, the New Orleans Saints are more than likely to give him a much tougher time of it this week. He won’t be able to freely roll to his right to find receivers. New Orleans ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in total defence and passing defence.
Minnesota should cause their own problems on the defensive end, too.
One of the most important stats to know for Saints-Vikings is blitz rate:
– 1. Vikings: 51.3%
– 2. Giants: 43.1%
– 3. Steelers: 38%
– 23. Saints: 23.4%
How the Saints handle extra rushers will probably be the biggest offensive key in this game.
— Jeff Nowak (@Jeff_Nowak) November 9, 2023
The Vikings are a blitz-heavy defence. It’s down to their lack of talent more than anything, but we can rely on Derek Carr being put under regular pressure behind centre.
Neither offence inspires a lot of point-scoring confidence leading us to a low-scoring affair in this one.