The NFL season is coming to an end with Super Bowl LIX, and we’ve got five of the best bets for the big dance.
The Boring Bet
Nobody wants the game to finish Under the 48.5 Points Total, but it’s the way we’re looking in Super Bowl LIX.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are two of the most methodical offensive teams in the NFL.
The Chiefs don’t play with the explosiveness they have done in past years. Still, Andy Reid has is a wizard in what he draws up on the offensive end, and with Patrick Mahomes always able to find the right pass at the right time, Kansas City is 2nd in the NFL in third-down success rate. They’re particularly good at shutting up shop when playing from in front, too.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles lead the league in time in possession. Their run-heavy offence leads to a running clock and fewer possessions overall.
One of the ways to beat Mahomes is to simply keep him off the field. Eagles lead the NFL in average time of possession.
Beat that defense into the ground. pic.twitter.com/5OCskr8t5y
— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) January 31, 2025
Saquon Barkley is an unstoppable force at the moment, but Steve Spagnuolo will have a few adjustments for him. After halftime, in particular. It’s what leads us towards the second-half under at $1.88.
A close game leads the game script towards shorter throws and the running game. Give Kansas City a lead late, and Mahomes will milk the clock for all it’s worth.
More broadly, both defenses are in the Top 10 in red-zone touchdown rate allowed while ranking outside the Top 10 in the same metric offensively. They match-up well for a slog-fest with both teams capable of spending long periods of time in possession throughout the game.
Bet Now 2nd Half Total Points - Under 24.5 @ $1.88Kicking Butker
With the two teams ranking so well in red-zone touchdown defence, we can anticipate Harrison Butker being sent out onto the field at semi-regular intervals.
Already against a strong red-zone defence, the Chiefs were 22nd in red-zone offence throughout the NFL season. They aren’t particularly aggressive on fourth down either. Reid kept his offence on the field only 17 times on fourth down during the season – 26th in the NFL.
Butker has an unblemished record in the playoffs over the last two postseasons, knocking over all 15 of his field goal attempts.
Harrison Butker has never missed a field goal in the fourth quarter of a postseason game 💪 pic.twitter.com/Wy4zj7J2Q0
— Farzin Vousoughian (@Farzin21) February 1, 2025
With Butker’s line set at 7.5, we’re looking for two field goals with a couple of extra points to send us Over. The Eagles have allowed two or more field-goal attempts in all three playoff games this season. Another two in this one will all but secure the Over in Super Bowl LIX.
Bet Now Harrison Butker Total Kicking Points - Over 7.5 @ $1.71Smith To Sack Mahomes
Nolan Smith is a beast.
He didn’t set the world on fire throughout his rookie season but has made a name for himself more recently.
Smith has a team-high 23 pressures to lead the Eagles since Week 15. It’s translated into a sack in each of their three playoff games this season, and he’s set to make history should he earn another in Super Bowl LIX.
WILD: #Eagles 2nd year pass rusher Nolan Smith is one sack away from having the MOST SACKS in Philly team playoff history.
🤯
Crazy. Smith is only 24 years old and playing in his second season. Another fantastic pick by Howie Roseman. pic.twitter.com/EiROvQu3eD
— MLFootball (@MLFootball) February 3, 2025
Smith is likely to be up against Chiefs right tackle, Jawaan Taylor. Taylor is nursing a knee injury, so even if he is available to start, he will come in underdone. He’s already allowed a team-high 41 pressures with Smith in a prime position to add another couple to the tally in this one.
Bet Now Player To Record A Sack - Nolan Smith @ $2Go Dallas
We’ve already highlighted Dallas Goedert as a prime target for Hurts in the air.
“The Chiefs give up the most yards to opposition tight ends in the NFL already. With Barkley such a threat to start with Brown then able to get himself into one-on-one matchups, there’s a chance Goedert becomes somewhat of an afterthought.” – Super Bowl LIX Preview
With his total yards line set at 50.5 yards, he can clear over half of it with one big reception.
The Chiefs give up the most yards to tight ends in the NFL. Should the Eagles trail late and force the ball in the air, that further plays into Goedert being targeted.
While Barkley is the centerpiece of the offence, Goedert is a prime target. In the six games Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all played together this season, Goedert has the second-highest target rate behind Brown. More specifically, he’s a target when Hurts is under pressure.
“We Want The Big One”
🔥Eagles TE Dallas Goedert says he will do whatever ever it takes to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl
“I’ll do whatever it takes to make sure we don’t go home, will be physical, punishing defenders”https://t.co/Zt5wrSd8jh pic.twitter.com/qd3YgqRM0v
— Jeff Skversky (@JeffSkversky) January 31, 2025
Goedert plays down hill. He immediately looks downfield and uses his physicality to extend the play. His 188 yards in the playoffs is the most in the team. So too are his 128 yards after the catch and four receptions of 15+ yards.
We’re looking for one big, destructive carry in Super Bowl LIX.
Bet Now Player To Record a 30+ yard reception - Dallas Goedert @ $5Super Bowl LIX Winner
“Little has changed in the Super Bowl LIX markets since our last look. The Chiefs remain as -1.5 favourites to win their third Vince Lombardi Trophy on the bounce. Meanwhile, the Eagles are $1.97 outsiders to avenge their Super Bowl LVIIdefeat when the Chiefs won their first.” – Super Bowl LIX Preview
As we inch closer to kickoff of Super Bowl LIX the markets are holding steady with the Chiefs as favourites only days out.
All of the numbers point towards the Eagles pre-game. Philly is the better team in expected points added in passing offence, rushing offence, passing defence and rushing defence. Barkley, in particular, is 148 rushing yards away from surpassing Terrell Davis as the NFL’s single-season rushing yards leader.
But, Mahomes is a different beast at this time of the year.
🚨🚨INSANE STAT🚨🚨#Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is more likely to make the Super Bowl (71.4%) than he is to complete an actual pass in a #NFL game (66.6%).
🤯🤯🤯
MAHOMES IS OTHERWORLDLY.
(Via @WTFstats) pic.twitter.com/2vho3zbQmD
— MLFootball (@MLFootball) February 5, 2025
He’s 16-2 straight up in January and February in home or neutral-site games. He’s 8-0 straight up and against the underdog when listed as an underdog of favourite of less than a field goal. Give him extended rest of 8+ days, and Mahomes is 30-4 straight up since 2019.
Quarterback play is so often the defining factor in the NFL. Add Reid’s genius and the greatest defensive coordinator in Spagnuolo, the the Chiefs look unstoppable. They’ve been here and done it all before. So many doubted them in the last Super Bowl. Not again.
Bet Now Kansas City Chiefs to Win Super Bowl LIX @ $1.83