An exciting 2025 NFL season kicks into Week 7, and we’re diving into five of the best bets from around the league.
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Sure, it’s the New Orleans Saints, but who is this Chicago Bears team to be a -5.5 favourite against any team in the NFL right now?
Their underlying metrics are relatively poor and they don’t hold up to the eye test, either.
They’ve been heavily reliant on their defence forcing turnovers to lead the NFL – alongside the Jaguars – with a +8 turnover differential. Their 21.4% turnover rate his historically unsustainable. Despite the turnovers, the Bears defence ranks dead last in yards allowed per play and comes up against a Saints offence that has generated 628 total yards in its last two games.
While Spencer Rattler might not be an elite quarterback in this league, he’s proven to be safe with only one interception this season.With the Bears ranked 24th in defensive red zone touchdown rate, Rattler doesn’t need to be throwing darts if the Saints can move the ball well enough, often enough, up field.
The Bears look overvalued right now, and won’t be for long once the turnovers dry up. It’s not easy getting on a lowly Saints team, but it’s the right side to be on in this one.
Bet Now Saints + 5.5 @ $1.90New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos did us dirty last week, but the numbers point towards them as favourites again in Week 7.
They’re playing with the best pass rush in the league (46.3% pressure rate, 13.7% sack rate) and go up against a rookie quarterback in Jaxson Dart here.
Most sacks this season:
30 – Broncos
29 –
28 –
27 –
26 –
25 –
24 –
23 –
22 –
21 –
20 – Steelers, SeahawksDenver is on pace to break the 1984 Bears' single-season NFL sack record (72). pic.twitter.com/ODKvBZw1zP
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 14, 2025
While the New York Giants ended the Russell Wilson experiment early, it’s worth remembering why they attempted it in the first place: Dart isn’t ready for the weekly grind of NFL football. He might put together one good game here and there, but he will struggle for consistency and find it particularly difficult against defenses putting him under pressure. New York relies heavily on Dart to make plays for the offence to function, and the Broncos defence is designed to make that a challenge.
Bo Nix isn’t going to set the world on fire for the Broncos. If anything, he’s regressed this season. Still, the Denver defence can keep a lid on an already poor Giants offence. Enough to win by more than a touchdown at home.
Bet Now Broncos -6.5 @ $1.80New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Just as we look to fade Jaxson Dart at the Giants, we’re buying into Drake Maye…
It takes some convincing, but the numbers do it.
The New England Patriots rank 2nd in passing EPA thanks to Maye putting together performances like he did last week; 18-26 passing, 261 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has a chance against a Tennessee Titans defence allowing a 58.7% completion rate on throws of 10+ yards downfield (31st), matching one of Maye’s greatest strengths. He’s shown a consistent ability to make tough throws and handle pressure which is bad news for the Titans.
Tennessee responded to yet another poor start to an NFL season by firing coach Brian Callahan. As much as the “new coach bounce” might appeal to some, a team deep into a rebuild and dealing with the sort of turmoil this group is right now isn’t bouncing very high.
Unless they can fix the offensive line in a week and find a way to keep Maye under control, the Titans aren’t keeping this one close. They’re 0-10 against the spread in their last ten home games and have a lot of work to do before being competitive.
Bet Now Patriots -7.5 @ $1.98Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
As a preseason believer in the Las Vegas Raiders, they’ve not played up to expectations. Adults in the room should have triggered more of an improvement to start the NFL season. Instead, they’re 2-4 and massive underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7.
This is a spot where underdogs typically cover, though.
Patrick Mahomes, as good as he is, has covered only 13 of 38 games as a favourite of 7.5+ points since 2020. Since the start of 2022, he’s only covered against AFC West Rivals in four of 17 games. These games are usualy closer than people expect when rivals go head-to-head.
The Raiders offence is struggling…
Despite the win, #Raiders Geno Smith averaged 2.9 air yards per pass, the second lowest mark by any QB in a game this season (Jordan Love 1.2 vs Browns in Week 3).
Smith averaged 8 air yards per attempt in the previous five games.
— Ryan McFadden (@ryanmcfadden_) October 12, 2025
Chip Kelly must be on his last legs as a play-caller and takes on an efficient Chiefs defence ranking 5th in pressure rate. Still, this is a big line, and history suggests Mahomes and the Chiefs will be happy to grind out a win despite the significant favoritism.
Bet Now Raiders +11.5 @ $1.92Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings
The Philadelphia Eagles are defending Super Bowl champions and have started the NFL season with four wins across the opening six weeks. However, like last season, they’ve not looked that good while doing it.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings come into this one on extended rest. They have several key players returning from injury, too.
With players coming back and Philly dealing with an injury bug, we’re looking for the Vikings defence to be the difference. They’re 2nd in the NFL in defensive EPL per play, 9th in overal defensive DVOA, 6th in passing DVOA and 5th in points allowed. This is a defensive force in front of an Eagles offence ranking 17th in offensive DVOA and 22nd in DVOA per play.
Saquon Barkley produced an all-time great rushing season to dig them out of these holes previously, but isn’t playing at the same level right now. It’s a good opportunity to sell relatively high on the Eagles and be one of the few to back Carson Wentz (who does have a 99.5 passer rating right now) and the Vikings defence.
Bet Now Vikings +2.5 @ $1.85