Week 18 of the NFL season is complete, so we’re casting an eye over every game, identifying the big takeaways and digging into the markets.
Around The NFL
The Baltimore Ravens clinched the AFC North once again with a 35-10 win over the Cleveland Browns. They started as massive favourites and never looked like leaving with anything other than a win in this one.
While the Cincinnati Bengals did their job to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 19-17 in Week 18, their slow start to the NFL season ultimately cost them a spot in the playoffs. In contrast, the Carolina Panthers capped off a promising finish to the season with a 44-38 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Both Bryce Young and Michael Penix offered hope for the future of their respective franchises.
C.J. Stroud got through his work early for the Houston Texans to end their two-game losing streak, beating a hapless Tennessee Titans 23-14.
The Tennessee Titans are on the clock with the #1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout.bsky.social) 2025-01-05T21:04:04.622Z
The Philadelphia Eagles rested key players, but that didn’t matter. In his first start as quarterback, Tanner McKee led them to a 20-13 win over the New York Giants, finishing with 269 yards and two touchdowns.
A horror Jacksonville Jaguars season is over and ended with yet another defeat, this time to the Indianapolis Colts 26-23. Similarly, the Dallas Cowboys will welcome the end of Week 18 and a disappointing season. They couldn’t get past a Washington Commanders team who sent Jayden Daniels to the bench at halftime as Marcus Mariota secured the 23-19 victory.
The Chicago Bears ended their 10-game losing streak to beat the Green Bay Packers 24-22. Having found so many ways to lose throughout the year, Caleb Williams led a game-winning drive in this one.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been quiet achievers all season and finished with a 27-19 win over the New Orleans Saints, clinching their fourth straight NFC title. They did need to come back from 16-6 behind, though.
It is incredibly risky and has the potential for ridicule, but this celebration is part of the reason you do it.
Bucs will be better for the throw as a team next week. https://t.co/ZOqqpvnbfO
— Jason (@SportsJO13) January 6, 2025
Joe Milton made his NFL debut to lead the New England Patriots to a 23-18 win over a resting Buffalo Bills. The win wasn’t enough to save Jerod Mayo who was removed as head coach less than two hours after the game.
The Los Angeles Chargers heaped more misery onto the Las Vegas Raiders to win 34-20. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals thrashed the San Francisco 49ers 47-24.
In a wild result, the Denver Broncos hammered the Kansas City Chiefs 38-0. While the Chiefs rested players, the expectation was for them to offer something ahead of the playoffs.
The rookie is headed to the #NFLPlayoffs!
Bo Nix made sure to show @Broncos fans ALL the love after the game 🧡💙 pic.twitter.com/qtEfZq3bOA
— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2025
Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks finished their NFL season on a high to beat the Los Angeles Rams 30-25. Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets did the same to beat the Miami Dolphins 32-20.
Finally, the Detroit Lions claimed the NFC North with a 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Jahmyr Gibbs ended up as the standout to finish with four touchdowns and 170 all-purpose yards in a monster game.
3 Takeaways From Week 18
Pats Fire Mayo
That’s all she wrote for Jerod Mayo’s time at the New England Patriots.
A franchise once known for it’s consistency and stability is onto it’s third coach in as many seasons. Ownership’s hand-picked replacement for Bill Belichick has been a disaster, and it couldn’t have got much worse in Week 18.
By winning their game, New England ended as the biggest losers to lose the No.1 pick in the NFL Draft. Mayo was fired quickly after the game with reports already circulating that Mike Vrabel is the early favourite to replace him. Vrabel shined for Belichick at linebacker for the Patriots from 2001 to 2008 and will be at the top of the wish list in the coming weeks.
Stephen A. Smith on the Patriots firing Jerod Mayo: "This is about Mike Vrabel. That's who they wanted… I don't like this. They call it Black Monday for a reason. This certainly typifies it. I don't know why it's not called White Monday. Doug Pederson got fired from… pic.twitter.com/PsZFD7CrWR
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) January 6, 2025
While the Patriots may have fired Mayo with an eye on Vrabel, the now-fired head coach didn’t do himself any favours from the start.
“The New England Patriots aren’t going to be good this season. Nobody expects them to be. Not even themselves. Coach Jerod Mayo conceded as much when mentioning that rookie Drake Maye outplayed Jacoby Brissett in the preseason, but it’s the more experienced Brissett who will start the NFL season at quarterback. The Patriots are putting their future ahead of winning in 2024.” – AFC Season Preview
Mayo, and potentially Vrabel at this rate, is another case of a franchise not doing their due diligence before signing a coach. We saw the Las Vegas Raiders do it with Antonio Pierce last season, too.
It all ends another poor season for the Patriots. The gloss of the Belichick/Brady Era is wearing off. Will the Drake Maye Era begin in the next?
Hill Is Done In Miami
The Miami Dolphins are done for this NFL season, and Tyreek Hill is done with the Miami Dolphins.
“This is my first time I haven’t been in the playoffs,” Hill told reporters. “I just gotta do what’s best for me and my family. If that’s here or wherever the case may be, I’m finna open that door for myself. I’m opening the door. I’m out, bro.
It was great playing here, but at the end of the day, bro, I got to do what’s best for my career. I’m too much of a competitor to be just out there.
Just see what I need to do to continue to do to get better as a player. So I can continue to reach that 1,000-yard mark. It is what it is.”
Hill finished with only 959 yards this season. It’s the first time he’s not cleared 1,000 yards since playing just 12 games in 2019. It’s only the third time in the 30-year-old’s nine-year NFL career that he’s not cracked 1,000 yards.
For the Dolphins, their 32-20 loss to the New York Jets is a disappointing end to a disappointing season. One that always felt like they thought they’d proven more than they really had.
Mike McDaniel still has a lot to prove as an NFL coach. Tua Tagovailoa is definitely a big part of this team, but is he the quarterback of one that can contend for the Super Bowl? Will they ever start consistently beating good teams, or winning games in colder climates?
We started this season asking the Dolphins to prove themselves before putting them among the top teams in the league, and will be starting the next season in the same way.
Lions Look The Goods
The Detroit Lions won’t face many tougher defences than they did in Week 18. Still, they dispatched of the Minnesota Vikings in a big spot 31-9 to secure the No.1 seed and give this injury-riddled defence an extra week to rest and recover.
Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs make the headlines for the Lions on the offensive end. Goff found 231 yards connecting on 27 of his 33 attempts while Gibbs produced four touchdowns and 170 all-purpose yards. However, it’s Aaron Glenn and the defence that offers the most encouragement to Detroit’s $4 to win Super Bowl LIX.
The Lions defense played man coverage on 66.7% of dropbacks, the 2nd-highest rate by a defense in a game this season.
Darnold finished 10 of 28 for 125 yards against man (-20.1% CPOE), while completing only 1 of 9 attempts on dropbacks over four seconds.
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/HzVwfqDsXu
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 6, 2025
The defensive coordinator put himself in the head coach spotlight with another excellent defensive display, causing Sam Darnold havoc all night.
While the Lions defence is decimated by injury, Glenn has the smarts to make up for it. The questions around that side of the ball and it’s impact on Super Bowl contention appear to have been answered.
NFL Odds & Futures
The Detroit Lions end the NFL regular season as $4 favourites to win Super Bowl LIX. They continue to exceed expectations despite the injuries they consistently face. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings face a much tougher path to the big dance and have drifted out to $15 following the defeat.
You have to consider the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the joy and confidence they are playing with right now. They’re an exciting, albeit unlikely, option at $21. More likely, the Philadelphia Eagles ($7) defence continued to improve and they make a run alongside the Baltimore Ravens ($6.50) who are getting better every week.
| Team | Current Price | Last Week’s Price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | $4.00 | $5.50 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | $4.50 | $4.50 |
| Buffalo Bills | $6.50 | $5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | $6.50 | $8.50 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | $7.00 | $5.50 |
| Minnesota Vikings | $15.00 | $13.00 |
| Green Bay Packers | $21.00 | $13.00 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $21.00 | $- |
| Los Angeles Rams | $31.00 | $26.00 |
| Washington Commanders | $36.00 | $- |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | $76.00 | $26.00 |
| Denver Broncos | $76.00 | $- |
| Houston Texans | $91.00 | $26.00 |