The NFL season is into the Wild Card Round. Take your pick on the headline act, there are a number of mouthwatering matchups to open the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
The Jacksonville Jaguars flop ended up the Houston Texans gain and the AFC South title. Led by rookie sensation C.J. Stroud, the Texans are capable of anything in the playoffs.
There have been inconsistent and inexperienced moments throughout the NFL season. However, when Stroud is letting go of the ball early or in possession late in a close game, Houston looks capable of beating any team that remains.
He did this last week…
CJ Stroud’s first primetime pass? 75 Yard TD to Nico Collins 🤯
pic.twitter.com/V7GJRUrjqT— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 7, 2024
And with the game on the line late, completed all seven of his passes for 82 yards and a 23-19 win.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has propelled the Cleveland Browns into the playoffs where they are $1.65 and -2.5 favourites to advance past the Wild Card Round. Always a good defensive team, Flacco’s addition has reignited the offence to be 4-1 in his starts.
The home and away form is key in this game. Houston is a much better team at home than on the road, while Cleveland’s defensive numbers are propped up by the 13.9 points conceded per game at home. With the Browns allowing 29.4 points per game on the road, Stroud and the Texans should find enough success to threaten an upset.
Bet Now Browns (-2.5) @ TexansMiami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
We didn’t expect this in the Wild Card Round.
The Miami Dolphins started the NFL season at a historical pace. Their offence looked like one of the best in league history and few teams seemed capable of stopping it. Now they’re $2.65 and +4.5 underdogs on the road in the Wild Card round, and what should have been a successful season is worryingly close to ending in disappointment.
A look inside the emotion in Dolphins locker room last night after a rough offensive day costs them an AFC East title.
And the quick shift to playing the Chiefs Saturday night still with belief especially as 2 of their top offensive players near a return.
My @nflnetwork report: pic.twitter.com/O9vwXE4mfu
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) January 8, 2024
Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl champions haven’t ever looked like defending Super Bowl champions this season. The offence is the worst Kansas City Chiefs offence in the Patrick Mahomes era. For all of the “they have Mahones” optimism that proceeds every big game, he’s only been able to do so much with the weapons – or lack thereof – around him. Mahomes is putting up career-worsts in passing yards per game, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, and picks.
Still, this is expected to be a close game with the Chiefs only -4.5 favourites. In a rather un-Chiefs-like fashion, their defence has kept them afloat. It should be able to do enough here against an injury-impacted Dolphins offence for Mahomes to lead the Chiefs to victory.
Bet Now Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
Give the Buffalo Bills an inch with the ball, and they’ll take it to the end zone.
It hasn’t always been like that for the Bills this season but a remarkable turnaround has translated into an AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the conference. At 6-6 heading into Week 13, it looked as though the Bills could miss the playoffs entirely. Now, they’re heavy $1.18 and -9.5 favourites to win this one and are on the third line of betting to win Super Bowl LVIII at $7.
T.J. Watt is a massive out for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s a big reason behind the big +9.5 line. Still, there are two ways you could look at the Bills.
They have effectively been playing playoff football for five weeks. Does that set them up well here to continue their run, or could they be running out of puff heading into the most important point of the season?
Over his last two games, Najee Harris has rushed for 189 yards AFTER CONTACT and forced 16 missed tackles, per PFF.
Steelers will need that tough running against the Bills in a potential bad-weather game.
— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) January 9, 2024
Playing at home is a big boost for Buffalo. They’re 7-1 at Highmark Stadium this season and have outscored their opponents by an average of 14.8 points. They’re still getting better, too. Josh Allen hasn’t been particularly careful with the ball. If he can strike the right balance between his superhero plays and the easy ones, the Bills should be far too good here and can start to dream of what was once an unlikely run at the Super Bowl.
Bet Now Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5)Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy is at the centre of this one.
He’s going up against his former team, but if the Green Bay Packers upset him as $3.90 and +7.5 underdogs here, this might be his last game with the Dallas Cowboys.
McCarthy and the Cowboys ($1.26) should get through the Wild Card Round relatively unscathed. They have looked like the best team in the conference at times this season. At home, in particular.
The Cowboys are scoring 37.4 points and conceding only 15.9 points per game at home this season. Taking advantage of it in this one is huge. On the road, they’re a middling NFL team scoring 23.3 and conceding 20.9 points per game.
Dallas will present as a hostile environment for the Green Bay Packers, the youngest playoff team since the league went to a 16-game schedule way back in 1978.
Jordan Love has been superb over the second half of the NFL season. He has performed well against the better teams in the league, too.
Highest QB @PFF grade against playoff teams this season:
Josh Allen 94.5
Lamar Jackson 90.7
Jordan Love 90.0— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) January 8, 2024
However, he’s up against one of the few quarterbacks above him on the list here. Dak Prescott. He dominates at AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys have failed to crack 30 points just once. While the Packers have done well to get here and anything is possible with Love behind centre, their 27th-ranked defensive DVOA is where they’re likely to fall short against Prescott and the Cowboys.
Bet Now Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
Strap yourselves in for this one.
There isn’t a point total high enough that wouldn’t lead people to at least consider the Over. Set at 51.5 ($1.90) at the time of writing, it could still rise higher as punters start to get excited about the potential for points ahead of kickoff.
The storyline is all about the Detroit Lions ($1.58/-3.5) and the end of a long home playoff drought. Fittingly, erstwhile Lion Matthew Stafford is in town with the LA Rams – Jared Goff’s former team.
Crazy that Stafford could be the one to spoil the Lions first home playoff game in 30 years. You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain. 🍿 pic.twitter.com/QkIax83d1e
— HoldenCantor (@HoldenCantor) January 8, 2024
These two high-powered offences have the potential to play the best game of the Wild Card Round, if not the NFL playoffs overall.
Goff is a wizard indoors and plays with Amon-Ra St.Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs with a roof over his head in this one. Sam LaPorta has been a revelation this season but is under an injury cloud. Meanwhile, Stafford can still sling it with the best of them and has Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to find in the backfield.
The Lions are deserving favourites, but as we’ve mentioned here a few times for profit throughout the year, they’re not quite as good as the hype machine can sometimes claim. Goff has a stinker in him and the Rams are well-placed to capitalise with the ball if he’s off in this one.
Bet Now Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stick a fork in the Philadelphia Eagles – they’re done as Super Bowl LVIII contenders.
They might sneak past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as $1.60 and -2.5 favourites here. They should, really. However, Nick Sirianni has struggled for answers over the last two months. He didn’t recognise the favourable fortune throughout the 10-1 start to the season and has been bitten by five losses in six games.
He might not have Jalen Hurts or A.J. Brown for this one either…
AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts both suffered injuries in Week 18 for the Eagles. pic.twitter.com/kK9xQiAuSw
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) January 7, 2024
Tampa Bay has taken the opposite approach to their NFL season. Slow to start before finding form, they’ve won five of their last six games to win the NFC South and appeal as +2.5 underdogs in this one. It’s an incredible achievement for a team most thought would only win a handful of games and for a quarterback who is somewhat lucky not to have been pushed out of the league. Instead, Baker Mayfield is featuring in the postseason and just cashed a $1,000,000 cheque for taking the Buccaneers this far.
Mayfield limped off the field last week. Like the Eagles, the Buccaneers are dealing with injuries. Still, they’ve performed better of late and are arguably under no pressure here. It’s all on the Eagles who can’t seem to play themselves out of this slump.
Although it may not be the most thrilling matchup on paper, this game has the potential to deliver an exciting upset.
Bet Now Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers