Week 17 of the NFL season is complete, so we’re casting an eye over every game, identifying the big takeaways and digging into the markets.
Around The NFL
Christmas Day in the NFL didn’t bring too much surprise in the end.
The Dallas Cowboys did as they should to beat the Washington Commanders 30-23. Although, the Commanders defence did force the Cowboys into six fourth-down conversions – tied for the most in a game since 1991.
While the Detroit Lions losing to the Minnesota Vikings may have come as a surprise to some, it isn’t around here. Lions, big spot, fade – it’s been profitable for a little while now. In a must-win game Detroit did everything they could to end their season early. A Kansas City Chiefs loss in December would usually raise a few eyebrows, but without Patrick Mahomes, little is expected and the Denver Broncos made the most of the opportunity to win 20-13.
The Houston Texan’s used two early bombs to build a lead over the Los Angeles Chargers before holding on to win 20-16.
Only seven teams in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 👀
The Texans have now done it TWICE (2018, 2025) since becoming a franchise in 2002 😲 pic.twitter.com/QDzGevHC9O
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) December 28, 2025
Tyler Huntly, filling in for Lamar Jackson, and the Baltimore Ravens made sure the Steelers will need to earn their spot in the playoffs by beating the Green Bay Packers 41-24. Huntly wasn’t asked to do everything Jackson would have in this one. Instead, Derrick Henry put up his seventh career game with 3+ rushing touchdowns and 100+ rushing yards to lead the way. If it wasn’t locked in all ready, Henry is a Hall of Famer.
The Seattle Seahawks again justified their place on the second line of betting in the Super Bowl LX market at $6.50 with a defence-first 27-10 win over the Carolina Panthers. Carolina didn’t generate a play of more than 11 yards all game…
Joe Burrow isn’t the sort to check out early despite the Cincinnati Bengals being out of playoff contention. Instead, he backed up a 45-point showing last week with another 37 more to beat the Arizona Cardinals. There were no such scoring outputs as the Cleveland Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 13-6 later in the day.
The Jacksonville Jaguars can’t be ignored as Super Bowl LX contenders at $12 following their 23-17 win over the Indianapolis Colts. While a win over the Colts isn’t particularly noteworthy right now, the Jaguars of all teams doing it, is. We’ve seen Jacksonville play out strong periods of a season in the past before losing their way. They’ve now won 12 games to be among the most in-form teams in the NFL as the playoffs approach.
What a weird season for the #Jaguars.
The QB leads the team in rushing TDs, while the RB leads the team in receiving TDs. pic.twitter.com/bixJ0tvwpX
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) December 29, 2025
What has happened to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers season? There was a moment, albeit brief, when it looks like they might be able to do something in the playoffs. They won’t even be there following an ugly 20-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins.
The New England Patriots put their depth to the test, passing with flying colours to thrash the hapless New York Jets 42-10. With the 35-3 lead at the break, the second half was time for friends and family within both fan bases.
While coming into Week 17 with only eight wins between them, the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans put on a show. It took a moment for the Saints offence to click into gear, but Tyler Slouch got them the win in the end to finish with a season-high 333 yards and two touchdowns.
A 10th-straight loss has the Las Vegas Raiders in the box seat for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. The 3-13 New York Giants did it easy in the 34-10 victory.
We didn’t learn too much from the Philadelphia Eagles’ 13-12 win over the Buffalo Bills that we already didn’t know. Philly still struggles to play out a full game after gaining only 16 yards in the second half. Meanwhile, when Josh Allen isn’t firing – clearly dealing with a foot injury – the Bills look lost at every level.
You knew when Brock Purdy threw a pick-six on the first possession of the game that San Francisco 49ers v Chicago Bears was going to be a banger.
First time in NFL history a regular season game has been tied at each of:
7-7
14-14
21-21
28-28
35-35😱😱😱 pic.twitter.com/ZqEZYBTSr9
— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2025
In the end, the 49ers finished on top 42-38, but the Bears’ reputation didn’t take a hit. Ben Johnson might be the best coaching acquisition since the 49ers picked up Kyle Shanahan, and these two look set to be among the top teams in the NFL heading into these playoffs, and many more to come in the near future.
To finish Week 17, the Atlanta Falcons won their third game on the bounce to beat the LA Rams 27-24. Bijan Robinson continued his period of domination with 195 yards while Matthew Stafford helps make it easy on the Falcons with three interceptions.
3 Takeaways From Week 17
Purdy Stands Out
It wasn’t too long ago that the Twittersphere put forward the idea of Mac Jones keeping the San Francisco 49ers starting quarterback job ahead of Brock Purdy.
Brock Purdy, after going an absurd 8-of-11 on 3rd and 4th downs (and 5-5 in the red zone), continues to stand light years ahead of the NFL QB field: pic.twitter.com/UJnc5Hk4ya
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) December 29, 2025
He’s since recorded 20 passing touchdowns and 23 total touchdowns – the most by any quarterback with eight-or-fewer starts since quarterback starts were first tracked in 1950.
Purdy is one of the best in the NFL despite the reluctance from some to divorce their early-career opinions of him.
As a result, the 49ers are suddenly 12-4 and $9 to win the Super Bowl. They’re without key players which lowers their ceiling overall. However, with Purdy playing like this alongside an always-excellent Christian McCaffrey, their ceiling still can raise to a contending level.
They’ve won six on the bounce and have a chance at the conference’s number one spot when taking on the Seahawks in Week 18 as $1.96 outsiders.
Perfect Pats, MVP Maye
The New England Patriots are back at the top of the AFC East, crowned champions for the first time since 2019. They got there on the back of a perfect 8-0 record on the road and led by a potential MVP in Drake Maye.
In fact, Maye is the value pick for Most Valuable Player at $3 ahead of Matthew Stafford ($1.36) right now.
Maye leads the NFL in Total EPA, Total QBR, Passer Rating, Completion Rate and CPOE. He just recorded a 99.8 QBR against the Jets in Week 17 – the highest QBR recorded in NFL history.
Stafford has some narrative benefits, but Maye’s can’t be understated. Only two teams have gone from a 13-loss season to a 13-win season with Maye completing the feat here. At only 23-years-old, some voters might see that as a way to pass on him as MVP given ‘he will won one eventually.’ However, his age is also what makes all of this so impressive.
Drake Maye is the only QB this season to complete 90% of his passes on at least 15 attempts, and he's done it twice
📷: @NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/gAIPHSUd8q
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 29, 2025
Maye is the rightful MVP, and $3 is a gift if the voters do their job.
No Record For Garrett
He could still technically finish with the NFL single-season sack record, but Myles Garrett won’t be able to avoid the asterisk. He’s doing it in the new 17-game format which makes it difficult to make direct comparisons to the 16-game era. In particular, Michael Strahan’s 22.5 sacks.
The NFL officially recognises all records under the new format, but the court of public opinion will judge differently.
Garrett is one take down away from the record and the Steelers knew it in Week 17. They looked more focused on keeping Garrett away from Aaron Rodgers than playing any sort of competent defence. They applied extra attention to the pass rusher, forcing him through multiple blockers in pursuit of Rodgers all day.
He has one more crack at the record in Week 18 when the Browns take on the Bengals as +7.5 underdogs.
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