Week 16 of the NFL season is complete, so we’re casting an eye over every game, identifying the big takeaways and digging into the markets.
Around The NFL
The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks played out a Thursday Night Football thriller to kickoff Week 16 of the NFL season. It took a monumental Rams collapse, but the Seahawks took command of the NFC in overtime.
We’ve been waiting for the Philadelphia Eagles to display their Super Bowl-contending form, and while they faced a poor Washington Commanders side, they looked much better in the 29-18 win. Saquon Barkley, in particular, played more like the 2024 version for 132 yards and a touchdown.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers played out a classic divisional rock fight with the Panthers ending up on top 23-20. The Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns played out the same result with the Bills escaping with the win to move to 11-4 and remain a chance of winning the divisional title.
AFC East Winner: Patriots – $1.12, Bills – $5
While Dak Prescott and George Pickens kept the Dallas Cowboys in it throughout the first half, the Los Angeles Chargers showed their muscle to win 34-17. The Chargers defence found their game after the break to stop the Cowboys and secure the win.
You’d think when you’re 3-11 and have a four-win team to play, you’d see some fight…
The Jets will finish the season ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring, and the bottom 10 in yards, for the 10th year in a row. Seems impossible to do that in this modern era but there you have it.
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 21, 2025
Not with the New York Jets. The New Orleans Saints did it easy to win 29-6 with Tyler Shough helping to generate a third straight win. Shough delivered an efficient 308 yards and a touchdown by completing 32 of his 49 attempts. He’s striking up a strong partnership with Chris Olave who is playing out a career-best season through Week 16.
It wasn’t pretty, but the Minnesota Vikings managed to grind out a 16-13 win over the New York Giants. J.J. McCarthy didn’t escape without injury, though. Forced out of this game, his long-term durability is still under question.
Gardner Minshew couldn’t fill the cleats of Patrick Mahomes following his season-ending injury last week as the Kansas City Chiefs fell to the lowly Tennessee Titans 26-9.
Today felt like a standard Cam Ward day for his future.
He’ll have incredible games, but games like today will be his stock standard good game.
So under control, so precise with his decisions. pic.twitter.com/PDNC9fNiOo
— TicTacTitans (@TicTacTitans) December 21, 2025
Joe Burrow won’t go down without a fight despite the Cincinnati Bengals being out of playoff contention. He outplayed rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers, who started ahead of Tua Tagovailla, for Cincy to beat the Miami Dolphins 45-21.
It will have held little interest to anybody outside of Atlanta and Arizona, but the Falcons earned a 26-19 win over the Cardinals.
“Holding the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff picture before and after Week 15, the Jaguars are controlling their own destiny. They’ll have to prove their worth in a playoff-like Week 16 matchup against the Denver Broncos.” – Lawrence’s Day Out
Prove their worth the Jacksonville Jaguars did…
Trevor Lawrence continued his incredible run of form to lead the Jaguars to a 34-20 win over the highly-fancied Denver Broncos.
Trevor Lawrence since Week 13 (and counting):
1,050 passing yards
14 total TDs
0 INTs pic.twitter.com/WK82iTXDEX— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) December 21, 2025
Mike Tomlin continued a run of his own to have now gone 19 straight seasons without a losing record after the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Detroit Lions 29-24. It makes a playoff push increasingly unlikely for the Lions who need to win out from here with results going their way elsewhere now…
Woody Marks being made inactive removed the Houston Texans run treat, but the number-one ranked defence made the right plays, including a pick-six after only four minutes, to beat the Las Vegas Raiders 23-21.
Finally, Brock Purdy put on a Monday night clinic for the San Francisco 49ers to thrash Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts 48-27. The Niners quarterback threw for 295 yards and five touchdowns to wrap up Week 16.
3 Takeaways From Week 16
Rams v Seahawks Thriller
We’re at the point of the NFL season where the floor on excitement can hit basement levels as some teams check out early. However, the LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks put on a show to hit the ceiling in Week 16.
The Rams led the Seahawks by 16 points and had just intercepted Sam Darnold with nine minutes and 48 seconds to play in the fourth quarter. They had possession in their own territory to be in control of the game and a 98.8% chance of winning according to to ESPN Analytics. However, a string of three-and-out possessions for the Rams saw the Seahawks tie the game with less than seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before claiming the win in overtime.
When I watch teams like the Rams and Seahawks, while being a Giants fan, I feel like I’m watching a different football league.
— 𝙅𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙨 🏆 (@AbdulCarterMVP) December 19, 2025
It’s the second loss in Rams history when leading by 16+ points in the fourth quarter. Incredibly, they became the first team in NFL history to lose after registering 500 yards of offence and a +3 turnover margin.
The monumental collapse could come back to bite the Rams who once looked like one of the best teams in the NFL and a major Super Bowl contender. They’re now the No 6 seed and third in the NFC West following the 49ers win over the Colts.
NFC West Winner: Seahawks – $1.83, 49ers – $3.30, Rams – $3.75
Williams Wills Bears To Victory (Again)
Caleb Williams entered the NFL under pressure as a rookie and, for the most part, failed to live up to expectations. However, with a new coach and a new season, he’s growing into the quarterback many predicted coming out of college. His numbers late in games are simply incredible, and his pass for the Chicago Bears to beat the Green Bay Packers is an instant classic.
REVIEWED AND CONFIRMED!!!
Caleb Williams' game-winning TD is the FIRST throw this season to earn a +2 on the PFF Grade scale (the highest grade possible)
It is just the 31st throw in PFF history, including preseason and playoffs, to earn a +2pic.twitter.com/N6fNYnBPMH
— Dalton Wasserman (@CFB_Dalton) December 21, 2025
According to Next Gen Stats, the Bears win probability sat as low as 0.5% before recovering an onside kick trailing 16-9 coming out of the two-minute warning. It’s the fifth-most improbable win in the NGS era (since 2016).
In doing so, Williams tied Hall of Famer Peyton Manning for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in a season by a player under 25-years old in NFL history. Chicago now has six wins this season after trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter.
Dolphins Quit On Tua
The Miami Dolphins have added some respectability to their NFL season of late. So, in the wake of a few wins and some security in his job, Mike McDaniel did what any smartest-guy-in-the-room coach would do and benched Tua Tagovailoa.
He looked like a genius at the break…
Quinn Ewers in his first career start at halftime:
– 10/12
– 109 Passing Yards
– 104.5 Passer RatingThe Dolphins may have found a GEM 💎 pic.twitter.com/ic3P1Auy5V
— Polymarket Football (@PolymarketBlitz) December 21, 2025
But after the Dolphins were embarrassed in a second-half as they collapsed to the Cincinnati Bengals with rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers throwing two picks in the process, the game ended as most had anticipated.
Apparently giving Miami “the best chance to win,” Ewers didn’t look up to it despite McDaniel patting himself on the back post-game:
“A lot of venom and anger just toward the result in the third and fourth quarter, but as I take a step back, I feel like there was some positive stuff going on with it being [Ewers’] first start. It wasn’t too big for him.”
With indications that Ewers will continue to start over Tagovailoa moving forward, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be happy to see the chaotic quarterback situation opposite them in Week 17.
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