Week 10 of the NFL season is complete, so we’re casting an eye over every game, identifying the big takeaways and digging into the markets.
Around The NFL
The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders played out a 10-7 snooze-fest to open up Week 10, but the rest of the week made up for it in the end.
International football continued, this time in Berlin, where the Indianapolis Colts needed a Jonathan Taylor touchdown in overtime to beat the Atlanta Falcons 31-25. Once again, Taylor led the way to rush for 148 yards in the 4th quarter and overtime to seal the win.
In his second career start Tyler Shough produced the goods to connect on 17 of his 25 pass attempts for 282 yards and two touchdowns. In earning the New Orleans Saints the 17-7 victory over the Carolina Panthers, he became the first Saints quarterback to win a game since 1981.
Tyler Shough's statistical ranks among QBs this week through the early slate:
1st in passer rating (128.9)
2nd in EPA per dropback (0.24)
1st in yards per attempt (10.4)
3rd in completion % (70.4%) pic.twitter.com/oW5hsLhUrr— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 9, 2025
The Chicago Bears needed some Caleb Williams heroics in the fourth quarter to come back to beat the New York Giants 24-20. Brian Daboll is without a job follow New York’s latest collapse. The big collapse of the day came later, though. With a 19-point lead entering the 4th quarter, the Jacksonville Jaguars fell asleep. Davis Mills, in response, let it rip. The Houston Texans quarterback – filling in for the concussed C.J. Stroud – completed 11 of 20 passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns before scrambling to score the winner with 0:31 left to play.
DAVIS FREAKING MILLS EVERYONE!!!!
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/ZNXGqABTCR
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 9, 2025
While plenty anticipated a comeback as the Miami Dolphins raced out to a 16-0 lead, the Buffalo Bills couldn’t find it. Just a week after beating the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills lost straight up as -9 favourites in Miami.
As expected, the Baltimore Ravens are looking more like themselves with the return of Lamar Jackson. They’ve quietly won three on the bounce after beating the Minnesota Vikings 27-19. The key, however, hasn’t been in the return of Jackson (although that has helped), but the improvement of their defence.
The New York Jets offence managed only 62 total yards in the first half but the special teams unit scored two touchdowns to lead the Cleveland Browns 14-7 at the break. From there, the Jets hung on to secure just their second win of the NFL season.
Drake Maye and the New England Patriots might be a problem…
We keep waiting for Maye to show signs of a stumble. He’s can’t play this well, surely? Now 8-2 following their 28-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Patriots are threatening to contend.
The Seattle Seahawks have moved to 7-2 with a dominant 44-22 win over the Arizona Cardinals. They’re dominating defensively to lay a solid platform for Sam Darnold to command the offence. They added the sort of running game they’ve been lacking this week, too. In contrast, the Los Angeles Rams – also 7-2 – are doing it all with the ball. Their 42-26 win over the San Francisco 49ers is the latest argument for Matthew Stafford to win the Most Valuable Player award this season.
Regular programming resumed for the Detroit Lions as they handled the Washington Commanders with relative ease in their 44-22 win. In a program we’ve seen a few times already this season, Aaron Rodgers struggled under pressure as his Pittsburgh Steelers fell to the Los Angeles Chargers 25-10.
3 Takeaways From NFL Week 10
The Top 3 MVP’s Candidates
Who had Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye and Jonathan Taylor on their bingo card for favourites to win the Most Valuable Player award halfway through the NFL season?
Stafford has propelled himself onto the first line of betting to win MVP at $4 after throwing four touchdowns without an interception in each of his last three games. He’s on track for 47 touchdowns despite the concerns around his back throughout the preseason.
Maye won’t go away in the market to be alongside Stafford at $4. He doesn’t quite have the numbers Stafford does, but the story line will go a long way to see him in contention if he keeps this up. The Patriots becoming the #1 seed in the AFC ($3.20) would help, too.
He’d need to become the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to win it, but Jonathan Taylor is putting himself in the conversation. He rushed for 228 yards after contact in Week 10, forcing 11 missed tackles along the way. In doing so, he joined Peterson, Jim Brown and Derrick Henry as the only running backs with multiple career games with 200+ yards and 3+ rushing touchdowns.
So often considered a quarterback award Taylor is doing well to even be in the mix at $6.
Giants Melt Down Again
In isolation, the New York Giants losing to the Chicago Bears isn’t worth firing Brian Daboll over. It’s a result most anticipated heading in. However, it’s the manner in which the defeat transpired and it’s mirror image to recent defeats in the past that has seen him relieved as head coach.
Against the Cowboys, Broncos, and Bears the Giants had a 92.3%, 99.3%, and 96.9% chance of winning late in the 4th quarter. Brian Daboll lost all of them. The odds of that happening is 1 in 60,000. pic.twitter.com/29NxNr7gXn
— ً (@JoeSchoenMVP) November 9, 2025
Jaxson Dart and the Giants offence did enough through three quarters to build a lead. They genuinely looked good as they cruised into the 4th quarter within touching distance of victory. But as we, and the front office has seen too often, the defence proved incapable of finding key defensive stops.
The issues late in games is further used to question Daboll’s risk management when you put it alongside his willingness to see Dart get hit in the game of progress. He’s seemed happy to let his inexperienced quarterback learn by being bashed rather than coaching him in ways to avoid it.
Dart will benefit from the decision to part ways with Daboll. The Giants franchise will soon enough, too.
The Patriots Are Back
That wasn’t very long, was it?
After years of dominance, a brief moment in obscurity is all the rest of the NFL was blessed with before the New England Patriots became Super Bowl contenders once again. At 8-2 to lead the AFC, the Patriots are into $19 to win Super Bowl LX. While winning it this year still appears unlikely, they’re on an unquestionable trajectory towards one in the coming years.
In only his second NFL season, Drake Maye looks like a veteran. He’s producing at an MVP level and still has room to improve in his accuracy and short down plays. Josh McDaniels is working wonders as the offensive coordinator while Mike Vrabel is proving to be the head coach New England had been searching for in the wake of Bill Belichick.
In their favour this season, the Patriots benefit from the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL for their opponents to combine for a win percentage of just .357, placing them as $3.20 favourites to finish as the #1 seed.
AFC Number 1 Seed Market: Colts – $3.40, Bills – $5.50, Broncos – $6, Chiefs – $8.50, Chargers – $13, Jaguars – $51
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