Week 16 of the NFL season is complete, so we’re casting an eye over every game, identifying the big takeaways and digging into the markets.
Around The NFL
The Los Angeles Chargers got Week 16 of the NFL season underway with a 34-27 win over the Denver Broncos. Shortly after, the Kansas City Chiefs moved to 14-1 with a win over the Houston Texans. Still, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are yet to score 30+ points in a game.
Lamar Jackson kept himself in the hunt to win Most Valuable Player with three touchdown passes as the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17.
Lamar Jackson: 1.5% Turnover Worthy Play Rate this season
Lowest among all QBs 👀 pic.twitter.com/Pn4KFFeIo4
— PFF (@PFF) December 23, 2024
Joe Burrow has been out of this world, but the Cincinnati Bengals defence finally held up their end of the bargain for the second week in a row, keeping the Cleveland Browns to -0.337 EPA per play and 3.8 yards per play on their way to a 24-6 victory. Meanwhile, both the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles struggled for defence at times. Jayden Daniels had the last say in the game, leading Washington to a last-gasp 36-33 win.
The Detroit Lions, despite the injuries, are unstoppable at the moment. They did it easy to beat the Chicago Bears 34-17. Caleb Williams did put in another encouraging performance for the Bears moving forward, though.
Caleb Williams has put up:
•3,271 passing yards
•19 TDs
•5 INTs
•89.32 passer ratingIn a season where:
•His head coach was fired
•His OC was fired
•Half his below average OL is injuredIf you say “Caleb Sucks” you are either a hater or are uneducated. The kid is… pic.twitter.com/MVrv9MhakM
— JAY🤘🏽🐻⬇️ Kings of the NORTH (@Directhim) December 22, 2024
In beating the Arizona Cardinals 36-30, the Carolina Panthers beat a team over .500 or better for the first time since Week 3 of the NFL season.
Michael Penix made his first start in the NFL and kept the Atlanta Falcons alive in the process. They’re still in the hunt for the postseason following their 34-7 win over the lowly New York Giants. Almost just as lowly, the New York Jets left fans baffled with some of their decision making throughout the 19-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. They certainly don’t do any favours for themselves.
Jonathan Taylor led the Indianapolis Colts to a 38-30 win over the Tennessee Titans. Although, it’s some concern that the Colts led 38-7 midway through the third quarter.
The Minnesota Vikings are keeping up with the Lions after beating the Seattle Seahawks 27-24. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills kept their place on the first line of betting to win Super Bowl LIX while sneaking past the New England Patriots 24-21.
It’s the time of year the Las Vegas Raiders offer hope for the next, and did just that in beating the Jacksonvilla Jaguars 19-14. Unfamiliar with the season being over at this point, the San Francisco 49ers are officially out of playoff contention following their 29-17 defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins.
In one of the big surprises this week, the Dallas Cowboys – after being eliminated from playoff contention themselves – claimed a 26-24 victory over Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
3 Takeaways From Week 16
What We Learned In Commanders v Eagles
The first learning: Jayden Daniels all but locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
The Washington Commanders turned the ball over five times, but their quarterback canceled them out with five touchdowns while leading his team to a 36-33 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Daniels found 57 yards on the final drive, throwing a game-winning touchdown with only six seconds to play. The win moves the Commanders to 10-5 for the season. It’s their best record since winning the Super Bowl in 1991.
The second: Philly needs Hurts and the passing game.
While Saquon Barkley has been incredible all season, he can only take the Eagles so far on his own. His heroics kept the Eagles relevant throughout a difficult opening few weeks. He is capable of a game-winning play in the biggest moments in the last few weeks. However, the Eagles need the passing game to be true contenders.
Jalen Hurts left the field with a concussion and didn’t return. As expected, the Eagles reverted to a run-heavy offence that, while effective at times, struggled at others. The lack of offence translated into a disappointing defence as Washington worked up the field all too easily, combining to go 9/16 on 3rd and 4th downs.
We can put it down to a bad day at the office for Vic Fangio’s defence. The offence, however, could too one-dimensional if they can’t improve the passing game upon Hurts’ return.
Handing Out The KOach of the Year Award
“Kevin O’Connell is a good coach with a young and hungry roster. Dismiss the Minnesota Vikings at your own peril.” – NFC Season Preview
The Minnesotta Vikings opened the NFL season with a wild win total set at 7.5 with the Over netting $2.25. Now 13-2 following their 27-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks, the Vikings are in the hunt for top spot in the NFC and sit on the third line of betting to win the conference at $6.50.
Sam Darnold added further to his argument to becoming Minnesotta’s long-term answer at quarterback with another three touchdown passes. It helps when you can throw to Justin Jefferson who caught two of those touchdowns to go along with 144 yards.
But while Mike McDaniel was given too much credit for creating a one-sided Miami Dolphins last season and Antonio Pierce vibing the Las Vegas to a strong finish to the NFL season, O’Connell again flew under the radar of impactful coaches in the league. He rarely rates a mention, but once again, the Vikings are exceeding expectations.
"It's the most disrespected 13-2 team I've ever seen."
It's okay, @CSimmsQB. We like it this way.
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/IatMOnKV4J
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 23, 2024
By winning another close one, the Vikings are now 25-9 in one-score games – the second-best mark in NFL history.
O’Connell gets the best out of his players at all times. Kirk Cousins isn’t the player he was last season under O’Connell for the Atlanta Falcons in this one. In contrast, Darnold isn’t the player he has been throughout his hole NFL career. O’Connell is a magician that isn’t given enough credit.
Here, he’s the Coach of the Year.
Rams Ramping Up At The Right Time
Injuries derailed things for the Los Angeles Rams to start the NFL season with a 1-4 record. Still, given the talent on the roster and the height of the ceiling should everything align, there was a sense that if the Rams could get healthy at the right time, they’d become contenders.
They’re officially a Super Bowl LIX threat at $26 following their 19-9 win over the New York Jets to move one game clear in the division and $1.08 to win it.
Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are healthy. With them, Matthew Stafford is capturing the sort of form that will have opposing teams nervous at this time of the year.
The Rams offensive line allowed zero sacks for the third-straight game, marking the second-longest streak in franchise history and the first time they’ve accomplished the feat since 2013.
— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) December 22, 2024
While it isn’t how Sean McVay drew it up, the early-season struggles taught a young defence valuable lessons.
LA is better than their 9-5 record suggests. There is still potential for further improvement in the coming weeks, too. At home next week as $1.40 and -5.5 favourites to the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams can go a long way to securing their spot in the playoffs with a win.
NFL Odds & Futures
Despite an unconvincing 24-21 win over the New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills remain as favourites to win Super Bowl LIX at $4.60.
After their hard-fought 27-19 win over the Houston Texans, the Kansas City Chiefs are alongside the Detroit Lions on the second line of betting at $5, in from $6.50 only a week earlier. The Philadelphia Eagles have moved the other way, out to $7.50 from $5.50.
The big movers of the week, however, are the LA Rams who enter the Top 10 in the market at $26.
| Team | Current Price | Last Week’s Price |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | $4.60 | $4.20 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | $5.00 | $6.50 |
| Detroit Lions | $5.00 | $5.50 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | $7.50 | $5.50 |
| Baltimore Ravens | $7.50 | $8.50 |
| Minnesota Vikings | $11.00 | $13.00 |
| Green Bay Packers | $13.00 | $13.00 |
| Los Angeles Rams | $26.00 | $- |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | $34.00 | $26.00 |
| Houston Texans | $34.00 | $26.00 |