Wild Card Weekend of the NFL season is complete, so we’re casting an eye over every game, identifying the big takeaways and digging into the markets.
Around The NFL
A rare off-night for Justin Herbert allowed the Houston Texans to handle the Los Angeles Chargers with relative ease to win 32-12 to open Wild Card Weekend. Herbert had thrown only three interceptions all season and never thrown more than two in a game throughout his NFL career. However, he finished up with four in this one as the Texans defence ran riot.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry ran riot in their own right for the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-14. The pair combined for 299 yards on 50 carries and played a leading role in building Baltimore’s 21-0 lead at the break.
Todd Monken added a new terrifying wrinkle to the offense putting Derrick Henry in at Wildcat and Lamar Jackson in motion.
Look how much Lamar influenced the Steelers defense. Took out both inside linebackers. pic.twitter.com/bP2tuugUWV
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) January 13, 2025
There was never too much doubt in the Buffalo Bills getting past the Denver Broncos. Denver scored first and kept the game close through to halftime, but Josh Allen and the Bills offence found their footing in the end on their way to a 31-7 win. Buffalo’s running game ended as a key feature of the offence as James Cook finished with 120 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.
The Philadelphia Eagles are simply better than the Green Bay Packers. They’re stacked with talent and veterans, and proved too much for a young Packers group still looking to take the step up to contender status. Jalen Hurts didn’t put up the biggest numbers on his return, but he didn’t need to in the end. Saquon Barkley picked up 119 rushing yards and the Eagles defence played their part – as usual – to win 22-10.
The neutral NFL fan will be sad to see Baker Mayfield’s season end with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers going down to the Washington Commanders 23-20, but Jayden Daniels gives everybody someone to cheer for in the playoffs. The rookie quarterback again played beyond his years and experience, finishing with 250 yards in his playoff debut.
Oh dear, Darnold…
There was talk only a fortnight ago about Sam Darnold playing well enough to earn a $50 million contract. Now he might not even be a starter in the league. For the second straight week, with the pressure on, Darnold crumbled. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford continues to dominate in the post-season, leading the LA Rams to a convincing 27-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.
Matthew Stafford as a Ram in the #NFLPlayoffs:
🐏 15 total TDs
🐏 5-1 recordLA is a win away from the NFC Championship Game 😤 pic.twitter.com/Bg2xz16Iu9
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2025
3 Takeaways From Wild Card Weekend
Horrible Herbert
Justin Herbert is a polarizing figure among NFL discourse. He’s a favourite of social media – analytics types, in particular. However, he’s yet to turn all of that positivity and optimism into post-season success.
He’s now played in three must-win games in his last three healthy seasons and lost them all.
How I’m watching the whole world realize Justin Herbert is a Social Media Quarterback… pic.twitter.com/FutafYxrCN
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) January 12, 2025
While we suspected he might face a tougher time of it against the Texans than he had done throughout the regular season…
“Justin Herbert has thrown just three interceptions all season. Only the Buffalo Bills have played with a better turnover differential, but Herbert will feel the pressure in this one. The Texans held quarterbacks to an 83.7 passer rating (3rd-best in the NFL) this season and finished with 49 sacks (4th).” – Red Zone Returns
Nobody quite saw this coming…
Out of 214 QB performances in the playoffs over the last 10 seasons, that Justin Herbert game ranks 213th in EPA per pass play.
Only Brian Hoyer's game for the Texans in a 30-0 loss to the Chiefs in the 2015 playoffs ranked lower.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) January 12, 2025
With three interceptions all season, Herbert threw four in this game alone. They weren’t all his fault. The last pick came late with a throw he wouldn’t have attempted had the game been closer. Still, it’s now a trend in his career at this point of an NFL season.
He now has a playoff reputation to shake. Already part of one of the worst postseason collapse of all time when falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars two years ago, Herbert is now 0-2 in the AFC playoffs.
Not A Normal Rookie
“Quarterbacks making their playoff debut against those with playoff experience haven’t performed well against the spread historically.” – Red Zone Returns
Jayden Daniels isn’t a normal quarterback making his playoff debut against one with playoff experience…
In NFL history, there have been 3 instances of a team having 0 turnovers & 0 punts in a game behind a rookie starting QB (reg or post).
All 3 were by the @Commanders & Jayden Daniels (Week 2, Week 3 & tonight). pic.twitter.com/Pz3qTO9PUy
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) January 13, 2025
You wouldn’t know it was Daniels’ first NFL playoff game if you just looked at how calm he looked and the poise he played with. Did he know?
The Offensive Rookie of the Year to be finished 24-for-35 for 268 passing yards and two touchdowns. Notably, he didn’t turn the ball over and came up with the biggest play of the game at the biggest moment.
In need of a first down to all but win the game, and with Calijah Kancey all over him like a cheap suit, Daniels broke free and found the sticks to set up the winner.
Jayden Daniels was contacted by Calijah Kancey 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage on his first-down run, gaining 10.3 yards after contact to set up a @Commanders' game-winning field goal as time expired. https://t.co/t5t6A0elOf
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 13, 2025
He’s not a normal rookie quarterback. Still, he will need to find something special if the Commanders are to upset the Detroit Lions as $4.80 and +8.5 underdogs next week.
Time Up For Tomlin?
Another Pittsburgh Steelers season has ended on the treadmill of mediocrity.
While they manage to get there, which is better than many, the Steelers have now gone eight years without a playoff win. They can look like a top team at times throughout the season, but when it counts, they’re average.
Mike Tomlin is a great coach. He’s worked wonders with teams many didn’t consider even average. However, that seems to be the ceiling right now. George Pickens produced one of the great interviews following the loss.
#Steelers WR George Pickens says he’s seen signs of growth from the offense.
Reporter: “Does that make you optimistic going forward?”
Pickens: “Nah.” https://t.co/yqawOeKyEW
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 12, 2025
While seeing signs of growth in himself and the players around him, he’s not optimistic about the franchise moving forward. Is Tomlin a reason for that lack of optimism?
It would be hard to let go of Tomlin. It might not be the right call in the end. Still, it feels like the right call for now.
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