We’re over a week away from Super Bowl LIX, but there is still plenty to cover and bets to consider for the last game of the NFL season.
Here we go again.
Kansas City Chiefs v Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl.
The two last met in Super Bowl LVII where the Chiefs won the first of their back-to-back championships. Back for Super Bowl LIX, the Chiefs have now reached the decider in five of the last six seasons after beating the San Franciso 49ers 25-22 in last year’s game.
Kansas City opened the NFL season as favourites and this marks the ninth time in the last 12 seasons that the favourite has made it to the Super Bowl. As current -1.5 favourites, it’s worth noting that nine of the last ten winners have covered the spread in the process.
Patrick Mahomes might not be the Most Valuable Player this season, but he’s the best player in the NFL. He’s 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in the final game.
Points piled up for both teams in the Conference Championships. The Philadelphia Eagles hung 55 points on the Washington Commanders – the most ever in a conference championship game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs scored more than 30 points for the first time this season. The total has been set at 48.5 points for Super Bowl LIX and has hit the over in both of Kansas City’s last two appearances.
The stage is set for another classic between the Chiefs and Eagles. Kansas City are looking to make history by becoming the first team in NFL history to win three in a row while Philadelphia is looking for redemption.
It’s the biggest fortnight on the NFL calendar, and while we’re still a long away out from kickoff, there are a couple of markets worth looking into already.
Underdogs Cashing In
The Philadelphia Eagles opened as underdogs in Super Bowl LVII before flipping to favourites by kickoff. That is unlikely to happen again, though. The NFL betting public has learned their lesson, and despite what the numbers say, Patrick Mahomes is a difference maker.
Throw the numbers out when he’s involved at this point of the season.
It won't surprise anyone that with Mahomes blocking them, the recent Bills and Ravens have the highest average reg-season DVOA over any 5-year period for teams that didn't make a Super Bowl.
Pre-2000, best reg-season teams made Super Bowl much more often. pic.twitter.com/DoH8nY08nT
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) January 27, 2025
Still, there are some that appeal to the Eagles as underdogs.
First of all, underdogs are 4-0 against the spread in the last four Super Bowl’s. Favourites are often heavily backed and with the name recognition directed towards Mahomes, Travis Kelce and, in some ways, Taylor Swift, the Chiefs will again be popular.
From an EPA per play perspective, the Eagles had the better passing offence, rushing offence, passing defence and rushing defence throughout the NFL season. This team is stacked and, most importantly, relatively healthy.
They’ve been led by Saquon Barkley who has given New York Giants fans and ownership nightmares every week. Philly totalled 39 rushing touchdowns this season – the second-most in NFL history behind their 42 in 2022. Barkley has rushed for 2,447 yards ahead of Super Bowl LIV – the second-highest total in NFL history with only Terrell Davis managing more at 2,476 yards.
There is a lot to like about Philly’s chances of victory here. If we consider the Mahomes effect and the potential for this number to jump out to +2 and perhaps even +2.5 by kickoff, it’s worth keeping an eye on the underdogs.
The Other Guy
Saquon Barkley will be the focus for the Chiefs defence throughout the week. They’ll spend plenty of time on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, too.
“Brown caught six passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he consistently one his one-on-one matchups when the Commanders loaded the box in an attempt to contain Barkley.” – Brown Coming Good At The Right Time
That leaves us, and Jalen Hurts, looking towards Dallas Goedert.
The Chiefs give up the most yards to opposition tight ends in the NFL already. With Barkley such a threat to start with Brown then able to get himself into one-on-one matchups, there’s a chance Goedert becomes somewhat of an afterthought.
Dallas Goedert returned from knee injury in Week 18. Since then, has seen 24 targets on 83 routes. Wildly high 29% TPRR.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 27, 2025
He’s averaging 62.7 receiving yards in the post season on 15 receptions for 188 yards and a touchdown. The seven-year veteran has been targeted more by Hurts than any other reciever, catching 80% of his targets for 11.7 yards per reception.
With his line set at 51.5 for this one, we’re looking over. His 7.5 yards in the first quarter should get a look, too. If he’s targeted, there’s a good chance he clears it on one catch.
Fading Barkley
Saquon Barkley posted one of the biggest rushing yard lines in NFL history last week and got halfway to clearing it on his very first carry.
SAQUON BARKLEY 60 YARD TD ON THE EAGLES FIRST PLAY 🤯😱
UNREAL.
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/z1nwtMZhDP— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 26, 2025
Currently set at 112.5, we have to consider fading him here. We know Steve Spagnuolo will have something up his sleeve with two weeks to prepare.
Barkley has managed a rush of 22+ yards in eight of his last ten games. While it might only take one carry to get him well on his way to clearing it, history suggests cracking 120 yards is unlikely. Michael Pittman was the last to do it in 2003.
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